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oil and energy in the short run | 19 comments (19 topical, editorial)

Re: oil and energy in the short run (3.00 / 0) (#15)
by finnsawyer on Sun Dec 5th, 2004 at 09:50:56 AM MST
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Whether China is moving to democracy is debatable. That may be wishful thinking. What is not, is that their own oil production is falling. Also, look at the problems they have producing coal. Over 160 miners died in a coal mine explosion and they were 5 MILES from the mine entrance. The riches of Siberia must look real attractive to the Chinese, not to mention Southeast Asia. History is replete with nations doing things and starting wars that others were convinced they'd never do. You speak of rich nations competing for resources. Well, before world war two Japan was rich in technology and poor in resources, and that's exactly where China's heading. The parallels are striking. I could see the Chinese grabbing Taiwan and, if they get away with that then going after Siberia. The whole thing would depend on whether they think their nuclear deterrent is credible. Do we write off the West Coast to stop them? Would the Russians do anything or just give in?
GeoM
[ Parent ]

Re: oil and energy in the short run (3.00 / 0) (#16)
by skravlinge on Mon Dec 6th, 2004 at 01:02:40 PM MST
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Japan face the same today, they have rich technology but not very much resources. The Japan of today is a democracy, In the 40th ist was the opposite, so they solve their problem today with trade. Moderen nations get their welth from trading (domestic or export/import), and its far better and less risky than war. I hope you are wrong regarding China. The Russians will sell whatever China want. Regarding Taiwan its up to the rest of the world to try to avoid any threat against Taiwan. I think IF Mainland China succed in transform to a democracy, Taiwan maybe would like to join a winning team. Its still a billion in China who lives a preindustrial life. So it will take time before we see a modern China, and I think thats not possible without democracy.
-- Always find the typos after posting!
[ Parent ]

Re: oil and energy in the short run (3.00 / 0) (#17)
by finnsawyer on Wed Dec 8th, 2004 at 08:57:52 AM MST
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Well, any thing can happen. Before World War Two the U. S. put an embargo on the export of scrap metals to Japan, which helped spark the war. Recently the Chinese were importing so much scrap steel from the U. S. that there was some talk of limiting it due to the run up in prices and the effect on local steel producers. When markets are denied to nations they do desperate things.

A country doesn't have to be democratic to be technologically advanced. Take a hard look at Germany before WW2. They had potential developements in place that would have greatly altered the outcome of the war. Basically, Hilter wasn't interested until it was too late. Hilter started the war and he lost it too, due to his attitudes. He was also looking for raw materials, namely oil.
GeoM
[ Parent ]

Re: oil and energy in the short run (3.00 / 0) (#19)
by skravlinge on Sat Dec 11th, 2004 at 07:25:49 AM MST
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I did not say it was impossible to have a modern techology in a non-democratic state, I said it will not last. History sometimes looks like its repet itself, but a closer look show history is a process in ONE direction. Do not trust much in learning of the future from past. A lot of generals have got into the war after planning like the last, this have a cost.
-- Always find the typos after posting!
[ Parent ]

oil and energy in the short run | 19 comments (19 topical, 0 editorial)

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