China?

[vawtman]

Way back when i first became interested in wind turbines a couple years ago.My need for a motor to convert led me to Jimmy Junk a local guy that takes anything one can throw at him.

 I went to the back part of the yard only to see jimmy throwing motors in a endloader to dump in a semi.His pile was roughly 20ft high x 60ft.Mega Motors.

 I asked if i could buy one,His reply was wish you were here yesterday all these are going to China.

 What would China want with all these motors?

 Cant we do whatever it is here?

 Turbines?

 Magnets ?On and on.

 It seems their sucking anything they can get from us.

 Scarry.Maybe we are just lazy.

 He got enough money out of the deal to build a new house.

[ghurd]

I went with a friend to pick up some UPS from an eBay retailer of used stuff.

China supplied this retailer with a container to fill with anything left over... Paper, plastic, metal, bubble wrap, whatever. They paid him a flat rate and handled all the shipping, etc.

Sort of like buying everything in the dumpster!  Strange.

G-

[windstuffnow]

  China is a vacuum for any materials it can get it's hands on.  Some of it is simply for the  materials, other things become reverse engineered and they reap the benifits of someone elses work.   Their not very creative but they can copy anything!

  Not long after I started looking to manufacture the Lenz turbine guess what... a chineese knock off appeared, a very poor and pitiful copy but a copy none the less.   The guy builds hub motors, no doubt a knock off of another.  

.

[Volvo farmer]

There's over 1.3 Billion Chinese. There's less than 300 million Americans. Funny things happen when you're outnumbered four-to-one, and you're the one driving modern cars, on paved roads, into electrified, sanitized, air conditioned living quarters.  

Personally, I'm glad they're not shooting at me.

Sure they want to copy us. They want our dang standard of living. I tell ya, if I was a guy with an ox and a cart, and I happened to drive my ox and cart past a television shop that showed a guy driving an Escalade with 18" bling wheels, I would probably, deep down in my heart, wish that I has a Cadillac. I might even copy some smart guy's idea to try and bring myself up in the world so that I could get myself an Escalade. Even if I didn't want a Cadillac, maybe I'd figure out a way to earn s profit off the scrap that those rich people throw away so that my kids could have a better life than mine.

[thefinis]

About all the stuff going back to China. It makes good business sense. After unloading a cargo from China they have the empty ships and empty containers and it all needs to go back to China so why not fill it up. Any net profit off the contents helps offset the cost of getting the shipping container back to refill with goods. I had read that even with selling them below the cost of replacements that it was cheaper to sell the old ones and buy new ones than pay the cost of shipping the empties back.

Finis

[finnsawyer]

This is a lot like Japan buying scrap before WWll, and where did that lead?  The fact is that metals can be salvaged from the motors.  I work sometimes for a mining engineer that does just that here in the good old US of A.  He recycles a lot of stuff into metal scrap as part of his operation, but he gets the stuff for essentially nothing.  His cost is in salvaging the copper wire, aluminum, and steel.  But it still pays for him to do it, so far.  Of course, once he sells it, it may go to China.  Have a nice prewar with China day.

[vawtman]

Ya finsawyer they probably wouldnt mind a little war if anything it would help reduce their population.Oh Goodness

[hapuna beach]

My eyes were opened when I travelled there last year. Was picked up at the airport in a Chinese manufactured Buick minivan (the interior looked EXACTLEY like any US made GM, with sinage in English).

If you've purchased a Chevy Equinox or Pontiac Torrent recently (assembled in Canada), it probably came with a Chinese built V-6 engine.

China is growing so rapidly that it needs all the raw materials it can get a hold of, and that includes oil, metal, paper, cement, glass, wood, ect. That's one of the reasons the price of copper and other materials has skyrocketed. While walking the streets, locals couldn't wait for me to finish drinking my bottled water, so they could recycle it for cash.

A local told me they are accomplishing in 10 years what took Japan 30 years. Time will tell!

[Bruce S]

IMHO:

   We will not go to war with China any time soon if ever.

China needs the buying power of American people just support their economy. Plus all of the American styled-after Chinese companies have American, Danish, but mostly Swedish backers. Dig deep into the prospectus of any of those listed companies and you get a different outlook on them.

In many way s they are just like the Japanese were, even back when the lowly transistor radios came out. Not too many NEW Ideas coming out but boy can they "take/copy" an idea and run it in as many different ways as possible.

If the Chinese don't buy the raw materials or recyclables from us they will go elsewhere.

The local recycling centers that I am on first name basis with have told me, they the US places have figured this out and are now having the Chinese "bid" against each other to get these materials. Way to go capitalism:--))!!

They also don't have in place the mandatory work guidelines that the EU and US have nor do they have the pay scales they we enjoy, so they can build these items and do these copying at seemingly lower prices.

While watching a PBS show (Frontline I think) they showed that if they were to take what the lowest paid American would get paid and adjust the cost for the companies in China the items coming from there would only be affordable by the rich$$ .

Very interesting.

I also find it interesting that while countries like that treat their workers so poorly and scream at the wastefulness of the Americans.... they are trying desperatly to be just like us.

BUT this is just my Opinion and views.

As one long time poster here puts it. "Your mileage may vary"

Cheers

Bruce S

[finnsawyer]

"We will not go to war with China any time soon if ever.

China needs the buying power of American people just support their economy."

There is a fallacy here.  The U.S. is running a trade deficit of about $200 billion with China.  In order to finance this the U.S. Government sells the Chinese Government paper debt to the tune of 200 billion dollars on which we have to pay interest.  How long can this go on?  We have created a monster that has to come back to bite us sometime.  Now there is an alternative.  If we require the Chinese to spend that $200 billion here, what happens?  According to Economic theory each dollar spent here results in three dollars of economic activity.  So, that $200 billion becomes $600 billion dollars of economic activity.  The Government's share of that at a 36% percent overall tax rate becomes $216 billion dollars.  The rest goes to the people and corporations.  So, the Government rakes in over $200 billion dollars and doesn't have to pay anybody interest on the money.  It's a win -win situation for everybody.  You don't hear economists talking about this.  Why?  It seems to be a case of selective amnesia.  Just who is the Government working for?

[Bruce S]

Finsawyer

  I fail to see the fallacy. You number seem to justify what I wrote.

What would happen IF we stopped buying from China? that 200B$ income for China would come from where?

Hence the Chinese really won't want to go to war against the USA due to fact that the US would just write that debt off and never get around to paying it or call it cost of war.

Remember back when Nixon warned China that if they didn't come to the bargining table that he would impose tarrifs and trade sanctions?

They started beating their chests like some silver back, and all that , but they did come to the "table".

AND just recently someone with common sense, asked the Chinese government to "talk" to N.Korea. and they did.

The Chinese corporations and government are neither stupid nor dumb and they know when they've got a good thing going.

Bruce S

 

[asheets]

Several things come to mind --

1. they have the raw power (i.e. coal) and manpower to take our junk and recycle it into raw materials (copper, alumunum, etc) that they need.  AND, they get paid for taking it off our hands.
   
2. They have space (and, regretably, the excess population) to take the stuff they can't handle and dump it.
   
3. They've got enough people to backwards engineer anything we have simply from waste products (a skill, btw, they learned from the Soviets).
   
4. We throw away an unbelivable amount of repariable/retaskable stuff.
   

[asheets]

War with China?  That has scared me for 10 years for several reasons:

1. 800 million men, poor, wifeless, no prospects for the future, but incredibly well armed and absolutely nothing to lose?  Good luck with that, anybody that's on the same continent with them.
   
2. They are west of the US, they have nukes, and so do all their neighbors who hate them.  Accidental trans-pacific fallout would suck, bigtime.
   
3. Again, they are west of the US, have nukes, and can cause deliberate trans-pacific fallout with a big bomb 100 meters under the water just north of Midway.
   
4. We take too much of their oil?  Not a problem -- they'll just EMP us with their space program.  Then they'll have plenty of oil...
   
5. They also have a big civillian shipping fleet.  
   

[Countryboy]

Hence the Chinese really won't want to go to war against the USA due to fact that the US would just write that debt off and never get around to paying it or call it cost of war.

One minor problem with that idea Bruce.

Right now, the ONLY thing that gives the US dollar ANY value is the fact that oil is purchased with USD.  Ever hear of the Brenton Woods Agreement?

Any country that wants oil has to buy it with USD.  China can sell their paper debt to a country wanting to buy oil with USD.  The US is forced to accept that, whether they like it or not.

The ONLY way the USA could refuse to pay the paper debt to China is if they refused to accept USD from ANY nation.

Iran is currently working on an Oil Bourse; a stock exchange for trading oil.  It will operate on Euros.  If they drop the price of Euro oil cheaper than USD oil, everyone will be dumping USD to get the Euros to buy the cheaper oil.  USD will quickly become worthless because no one wants them.  (Iran is having some technical difficulties getting the Oil Bourse up and running, but if they ever do - watch out.)

Both China and Iran have enough USD that if either of them dumped their holdings in USD to exchange for a different currency, it would cause MASSIVE inflation of USD.  USD would be near worthless, and America would experience hyperinflation.  It would be an economic catastrophe.

That $200 Billion surplus China has been having is being spent on infrastructure in China.  However, the money is flowing into China faster than they can build.  Their unspent money is being used to purchase USA Treasury Bonds.  China held $100+ Billion in T-Bonds in 2000.  Now, they have roughly $1 Trillion in USA T-Bonds.

Earlier this year, China decided they had enough USA T-Bonds.  They weren't going to buy any more.  America DESPERATELY needs to find someone to buy those T-Bonds that China had been buying.  Selling debt is how America has fueled her economy for years.  If we are unable to sell our debt to get more money, America will experience an economic collapse.

If you go to the US Treasury Department website, you can find a picture of the Yield Curve of the US T-Bonds.  It shows an Inverted Yield Curve - a 3 month T-Bonds has a half point higher interest rate than a 30 year T-Bond.  (America is desperate for cash right NOW, and will promise anything, just to get that cash for a couple months even.)

Right below the graph, the Treasury Department says that an Inverted Yield Curve is a very rare phenomenom, and that an Inverted Yield Curve is ALWAYS followed by a depression.  

[hvirtane]

Both China and Iran have enough USD that if either of them dumped their holdings in USD to exchange for a different currency, it would cause MASSIVE inflation of USD.

This is a very interesting situation. There might be big problems in the near future...

- Hannu

[DANO]

Hey Bruce...Good point on the work guidelines in USA and EU along with the environmental ones too...China is pissing its own bed with polution just like we did in the 1930's through the 1950's +....and we're still cleaning up.  And remember, we're not just exporting our junk/scrap to them, but also our jobs...My German employer just sent my job there in August....and all I got was this lousy t-shirt...

[Bruce S]

Countryboy;

  Good numbers. I can do those too. The one major factor in this scenario is that IF they were to drop the price of Euro-oil then the USA just like everyone else would then purchase using Euro priced oil. Nothing new here.

Why is the oil bought under USD instead of Euros? this is because even in today's unstable world market, the USD is the only one with a long history of being stable, higher than the Euro or lower doesn't matter as of right now.

This is why I stated that the Chinese really doesn't want to go to war any time in my life time as they'll lose the one major monetary income they have. They are a net importer of raw and recycled materials , not just from the US but everywhere.

IF the EU and even the US (if or current slant wasn't so hell bent on making money) where to impose sanctions on China for the exports just until they brought confirmable upgrades to the worker's quality of life, and China would explode.

FOR the record, I am not for closing free-trade, it benifits the enitre world when everyone plays nice nice. I again for the record , it helps get the US off it's duff.

However, since the days we signed the NAFTA and all those other agreements, most of the EU and US have gone to playing nice, but not so from other countries that have signed it as well.

I for one have been lucky that I have working skills that must be learned and cannot easliy be taught, so I have not had the fear of being out-sourced.

Most of these imbalances stem from multi-pronged idealogy, that most everyone wants as much as they can get as cheaply as they can. So we are lead to believe by all the advertisement not just here in the US but everywhere. re-aim that satellite and watch TV in as many different countries as possible, including Saudi-TV and you'll see the same basic slant towards buying more and more for less.

In the EU and US, we generaly strive for quality products, go back when the TV were built in the US and see how long they lasted and compare that to ones coming elsewhere now.

I have had the greatest of fortunes to travel most of Europe and visit countries like Saudi, Pakistan, Japan, S.Korea etc... generally people are the same, we just want a decent life and a better one for our children.

The current standards are different in what some bozo labeled 3rd world countries. They only have different levels of standards as say the French or Holland or even the US. I for one enjoyed my time in Provance' the life style is truly old-world laid back, people live for high standards and quality, not quick and cheap, and it shows.

The companies that are all for doing what they can for nothing more than the bottom line (Walmart, GE,.....) these are the reasons jobs and equipment are out-sourced.

Want it to stop, stop going to Walmart, stop buying stuff made in China. It might take a amount of time BUT they'll take notice. Greed will listen.

For those who don't already know it GE's mandate to all their managers is to increase the bottom line by 20% period, even if it means fireing people. That means ALL of GE not just their frige line or light bulb line , but ALL of GE including the medical line, wind-power line etc....

WAR with China!? Still NO in my book.

NOTE TO ALL:

Even though we may disagree on "stuff" like this I wanted to say that it is indeed nice to see an on-going round table without resorting to name calling.

Cheers to ALL!!

Bruce S

[ghurd]

I read a few years ago that OVER half of everything coming into the US goes straight to Wal-Mart.

G-

[ghurd]

(Make that "coming in from China") G-

[Countryboy]

The one major factor in this scenario is that IF they were to drop the price of Euro-oil then the USA just like everyone else would then purchase using Euro priced oil. Nothing new here.

Very true.  Euros would be the desired currency, and USD would be the undesired currency.  The consequences of this would be that USD would quickly become worthless since no one wanted them.  America doesn't have a Euro money tree to obtain the Euros for purchasing oil for Euros.  They must trade USD to get Euros they can spend.  If no one wants USD, then they will have to offer more and more USD just to get the folks holding the Euros to trade them for USD.  

Why is the oil bought under USD instead of Euros? this is because even in today's unstable world market, the USD is the only one with a long history of being stable, higher than the Euro or lower doesn't matter as of right now.

Try the Brenton Woods Agreement as being the reason oil is bought with USD instead of other currencies.  America saw the writing on the wall, and convinced the oil sellers to agree that they would only sell their oil for USD.  That ensured there would be a demand for USD as long as there was oil to sell.

The USD does not have a long history of being stable.  It has no long history.  Federal Reserve Notes started in 1913.

If oil sellers wanted paid with funds having a long history of stability, they would demand payment in gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, or some other precious rare item.

Why do you think the US is in Iraq?  They want to make sure they can get contracts to buy oil in USD.  The Iraqi folks don't have much choice but to agree to sell the US their oil (and refuse to sell to other countries) when we are holding a gun to their head.

The companies that are all for doing what they can for nothing more than the bottom line (Walmart, GE,.....) these are the reasons jobs and equipment are out-sourced.

Want it to stop, stop going to Walmart, stop buying stuff made in China. It might take a amount of time BUT they'll take notice. Greed will listen.

Capitalism is the reason companies profit maximize.  If you want companies to stop trying to maximize their profits, do away with capitalism and start being a socialist.

If you want to protect yourself, be self sufficient.  Dependance leads to slavery.  A debtor is a slave to the creditor.

I think the most important minimum standard of living folks should aim for is a roof over their head, food in their bellies, and clothes on their back.  That's what is really important.  It's also important that you be able to provide these essentials without being dependant upons others if you want to experience long lasting freedom and prosperity.

I love America and the principles the united states of America was founded upon.  I detest the socialist empire policies of the present US government.  I fear for the future of the debtor slave, dependant American people.

[wooferhound]

So

Our garbage is going to China

They are using it to make new products

and then sending these products to Wal-Mart

[vawtman]

Woof like your thinkin.

 Its weird to me that magnets can be shipped half way around the world much cheaper than we can make them.Cant be good.Turbines can be copied and resold to us cheaper than if we go through the process just to get a patent and build anything.

 Their like little me's in my opinion.

[Colorado]

Which is why wally-mart sells so much garbage.

[Bruce S]

Hey!

 good point!!!

[Bruce S]

Countryboy;

   At your request, I  re-read the BWA several times. Even read the so called experts opinions takes on what this agreement meant to the world, form both sides. Just google the BWA and there's still tons of opinions about it good and bad.

For one, it proves without too much doubt, that the people who drew it up weren't as stupid as some would've made them out to be. Sly maybe, devious? of course, stupid nope.

However long before this agreement was in place most of the world stablized on the USD due to it's ability to weather highs and lows. Only the English pound

Though the USD may not have what could be deemed a long history, I am hard pressed to find one that is better off or more stable. None of the EU monetary countries are stable on their own to step in and the Euro is still too young to be a stand in. Though Iran may want it to be so it could be more of an influence.

Too many countries are now not able to begin demanding payment in any precious metals, even China has out paced their metals reserves to be able to back up requests from others who would then begin to demand payment the same way.

Iran, China, N. Korea, USA, England so on and so forth. They /we've all extended ourselves way beyond the gold & silver reserves we think we might have.

Capitalism has already taken hold enough in China that they're pretty much in the same boat as the US when it comes to printing money.

The US in on the frontline of a lot of stuff going on in Iraq, most of what never makes it to the people merely because it's doesn't seem exciting enough.

I for one, would love to see some of the reports of all the good that's been done wile we've occupied Iraq.

 I know the friends for whom I have attended funerals with, for their sons & daughters, would to would love to see these Good things that have been done, seen on TV just once, not some PBS report or document but prime time TV. Just like when they showed veryone loving us while the toppled the statues.

 I too believe in what America stand for, and people that I speak with in countries who "officially " don't like us at all , just can't understand how individual Americans can be so nice and have the same values as they do, when we're seen as the Overlords.

In 2008, we the American public, once again will be able to make a decision as to who will represent us.  

[bj]

     Vawtman,  thanks for one of the better, thought provoking rants,

I have seen in a while.  If you have read all, and I am sure you have,

there are more diverse opinions here, than in a United Nations debate.

     Good stuff.  All valuable.

     bj

[vawtman]

Thanks bj and thanks to everyone.

 More or less i came to the conclussion that if we didnt buy their junk and send them ours.They would selfdestruct without a war.

 We dont want that to happen to them.Im sure their just has nice has us trying to survive.Even though they have to work many times harder than us for MUCH less.

  Merry Christmas to you.

[finnsawyer]

I heard recently while eating lunch that China lost $300 billion dollars on U.S. notes.  I don't know how true that is, but it would indicate there are fundamental problems.  Well, if the dollar collapses it means we Americans will not be able to buy foreign products.  That wouldn't be the greatest disaster.  We have a large resource base here.  Up here, for instance, people are arguing about a multi-billion dollar nickel sulfide mine going in.  Nothing changes attitudes like supreme need.  I take the view that if that nickel is needed it's going to come out of the ground.  Oil can be a problem, but there are substitutes.  Not necessarily pretty ones, but effective ones, like coal and nuclear energy.  I still think this chronic imbalance of trade can not continue.

As far as the possibility of war with China is concerned, another indicator is their continuing espionage.  I think most people have a pretty good idea what that means.

[domwild]

Hi,

Scrap metal yards I liked to visit no longer sell anything any more as they tell me that everything they have goes to China. This happens in Australia.

Saw a critical film on China: There is China A and China B. China A are the 300 mio. middle- and upper-class urban Chinese. The 700 or more millions are China B, working on building sites for $30 a month but only being paid at the end and then only if the supervisor did not get upset by the worker.

Workers sign contracts to receive 800 yuan but only receive less. Labor organisers get "reeducated". Foreign inspectors are interested in quality of the product and not of the working conditions. Workers are coached before an inspection on what to say.

*

[spinningmagnets]

I've got two good China stories.

McDonnel Douglas cut a deal to have "some" plane parts made in China in order to secure a deal for china buying a lot of planes, and the Union went ballistic, absolutely frothing at the mouth, knee-breaking mad (I was a K3R in bldg 15). The deal went through on the proviso that the Chinese parts would only be used on American made planes, that were only flown inside China. Beijing was in negotiations with the only 3 jumbo plane makers, and MD blinked first. A few years later, I found out they reverse engineered the MD-80 and began making the whole plane, instead of buying more of the completed units from US workers, after the initial contract expired.

An obsolete steel plant in California was closed and going to be scrapped. China bought it, and the union insisted that the US union be allowed to do the "cut and pack" for shipping. In a rare case, the California judge ruled that the people who have to put it back together should be allowed to cut it in pieces, and there were also concerns voiced about sabotage. Rather than pay for a hotel for the workers, the Chinese bought a couple of motels. At the end of the job, they fixed up the motels and sold them for a profit.

"He who hesitates is lost" -Oliver Wendell Holmes

"He who hesitates is last" -Mae West