Do you believe the hype!

[omegaman66]

Hello, I have only recently got interested in solar power.  Saw an article on nanotechnology promising to bring down the cost.  Started doing a bunch of internet surfing on the subject and there are a number of technologies that the proponents say will be able to cut the cost of a solar panel by as much as a factor of 100!  And these panels are said to be in some cases depending on which technology we are talking about will be able to generate electricity from lights in your house as well as direct sunlight.

Do you believe this hype.  Is this pie in the sky?  Or do you believe that solar is about to get competitive or surpass grid priced electricity?

[LIPOVITAN D]

"...will be able to cut the cost of a solar panel by as much as a factor of 100!"

I think that is a pretty extreme, but it depends on the time frame, that would be unlikely in the next 10 years or so but solar technologys are looking very attractive these days with oil prices increasing and power (my power bill has gone up by 20% and I havn't started using significantly more power!) all renewable energy sources are looking good, and it really is satifying to leave those damn power companies behind. I think the most likely short term result is that more people will start usning solar and wind generators in comjunction with their grid supply. In the long terrm I would like to think the power companies would start using more renewable power sources (that said I know it isn't as easy as going and building new power stations). One way I think the government could help is by building huge artificial hydro-lakes like in New Zealand which runs almost completely on hydro-power and still has enough excess to use on a 500MW aluminium smeltor, NZ is also completely nuclear free (not that nuclear power is any worse than coal in my opinion)

[Roamer195]

One of the easiest ways to immediately see a benefit from solar is to build a solar heat pump system. Here's a commercial setup....

http://www.quantum-energy.com.au/heat%20pump%20explained.htm

The collectors for this system can be open-air flat plate type. You can collect nearly 10kw of solar heat per square yard during the daylight hours for about 1kw to drive the compressor.

So, invest in enough PV panels and batteries to drive the compressor as needed and make some high-temp phase-change heat storage barrels to hold as much as you can collect.

[Roamer195]

Some more links:

http://www.polarpowerinc.com/project-exp/nasa_comtract2.htm

http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumerinfo/reading_resources/va4.html

http://www.tpub.com/content/construction/14259/css/14259_328.htm

http://solar1.mech.unsw.edu.au/glm/papers/Heat_pump_water_heaters.pdf

[Wolfie1]

One thing I don't like about the site is that it doesn't show simple numbers of such as,

 "If the ambient temperature is X degrees, the heater will use Y KWh of electricity to raise Z litres the water temperature from A to B degrees". (Fill in your values A,B,X,Y&Z).

Then compare that to the amount of electricity of a regular heater. Are we saving a bit or are we saving a bucket load?

One other thing, has no one thought to combine a fridge/freezer with a water heater?

Martin.

[John II]

At $3.50 per watt, photovoltaic is already almost equal in cost to build as conventional fossil and nuclear power when you factor in the long term environmental impact expenditures and the huge subsidies with zero interest that corporative commercial power plants and strip mines receive. If photovoltaic were on a level playing field, it could hold it's own right now when used with high efficiency appliances in particular. Same with wind power.

There's also another factor I find amusing. I can't count the number of times, I have had someone drive their $40K plus sports utility vehicle in our yard and take a look at $20K worth of P.V's and ask me "are they economially viable ?" " How quick will they pay for themselves ?". My answer is usually, They'll pay for themselves fast if they receive the same subsidies commercial power generators receive, and by the way, is your brand new S.U.V. economially viable ?

John II

[omegaman66]

But back to the original question.  With multiple companies saying new materials will bring down the cost by a factor of 20 do believe that this will happen?  Are do you believe that these new materials will fail in some way and we not see what they are promising.

[Ungrounded Lightning Rod]

I've been hearing about new high-efficiency photovoltaics for a decade or more.

And I've been waiting for a decently-priced flat TV screen since I saw my first one back about 1955 or so.

Not holding my breath.

Maybe they'll happen in a couple years.  Maybe they'll happen in another decade.  Maybe they'll happen next week (but I'm not betting on it).  Maybe they won't happen in my lifetime.

[TomW]

omegaman66;

Did you perhaps consider that a link to some of this "hype" would actually make it possible for us to interpret the same data you have paraphrased?

Anyone hyping a product for sale automatically raises suspicions in my mind of the accuracy and validity of the claims. Without seeing the same "hype" you refer to nobody can render an accurate opinion.

Just a thought.

T

[Roamer195]

Heat pumps vary in their C.O.P. ratings.

The simple answer is, Yes. With a standard system you get 3-4 units of heat delivered for every unit of electrical energy used to drive the compressor. With a solar collector on the front end, the C.O.P. can exceed 10.

C.O.P. ratings for different refrigerants vary depending on the characteristics of the individual substance used.

134a has lousy compression characteristics and it's also toxic.

R12 was great, but "the man" decided to ban it from everyday use.

The newly approved organic refrigerants are my pick, since they are extremely efficient (better than R12) and non-damaging to the environment.

[omegaman66]

Ok here are some links:

I can't find any of the original news stories where I read this stuff but here are a couple that deal with the some of the same info.

I might have them bookmarked I will check again on another computer tonight.

http://www.nanosolar.com/misc/10ET.htm

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/biztech/10/02/solar.cells.reut/

http://www.sciencentral.com/articles/view.php3?article_id=218391978&language=english

[omegaman66]

Here is one I was looking for but couldn't find.  Read the entire thing!

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002230.html

[ghurd]

If they come down in price by a factor of 100, I could buy them, take the aluminum frame to the scrap yard and make a profit!

But really, even if the cells come down to 10% price, the other things like front glass, rear material, frame, wire, plastic, boxes and packaging, warrantee issues, labor, shipping, and profits will still be there. Even if the cells were free, I can't see the price ever going down more than 1/2.

I make a poor living doing these wierd solar things, for a niche market. Pay back time for most of my customers is 3 to 5 years. That doesn't even include avoided repairs to the troublesome systems I'm replacing. It also is eaisier then the replaced systems. I'm only taking money, let alone all the enviromental issues.

And my state has no credits to make it cheaper.

My typicial installation costs the same, +/-10% as the same gas powered system. But there is no gas or repair costs, no baby sitting the gas system, no break downs, and no noise. Which would you want?

I have a 15 year old solar and battery powered calculator. The batteries have been dead for years. I use it every day. If it's light enough to see, it's bright enough for the calculator to work. It takes 2, $3.50 batteries. I never replaced the batteries. How much money have I saved? I have no idea, but a lot.

Solar is not a pipe dream. Even now, for some applications, it the cheapest way to go. Cheapest means people will use it, and they are using it, more and more.