Have we crossed a historically significant event in PV and not noticed?

[troy]

For years, decades really, the pv industry has always been 2-4 years away from the next big "breakthrough" that would drop panel cost to "a dollar a watt".  For a long time, actual street price was around four dollars a watt.  The magic "dollar a watt" level was often touted as making PV competitive with grid electrons if coal or nuclear was the prime mover, taking into account life cycle costs and so on.

Well hey, we're there.  Aren't we?  NanoSolar and a few others claim to be able to make kilowatts with their panels and compete with the big status quo industries, no subsidies, etc.  One hears figures of 5 or 6 cents per kwh.  I presume that is over the life cycle, and probably panel cost only, not balance of system cost. 

And, there have been a few folks here who have purchased these very inexpensive panels.

So...

1.  Do we have any short term reports of how they work?

2.  Do we have any reputable reports of how long we may expect these panels to last, other than, "We say they will."

3.  If this is all true, this may significantly reduce the world's dependence on fossil fuels and we might actually squeak by the whole peak oil problem.  Should there be jumping up and down in the streets by the populace because we are saved?

4.  Note that, if we correct for inflation, panels that currently sell for a dollar a watt are actually much cheaper  than a "dollar a watt" as mentioned by the industry people ten or twenty years ago.


Thank you in advance for your various opinions.  I have no relation to any of those companies, blah blah blah.

troy

[Tritium]

NanoSolar will sell to the public now? That is news to me. Sunelec.com frequently has $1 per watt to $1.50/watt.

Thurmond

[SparWeb]

Though I don't know anything about the panels, I would start by looking at Sandia Labs, especially John Wiles' projects.  They keep a database of solar panels on the market in the USA.
Spending a minute looking - darn can't find the link for you.  Strange I didn't bookmark it because I went to that site regularly for a while doing my own research not long ago.  I'll try again later.
If you're good with Google you may be able to track it down, starting at Home Power magazine, then finding John Wiles' articles, and maybe there's a link in the author info.

[Seth7]

You seem to need a subscription to search .....

[SparWeb]

See if this helps:

http://homepower.com/files/webextras/HomePower_PV_GUIDE_2010.xls

Sorry it's probably not JohnWiles' work, but it's from Homepower mag.
No prices directly in the spreadsheet, but you can get prices from all the ads in the magazine itself so it's not really that hard...
NanoSolar isn't in the list, but it's a much longer list than it was when I last saw it!  Must be more companies entering the market now.

[troy]

I didn't mean to suggest that Nanosolar sells to the public.  I think they don't, yet.  But, I think there are others who do sell to the public at that price level. And the NanoSolar panels are being sold to somebody out there, driving the supply/demand curve down towards a buck a watt.

So, if it's all true, or really, WHEN it's all true, that should have some pretty earthshaking consequences over the next decade or two and demand explodes.

Think about where you're going to mount all those great/cheap panels.

Finest regards,

troy

[Seth7]

Out in front of my neighbors big bay window!!!!!

[Volvo farmer]

Here's where I like to check to see solar panel price trends
http://www.solarbuzz.com/facts-and-figures/retail-price-environment/module-prices

Personally, I think the jury is still out on the longevity of the new thin film technologies. Maybe a buck a watt is a good bargain, maybe you get what you pay for.

[Seth7]

So you think these thin solar panel manufacturers will do things that shawty house manufacturers did .... disappear when warranty claims start coming in? Is 20 years a good coverage?

 Sent with my droid x

[dnix71]

I paid $2.50 watt delivered for mono crystalline pv with all the certs recently. You can get $1/watt now if you buy pallets at a time. Shipping costs can easily be higher than panel price for small panels and quantities. Glass panels are fragile. That won't change. I'm also not sure about how long thin film will last.

Sun advertises $1/watt sometimes, but try to actually buy 2 panels including shipping for that price and tell me if it works.

$1 used to buy a gallon of gas in the US. Now it's more than 3 times that. If you can go off grid with panels you should be free of risk for 20 years or more on electric prices. I doubt the cost of electricity is going to remain stable or fall over the next 20 years. $1/watt or $3/watt you still win if you can afford solar pv now.

[joestue]

If you can get a 20 year warranty on 1 to 1.5$/W panels go for it, not for the warranty, but the manufactures confidence at this time that they will last that long.
of course, there is the possibility they plan on going broke and defaulting... conspiracy theories imo.

will some go broke? sure.
but at 1$/ watt you can mix and match manufactures, and three for the price of one is a good deal to me.
Personally i'm going with 40 cents per watt shipped, poly crystalline cells and will be building my own in the near future, based on how long i think they will last, surplus materials available now, and my expectation that prices will continue to drop in the future.

Personally i feel the milestone for affordable solar has been crossed for much of the USA, especially areas where the actual rate you pay for electricity is over 15 cents/kwh

[howlet]

 European and Asian PV demand left a severe shortage of silicon and other raw materials in the USA.
 Now that foriegn demand has been satisfied almost to the point of saturation, the US can start to ponder the buck a watt dream once again.
 That day has come for the DIY enthusiast already.