Trouble ahead?

[fabricator]

China says it will quit exporting strategic elements in 2014, this includes all the rare earths, they are also hugely ramping up huge wind turbine production for domestic use, the commodities types are already predicting a large and growing shortage of the rare earths which will inevitably lead to much higher costs for magnets. It might be a good time to start stocking up on magnets.

[Beaufort]

Do you happen to have a link to the news article about this decision by China?  We all know about the price increases over the past 5 years, and the magnet companies in China say it will only continue.  Hopefully this will encourage the US-based mines to open again, but I would contend that the government needs to get involved to preserve a domestic supply line.  I've had comments from some who say that there are alternative materials that are being developed that will enable non-Chinese sources for Neo-strength magnets, but I'm not privy to the timing and details.

So should we start learning how to build induction machines?  I hate winding coils...not for me.

[fabricator]

I don't have a link, it was on the Jim Leherer News Hour tonight, there was a guy in the segment who say we are just our dependence from oil to these elements.

[terry5732]

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/july-dec09/china_12-14.html

[boB]

Well, it this turns out to be true, then you may either have to pay more for the stuff, or maybe we'll have to go back to field windings ?

boB

[Beaufort]

Yeah, all this just when some of the big utility-scale companies are looking to develop PM-direct drive turbines.  There is a big weight benefit and of course the gear train in a huge wind turbine has always been a source of problems (and nearly impossible to test).  So if China has the lock on rare earth, they can make the best direct-drive utility-scale turbines.  And there is a substantial amount of rare earth in the Prius drive motor, and other hybird/electric cars will likely have PM motors as well.

We tend to only think about oil as a strategic national interest but other things like clean water and fertile farmland should also be thought of as vital.  

[dsmith1427]

If you believe in free markets, and I do, other companies in other parts of the world will see the ability to make a profit from the demand and enter the rare earth market.  The following article supports this idea.  

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/a-rare-opportunity-in-mining-stocks.asp
x?page=1

[ghurd]

"comments from some who say that there are alternative materials that are being developed"

Always!  And the development will go a lot faster if the cost of neos substantially increases.

The guys who developed alnico maybe thought there would never be anything better.

Wiki- "The term "rare earth" is often misunderstood by the chemical layman; these metals are not particularly rare or precious, and as of 2007 rare earth magnets give the best cost/field ratios of any permanent magnet"

COST being the key word as I see it.

China has half the neo deposits.  Not all.

It will be more expensive to get neo because other places have rules about safety, the environment, and higher labor cost.

"it will quit exporting strategic elements".  I expect they mean in a raw form?

So what.  We pay more for our neos in a windmills and Prius?

The ipod ear buds get a bit larger.  The kids with 10,000W neo speakers have to use ceramic.

If they stop exporting neo all together, that means no more computer hard drives.

That would be a serious issue!

Not to mention who will make the HDs if China stops exporting products containing neo?

Some neo uses will decline rapidly anyway.  

The new terabyte HDs have a tiny amount of neo compared to the old 50 meg HDs.

Solid state HDs are here now.  The days of spinning plattens are numbered, much like IBM punch cards.

G-

[wooferhound]

I used Samarium Cobalt magnets in my Genny. I thought these magnets were Very Strong.

http://www.fieldlines.com/images/scimages/231/genny_04.jpg

[dnix71]

It's not just magnets. The new thin film cadmium-telluride solar panels may make NiCad batteries a thing of the past. Cadmium and tellurium are leftovers from copper and zinc mining/refining, so new sources are limited. A panel is worth a lot more money than a AA rechargeable.

Aluminum could go up in price if recycle streams can't supply the material for solar panel frames. Virgin aluminum takes 20 times the energy to make as recycle.

Then there is Intel and Apple working together to make a universal optical port for computer peripherals that would replace serial, parallel, ethernet, USB, video, audio and firewire. The only wire would be for power, all data transfers would be across fibre. That would mean less copper and gold used in computers. The latest supercomputers already use fibre for cpu linking.

We may have to mine our own garbage dumps for raw materials in the near future.

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/107/landfill.html

[Bruce S]

I like that idea

Just think how much smaller the mounds of so-called rubish would be if we went looking for all the scrap they shovelled in.

Now not only am I going to hold on to my HD mags, but all those NiCds are going into my safe...>only kidding<.

BUT! just think of how much of this stuff Floated down the rivers killing all sorts of wildlife.

Fibre inter-links are coming down in price too. Tera & Penta bytes SANS are already using Fibre inter-links. heat out put less than a 1gig processor less than 2 years old.

Heating from server farms well put less strain on systems too.

I'm all for cleaning them up, even if I have to pay a little more.

Cheers

Bruce S

[ghurd]

I am all for mining the landfills.

It would be labor intensive, but around here every landfill has a prison near by.  Or vice versa.  And I hear the inmates will do about anything to get outside and make 15 cents an hour.  Win:Win.

Gosh.  It would break my heart (NOT!) if some of these millionaire stock scam artists sitting in the pokey had to work digging cans and HDPE out of a landfill to buy their own soap and tooth paste.

Not sure a short supply of AL would effect PV production.

Takes a lot of PV frames to equal 1 wheel on a Caddy or SUV.

If AL goes real high, soda and beer cans would go back to steel?

Alternatives, such as maybe iron encased in that 'recycled plastic decking board' material, would certainly appear when it becomes profitable.

G-

[gizmo]

I wouldn't worry too much about China limiting its exports of the rare earth metals. Australia has massive reserves of the rare earth minerals, a future supply if the Chinese product gets too expensive and demand remains high.

Ceramic magnets are not that bad, the axial flux alternator could be modified to use ceramics instead of rare earth magnets. Just means more coils and a bigger design to get the same power.

Glenn

[fabricator]

The article Dsmith1427 linked to says China is trying to buy controlling interest in the two big rare earth mines in Oz.

[175lt2]

I wouldn't worry much about the price of the magnets going up but rather the price of copper! We already had a taste of this over the last few years when the Chinese started buying up all our copper scrap and the price of wire and pipe tripled in a short time.

[SparWeb]

Yeah, Canada too has plenty of rare earths...  and lots of annoying labour laws and health standards that get in the way of making an honest profit!

[JoeWXYZ]

I wouldn't worry either, I have found that my green stuff has a high magnetic quality. Joseph.

[ruddycrazy]

Just look out for a politician telling the truth then dig the ground beneath him/her that would have to be the rarest earth around.......

[bracken]

This is true and will have huge impact on multiple industries, including the motor and generator industries. Neodymium will actually drop by about 75% of their current export.