A couple of things...
the lighter weight it is, the earlier it will furl. I don't usually mind if it furls early - its safer to start out in that direction than furling too late!
But - if its simply too small, the machine probably won't run square with the wind which will cost you power. I also notice when the tail is too small (or not far enough back which is about the same affect) - you may notice it's not stable - it will constantly be yawing away from, and then back into the wind. You might notice that in stronger winds the machine turns away before it actually starts furling (raising the tail).
for a machine this size, I would make the tail at least 5 square feet.. probably more like 7 square feet, assuming the tail boom is about 5' long. I could be wrong.. but that's my current thought on the matter.