I think belt driven is the way to go. Yes they do wear out, but you should be able to get a good year of more out of the belt. Belts tend to be much quieter and will cause lets drage on the system then gears.
The main purpose for gearing is if you have a generator that needs say 1000RPM to start really making power, but even without a load you TSR is keeping the RPMs of the wind turbine down at say 200RPM. Well you would need a 5:1 ratio. Now you need a turbine with a lot of torque to handle a 5:1 ratio. Thins like a push based VAWT, which have a TSR of 1 or less typically have a lot of torque (do to larger serface areas) really handle the gears better.
This is generally a must if you are using a DC motor as a generator as the require 1-2,000 RPM typically... and realistically a HAWT with this type of RPM would be VERY scary and noisy.
I am planning a VAWT that is a combination of drag and lift, so I am hoping on a low wind start-up and a moderate RPM (for a VAWY at least). I have a DIY home generator that can hopefully work at the lower RPMs, but I likely will need a pulley system more like 2:1 to 3:1.