Solar flares or a high altitude nuke would turn the US into an instant 3rd world country. Maybe that's why the gov't is so bent about N Korea having nukes. Even they could do it. All you need is a ship and a missile.
One more reason to be able to go off-grid.
how high do you have to be to see all of the lower 48 and most all of canada?
50, 100, 150 miles high?
if you got a missle, all you need to do is get it up high enough
don't need very good targeting to deliver emp
a 10 yo with a joy stick is good enough to guide something like that.i
"lets see there kid, just get the thing over south dakota, and wait to press the little red button until you see this little altimeter guage read 113.4 miles, ok kid?"
its not the grid i am worried about, its the supertransformers that are going to present the biggest problem. it takes 6-12 months to build one on site, and there are only 1 or 2 companies left on the planet to build them, and they will be sold to the highest bidder you can be sure. depending on where you live, you might be in 2 or 3rd place on the waiting list.
bob g[ Parent ]
This spreading wave induces a high voltage-per-foot EMF in transmission lines and for large areas the angles and propagation speeds of waves in the cable work out so the voltage adds up for hundreds of miles. The power transmission line acts as an antenna that gathers the bomb's energy over a wide area, both along and crosswise to the line's run. When the transient finally gets to a transformer you're talking a high-voltage common-mode hit with energy levels orders of magnitude above a direct lightning strike.
The protection circuitry is inadequate so the transformer arcs over to ground and much of the energy is dissipated there, destroying it. Meanwhile imbalance in where the arcs form - and arcs to the secondary - map some of the energy into differential mode and couple it to the secondary, to propagate further and pop transformers and other equipment further down the line (even if the secondary lines aren't going in a direction where they also act as an efficient antenna to pick up and deliver the EMP in common mode).[ Parent ]
In fact the propagation of the EMP wave essentially mimics the original expanding spherical wavefront of the nuclear flash. The upper atmosphere acts as a down-converter to efficiently shift much of the energy of the flash from X/gamma-rays to near-DC EMP.
Think about the energy of a nuclear flash - igniting whole cities, burning "fossil shadows" of people into concrete, etc. Now turn much of that into a radio wave of low enough frequency that a power transmission line will pick up the energy from an area miles SIDEWAYS from itself and hundreds of miles along its length and dump it all into the transformer at the end of the run...[ Parent ]
The Kill range of a nuk is greatly exaggerated. Few bombs are large enough to burn whole cities. Kill range outside is many miles with lots of damage to buildings beyond that. Below ground kill range is blocks, rubble from buildings is more likely to kill you. Further reading (not the whole story): http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html?inpyield=500 Radiation effects are dependent on the bomb, often generalizations are based on the dirtiest bomb which have lower yields.
Think about it a moment, the claims of devastation are false. Japan cities nuked are still there? How can that be? Health in those cities has been extensively studied, health risks are no different form other japan cities. Those bombs were very dirty.
People within blocks of the bombs dropped in WWII were living until recently.
Don't get me wrong, the more distance the better!!
Have fun, Scott.[ Parent ]
For starters - health effects. Turns out health effects of radiation are extrapolated from high exposures (where they produce health effects strong enough to be measured) to low ones, on the assumption that the exposure/damage curve is linear. In fact it's far from linear - and for cancer it appears to be a power function: If it takes six mutations to go from normal cells to cancerous ones for a particular type (as it apparently does for long cancer) the rate goes up with the sixth power of exposure. So low doses are far less dangerous than assumed. (Also: Damaged cells tend to self-destruct and damaged fetuses abort, thus eliminating much of the damage after a short time.)
The problem with EMP is that the long wires collect the energy from a large area - like many square miles in the high-altitude EMP case - and concentrate it in the devices at their ends. Having even a very small fraction of a nuclear bomb "go off" inside an electronic component is a real bummer.[ Parent ]
LUNG cancer. B-(
You can get an idea of the number of mutations involved in a particular cancer type by plotting the incidence versus age on a log-liner graph. The slope of the line gives the exponent of the function, i.e. constant mutation rate and 6 mutations to cause cancer gives a slope of 6 (presuming the sample population hadn't gotten a head start by inheriting one or more of the mutations).[ Parent ]
Very interesting stuff, have any links for further reading?
dnix71 thanks for starting this post. Learned a lot today.
Thanks, Scott.[ Parent ]
Try searching for info on cancer incidence vs. age. Sometimes it's already plotted on a log-lin graph (because it tends to come out cleaner that way). Otherwise you can plot it yourself and see how well it fits a power law.
Were you around long enough for the radon scare? That was one that they extrapolated from lung cancer incidence in uranium miners (who also smoked like chimbneys and inhaled radioactive dust particles - think about the inverse-square law and what that means near a small radioactive particle stuck in one spot in tissue).[ Parent ]
Yes, even worse were the Ridiculous conditions required to do the home testing. Neighbors have noisy fan running 24/7 to air out their sump.
Radiation has been blamed for many things. Years ago I asked why they use Radiation for cancer treatment if its so bad?
Thanks, well look into it, worked in nuclear power industry years ago.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
A lot of cancer treatments take advantage of this and consist of ALMOST killing off the normal cells of the cancerous type or in the cancer's location, in order to kill the weaker cancer cells. That's why chemotherapy makes the patient really sick (cells poisoned almost to death, lining of the intestines not renewing at the full rate) and makes the hair (which, like parts of the intestines, is built of rapidly-reproducing cells) fall out. It's also why melanoma is such a bitch if you don't catch it when it's just a spot: The reactions that make melanin give the cell energy rather than costing it. So melanoma cells are HARDIER than normal cells.
Radiation is one of those things which can be used to kill off cells: The treatments try to kill off the cancerous cells while leaving enough of the good ones intact to keep the patient alive. The main risk is that some of the other cells it damages might not suicide, be killed off by the immune system, or just do nothing bad, but instead turn cancerous. Normally this would be a big deal. But if you ALREADY have an inoperable cancer, a small chance of getting ANOTHER one while killing it off is a good bet.[ Parent ]
Nothing travels faster than light. "propagates" faster than light is not possible. [ Parent ]
Rgds
Damon"Once you have licked the windows of freedom your tongue gets stuck."[ Parent ]
Detonating above the atmosphere... Vacuum. Where is the optical dense medium? Don't see it!-)[ Parent ]
Damon
PS. I was hoping to forget all my teenage angst about MAD, along with corny numbers such as Ultravox's "Dancing with tears in m yEyes" (yes, that's how it sounds)!"Once you have licked the windows of freedom your tongue gets stuck."[ Parent ]
Scott.[ Parent ]
Point your laser pointer at Polaris. Swing it to point at Sirius over a period of ten seconds. The point of intersection of the light with a hypothetical sphere at a distance of one lightyear moves far faster than the speed of light. But the light itself moved at good old C.
Similarly (and neglecting non-unity refractive index) the line of intersection of the wavefront from the nuclear flash with a particular level of the atmosphere moves outward from the point below the bomb at far faster than C at first, dropping to C when the light's direction is tangent to the sphere. (After that it "speeds up" again - and again notice the quotes.)[ Parent ]
Basically the smart grid in the end will make grid tied electricity cheaper and hopefully reduce some people's demand for it. I don't know much about the "Super transformers" but I would like to know more about them. Mostly the smart gird is just to track price changes and demand fluctuations throughout the day. I know a lot of people are worried about stuff with the grid but I really think in the end we will be better for it.
Please explain how spending billions studying smart grid followed up by spending trillions to upgrade the grid will save me money?? 1 trillion divided by population of USA is $4,000 each. My electric bill is $60/mo or $720/yr. Free electricity for 5.5yr will pay it off, 20% reduction will take 25 yr to pay off, not counting the time value of money. This did not count there are two living here, further extending payback beyond 50 yr.
In summery smart grid will NEVER save me or you money. What it will do is make a few rich as all these big ideas do.
All smart grid articles are nothing more than a sales pitch, with just as few facts. Exactly how will it save me money?
"it may not be possible to keep the lights on at all much of the time."
Why?[ Parent ]
Because without a better a sense of what's being used where, and the ability to encourage (and send signals for) demand-side management, it may be difficult to balance the grid against short-term fluctuations and (say) long-term wind lulls.
Within the stimulus package more than $35 billion is allocated to study smart grid. http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/news/Smart_Grid_Stimulus_money_comes_in_many_forms_Money _to_flow_by_April_Smart_Grid_a_better_2009_investment_than_alternative_energy.html
GE is claiming only $46 to $117 Billion to build smart grid. Therefore it's a lie. http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/02/02/smart-grid-goes-mainstream-with-general-electri c-super-bowl-ad/
Real Estimates of smart grid are in the Trillions of dollars. http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/06/news/economy/smart_grid/index.htm
Just how much information does the utility need? They need to know demand... look at their power meter. Forecasting demand is not difficult. How much power is available, hope they know this! We do not need revamping of the grid to accomplish these goals. CA had problems which were self created. No problems the years before. The demand did not change and cause the problem.
Dynamic demand management (DDM) Peak times charge more. Benefits: Get peoples attention by doubling their electric bills if they don't pay attention. Solar produces best during these peaks, making solar more affordable along with netmetering. Business need to pay the price too. So far I see only retail paying.
Claims: if the electric car takes off the demand will take down the grid. More lies. My electrical cost are on par with gas cost. The electric vehicle uses much less. Low fees at night will support the demand at night when the grid is unused. Well within its current capabilities.
Sister in law lives in San Diego, CA, had optional TOS metering choice. Peak was at $0.25/kwhr. Night cost $0.05/kwhr. Designed system to charge a battery at night, discharge back into the grid during the peak rate. She worked during the day, turning AC off at peak times allowed this idea to work. Daily Electrical cost were free. Equipment paid off first year! She was not interested. Bummer. Since then the Equipment cost lower, would be worth it at 15/5 today.
Electric company found the only users of TOS were people with netmetering, within the year the peak rate was lowered couple times down to $0.15 for peak and upped night rate to $0.10. Negating TOS benefit.
DamonHD, I wish you lived next door. We could have lots of fun discussing things over a beer.
Way too many links to read in this thread.
Anybody know if car ignition coils get cooked, like they always do in the movies?
If so, HDDs, VCR tapes, Margarita blender, dual rotor stator, magnet wire on the spool, etc, can't be far behind? (funny how they always find a diesel without an ignition coil or computer but the starter motor works?)
Grid isn't much good if the only thing working is incandescent bulbs stored in the closet when they were changed to CFLs. G-Ghurd.info[ Parent ]
I would be interested to read what the military has put together for EMP weapons against others, and EMP protective measures for our side. Its quite possible most of the trucks and Hummvees have a diesel with mechanical fuel injection, and vehicles with modern electronics "might" have some type of Faraday cage or similar device?[ Parent ]
Thank you for your kind words! Had fun today. Learned a few things making it a great day.
To answer your question check out post #21 by DanG. Read all his links, their great.
Modern vehicles are well shielded for EMC, turns out to be good for EMP. If not running during the EMP have a 90% change of working after, may need some repair. Zero if running during the EMP. Starter motors should be fine, heavy conductors will survive if short wires. The electronics to control, nope. Simple switch with relay good change still work.
More importantly your dead. Where does the food come from? How to pay for it? Think our government is prepared? look at New Orleans even today.
Solar flares create a dc current that saturates the core, and over heats the transformer on a 20 second to 2 minute time scale. the voltage involved, 1-100 volts per mile, isn't high enough to damage the system, if your line can handle a floating neutral with 100Kvdc on it, you just need to unground it, for stability reasons they would never do that, but rather switch in the resistors, which are mentioned in various reports as costing a few tens of billions to install everywhere.
Real life only 98% of the circuit breakers open, but that one in 50 that fries is still enough to kill the grid for a month.[ Parent ]
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/26/national/main3879549.shtml
http://www.newser.com/story/20442/engineers-goof-turned-out-florida-lights.html[ Parent ]
Not just the Giant MAIN transformers-- but ALL the hundreds of thousands of smaller transformers too.
Here's the 'Official' 2008 Government EMP (BIG) report. (They finally did some meaningful testing this time!)
http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf
They've even had 'Super EMP' technology for over 10 years in many nations.
Maybe they should go back to the ol' reliable TUBE (dumb grid) control. (esp. in nuclear power plants)
Old F
Slippery slope stuff involving more and more centralization enabling more control of your life.
Don't get me started.
We need more decentralization and independence in order to be more secure as citizens.
Just a side I didn't see mentioned
Tom
The Truth is the Truth, even if no one believes it; and a lie is a lie even if everyone believes it
For the past 20 years much of the supposed gain has been the increase in utilization of resources and reduction in residential electrical consumption. In fact it worked so well in some areas that they had to bump up the electrical rate because they started losing money, as 2% annual growth wasn't countering inflation, where it was before.
The reinvestment rate is at an all time low, just look at the number of transformers being ordered. At the current rate it appears they expect the new ones to last 100 years.[ Parent ]
This is a guy who actually help rig sensors on US and English Warships when they would be berthed alongside ocean-going barges 20 or more miles offshore - then gently probed with small order EMP pulses and the data from sensors they added would be used to extrapolate what the real damage would be. He was of the school the EMP pulse was comparable to a camera strobe flash - lightning...
What he didn't know is I had just been re-reading my collection of Scientific American Magazine and they had a long essay on 3rd generation weapons.. (1987) The linked article here captures some of the info in brief form:
http://www.futurescience.com/emp.html
Note the three types of EMP - with the third type lasting MINUTES. That is the one that won me $100.. I even gave him the magazine. The linked article glosses over it as 'heaving of the Earth's Magnetic Field' but its more complicated then that; the altitudes low molecular pressure: 1) keep the particles disassociated for a longer time and 2) prevent the plasma from cooling since there are so few molecules to absorb energetic particles.
Think of a plasma pancake 200 miles across amplifying the normal field using the stellar hot leftover plasma as power source on the Neutron & Ionizing radiation interactions already set up via EMP types one and two. (God help us if the nuclear device evnet happens when there is already solar ativity)
Anyhow - they also note The 1859 carrington flare as a sure thing - it's just a matter of when....
Electric utilities problems should be solved by the electric utilities NOT tax dollars, I do not care what their claims of cost are. If things are in need of fixing, increase my electrical rates to reflect the REAL cost. Competition will force a reality check in how they spend money.
Boost my rate above $0.22/kwhr. Solar becomes a very real option for everybody today. Claims of $1/w solar panels, if real the electric company should be worried. The 11 cents/kwhr I pay today is then too much.
Have fun, Scott.
i think somewhere in a dark cigar smoke filled room, the guys that try to control this mess have that figured out, once the public starts to see that they can produce their own power the utility companies start to lose customers, they need less coal so the coal producers lose money, the rails ship less so they lose money, they burn less natural gas, so the gas/oil companies sell less which upsets their markets, and perhaps worst of all in their mind is the gennie is forever out of the bottle.
once microgeneration really starts to be accepted as reality, there will be companies popping up everywhere to supply the equipment and the real new economy and the next bubble will start to inflate.
its just a matter of time, in my opinion for the numbers to come together in the proper order for it to make sense and then it will happen quite rapidly.
this among other things is why the utility industry does not reinvest any more than is absolutely necessary to keep the lights on, that and of course the profit margin for this day/quarter/year so the stock holder don't kick them off the board.
reinvesting reduced profits today/quarter/year, but might return profits later? but the investing world doesn't care much about some profits next year or decade and beyond, they want it now!
i don't see any rapid move to increased capacity, smart grid, rebuilding the grid or much of anything else that is very rapid anytime soon if ever, unless the money comes from some huge government program, but
the government is broke as a joke, and we the people have had about all we wanna give taken from us...
so there is the full circle, back to us, we don't wanna pay more taxes, so we look to see if there is more we can do for ourselves, and waaalaaa,,,microgeneration and the resulting very distributed and uncontrolled/untaxed generation that they have never wanted anyway.
i would say it is just about
"checkmate"
CMP is not afraid to upgrade, (or up the rates) they found out that if they don't it cost the company, and it's shareholders money. For if it is not kept up, it will go down when it is hard and expensive to fix it.
If we do want Smart Grid, it should be installed as old systems get replaced, most parts of the grid get changed out on a set schedal, if the upgrades are done then, then the extra cost is rather small.
As for privicy, on the consumer side, if it is an enectronic meter that lets them know how much each house is using at any time( then they don't need meter readers, more savings for them ), I can live with that, if they want to know what it is being used for, I don't want it, if they can sugest, or turn things off, fine as long as I have the final say in my house, say if they want to turn my water heater off, give me a way to turn it back on if I want it at that time.
As for EMP, if that happens we have bigger fish to fry, [ Parent ]
Also, is it just me or are there no political parties anymore? There is just Fox news and people who hate "Republicans". No one's views are represented anymore. [ Parent ]
