News article link

[JW]

I found this article,

http://dailynews.att.net/cgi-bin/news?e=pri&dt=040211&cat=scitech&st=scitechoil_energy_d



yehard_040211&src=abc#

some may find interesting, some may not.

-JW

[Homebrewed12vdc]

Thats interesting, I read a simalar article that the world only had 32 more years left of oil at the rate of consumption rit enow, I dont know how the figure this especially when not all oil fields are drilled yet, but they know more about it thatn me, I just think all engines should be made to run on vegi oil.

[BT Humble]

Have a read of this book - it'll really open your eyes:

http://www.museletter.com/partys-over.html

BTH

[windstuffnow]

  They could drastically extend the dino usage by building vehicles that get 2 or 3 times the mileage right now instead of continuing to build gas guzzlers.  Makes no sense to me at all.

  If you consider the growth rate its probably much less.  Considering we have a habit of doubling the population every 10 years or so... we may be on dino farts in 20 years.... ;o)

  Make you think...

windstuff Ed

[monte350c]

Being a Canuck I can't resist:

http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Athabasca-Tar-Sands

The lights won't go out anytime soon.

Ted.

[zbotrobot]

Are we to be concerned about fossil fuel use in a moral ethical sence or something?  Someone tell this guy the whole point culturally speaking IS TO WASTE resources for the interest of "national security" or whatever else sounds good. Any wise overall implimentation of technology, culturally speaking, IS CENTURIES AWAY, and that my friend is the story of the world... Today what it is all about is the creation of powerful and impressive exhibits for a future museam of EXACTLY what mistakes to not repeat in the coming 3+ billion years. Mankind will never forget the time in which we are living. The doom doers.

[Chagrin]

Yeah. This is becoming a "hot topic" lately.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I for one, am stocking up on dehydrated yogurt for when the time comes.

[monte350c]

I should add, reason for this link, there's still going to be a lot of relatively cheap fossil power around for the foreseeable future.

That's the competition. Price and ease of use.

We ARE getting closer, wind in many cases these days doesn't cost any more than fossil power.

Wind, solar, other renewables - advantages obvious.

But the fossil competition will be there for a while yet.

How to wean baby off the fossil fuel bottle?

That's the big question!

Ted.

[kell]

Look for an article called "The Oil We Eat" in the February Harper's.  Very interesting.

One thing about this article got me confused.  I read in a column called "The Straight Dope" (in the New York Press newspaper) that a food "calorie" is actually one thousand (heat) calories.  The author of "The Oil We Eat" doesn't make a distinction.  Which is it?

[Wolfie1]

It is probably even more difficult to define how much oil may be usefully extracted. The important word here is 'usefully'.

Extracting oil from the ground requires energy: that is energy to drill and energy to pump. It takes a certain amount of energy to pump the oil up against gravity and the deeper it is, the more energy it takes. It's also true that the first gallon of oil from a well can be pumped for much less energy than the last gallon from it. In fact there reaches a point in every well that it doesn't make sense to pump any more. That point these days is when it costs more money to pump than what the oil is worth.

As prices rise, and possibly technology improves, the amount of oil that can be usefully extracted will be increased but at some point, the energy to extract the oil may become greater than the energy contained within the oil. At that point, there is no point in continuing to pump the oil if it is to be used only for fuel.

Even if you used non-fossil fuel methods to pump out the oil, you are not making the best use of that non-fossil fuel. The same may be true for the tar sands in Canada and elsewhere. Additional new strikes of oil will likely be deeper than the current existing oil fields and may not make sense to even start to drill.

What I am contending is that we could already be beyond the half way point if we consider only the useful oil rather than simple total reserves.

Martin.

[hvirtane]

First a side story:

Some years ago I talked with

the leader of the

big national research center of agriculture.

He said that according to his study,

if we eat food produced in this country (Finland)

80% of the price we pay is because of the consumed

oil to produce that food.

(In fact Finland has got more farming machinery per field area than any other country in the world.)

---

Some time ago there was a big talk here,

if one more nuclear power station

should be built here.

There were calculations to show

that amount of power could be made

by wind as well quite easily.

Some (bad) calculations were made

to show that wind power would have been

more costly than nuclear power,

even if in the Central Europe

it is cheaper than nuclear power

and we have got better winds...

In Finland there is

very very little wind power installed.

(We could install as much as Germany,

because our wind conditions

are better.)

All the oil here is imported.

---

I've calculated that

we could easily make all our power here

by wood, wastes, plant oils,

wind and water power.

All the traffic could be made

to use locally produced biogas, alcohol,

plant and pyrolysis oils.

---

But oil business is

a big powerful business

combined with the war technologies.

Even most of the car factories are the same,

which are producing weapons, too.

(You know Mizubishi, General Motors, Nissan...,

all they are producing tanks, too.)

---

I think that nobody knows how long

oil reserves will last.

But we know as well that all the energy

we are using could be made by renewables, too.

It is only a question of money,

which one is cheaper.

All the electric power could be made

by direct solar power and wind power stations

for example.

I think that the easiest way would be

in the beginning to start consuming less oil.

Drive with smaller cars,

drive less kilometers.

That would be saving two ways.

If we consume less we can invest

more money to build better technologies.

I agree with a big business man with whom

I talked once.

He said that fossil oil is

too good material

to be burned inside engines.

- Hannu

[JW]

BT Humble,

 Excellent link, the one thing I find most interesting about both links, incuding the one you provided.  there is a major emphasis that both renewable and alternative energy should get a development boost. I often wonder why this is not happening, it should be... Also its important to realize hydrogen is just an energy "carrier" not actually a source of alternative energy. Since it costs 3 to 7 times as much as an equivalent amount of gasoline and the price cannot be reduced, because you need energy to produce it in the first place(hydrogen dont make itself). Personally I dont worry to much about global warming and all that. Its the fact were running out of fuel that bothers me. Truely we do have it made when it comes to energy these days. I scoff at those that say it doesnt matter to me, or "not in my lifetime". Its sad to think we wont take AE and RE seriously until there is impending doom, perhaps then in 50 years well take it seriously. I always feel its easier to do something complex, without major pressure. What better time than now to perfect, the alternatives, to fossil fuel. surely the transition would be much easyier for future generations and the whole world, if we developed "on shelf" solutions.

-JW

[TomW]

Hannu;

I must dissagree with you on your "use less" advice.

I say this because until artificially cheap oil runs out we will never endeavor to extract power from renewable sources on the scale necessary to be useful.  

The sad thing is after we use it all up we will discover a way to get exponential energy returns from oil but it will be too rare to really use.

Cheers.

TomW

[JW]

Hannu,

 I have also heard that oil is to valuable to be burned in engines. No matter what happens were going to need lubricating oils and the like. Many if not all plastics are made from oil. But I've heard as well, that anything that can be made from oil can be made from corn, incuding many plastics.

 I often wonder what the so-called engineers were thinking, when they abandoned High power DC motor drives for electric cars. what made them think that the heat produced by such motors could not be recycled and used to run on-board systems for the vehicle. Lets face it AC drive systems for electric cars are a complete waste of time. Its no wonder people have given up on electric cars, considering our failed technical leadership. Clearly we have lost our way.

-JW

[Wolfie1]

Tom, I can agree that nothing of substance will happen until it absolutely must happen but I can't go along with the idea of 'using more' to get us there quicker.

As said elsewhere, oil is too valuable to just be wasted as fuel.

The transition from now to a post-oil society will be a hard one and probably one with much suffering and even war. The more orderly (slower) the change, the better it will collectively be for us.

The new power in the world will be the one that can do more with less. So we better start practicing now.

Martin.

[Gordy]

There's alot of well founded doom and gloom in these posts. What we are doing here may not make a big differance on a national or world wide scale, but it will help lesson the effects on thoughs of us who are building our systems now.

Be kind spread the word and knowledge to freinds and family and anybody else who will listen. If you have, to remind them , That he who buries his head in the sand leaves his butt exposed to being kicked.

Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Gordy

[Seth]

I stand and wonder ... how manny of us that visit here ....

Already knew this ....

I did.

[troy]

We have cut our personal household use of electricity by 60% through the use of conservation and better choice of appliances and lights.  If we all did that, we could shut off 40% of the power plants in the US tomorrow. I published a series of articles in my church newsletter.  Many families have reported making siginificant changes in lifestyle.

I'm shopping for a diesel volkswagon (50% more efficient than similar sized gas burner)and approximately the same mileage as the new hybrids with the expensive new technology.

I'm shopping for a Lister diesel to set up for cogeneration at my house to make use of waste veggie oil.

If we all do our part...

Invigorating discussion by the way.

troy

[troy]

Hi Ed,

A friend of mine spends six months a year in China.  He says that after the SARS scare over there, nobody wants to ride the public transit any more, so car sales are going through the roof.  At the same time, culturally, riding bicycles is now perceived as backwards and is actually discouraged in some cities.

Bad bad bad.

Best regards,

troy

[hvirtane]

Cogeration could be very good.

With a Lister you can use

used veggie oils,

used engine oils

(I know about a guy, who is burning

used engine oils in a diesel, he is filtering

the oil through rolls of toilet paper, he

also is heating the oil before injecting in

the engine)

biogas,

wood-gas

...

You might also use an electric car

for driving, with that cogeneration

unit you could charge the batteries.

- Hannu

[BT Humble]

It seems to be generally accepted that world oil production will peak sometime in the next 10 years or so[1].  Once there's less[2] oil available to the market the price will obviously go up, up and away.  

Now think about food.  Here in Australia diesel fuel is used for pretty much every aspect of food production (tractors) and transportation (trucks, trains).  What do you think will happen to the price of food when diesel suddenly costs $4 per litre instead of $1?

I think the "not in my lifetime" people may have an unpleasant surprise waiting for them in about 20 years.

The science of Economics is based on the idea that resources are infinite.  To me, that makes it about as much of a science as Phrenology.

BTH

[1] The oil companies themselves are moving into other products, BP owns Solarex and Shell now owns Siemens Solar.

[2] I don't mean "none", I mean "a reduced quantity".