Remote Living > Transportation
EV Market, 20-Year Bet
SparWeb:
So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future? Who thinks they're a fad?
Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years
I am willing to take up George on his bet, if we can agree on the winning criteria. 20 years is a pretty safe time frame - enough time for several car model generations to come and go, perhaps a few manufacturer names to come and go too... If a market for EV's is going to establish itself, then in 20 years it should be reaching maturity. If it's a flop, then in 20 years it will still just be nibbling at the margins. So I agree that's a good time frame to judge success/failure.
Next question: What share of the market is "major". And which market do we mean; world, USA, Europe? I want to bet on the world market, here.
To me, 20% of the world market in 20 years sound like success. IMHO: A world economy that can spit out 100 million cars a year and fuel their travel all around, surely can make 20 million EV's and power them as they bumble back and forth.
Who's in for this bet?
Some long-time Fieldlines members may remember the "20/20/20" bet by VolvoFarmer, so for my wager, "20x20=400".
The winner has to be a Fieldlines member 20 years from now, or available to be contacted in 2037 to claim their winnings.
The currency of the winnings should probably be normalized to 400 USD, however, 20 years is a long time to be assuming the US dollar will be a standard currency.
Today, 400 USD has about the same value as 10 grams of gold, so whichever one maintains its value will be the winnings.
TLDR:
Electric Vehicles are currently experiencing exponential growth in most markets that I have read about. This growth comes from many things:
* pent-up demand (consumers waiting for the product and will not purchase anything else)
* incentives (all those tax rebates)
* basic cost (the typical EV is getting cheaper)
* scaled cost (mass production makes EV's cheaper still)
The EV sales growth rate at 50% per year we hear about is unsustainable; that's just what the cherry-pickers use for news headlines. In some places it happens, other places it isn't. But a world-wide growth of 5% is not enough for EV's to fulfill anybody's promises. For EV's to play a big role in road transportation worldwide, then they have to actually reach a major portion of vehicle sales annually. Currently they are a small fraction of it; only about 1% of all auto sales in North America. I couldn't give you numbers for the rest of the world, but somebody can.
If EV sales were to grow to 20% of US/Canada sales, then we would need 19% exponential growth rate in both countries. That's pretty fast. For comparison, Ford underwent a 50% growth rate (replacing the horse-drawn carriage with Model T's) but only sustained that growth for 15 years. Then it crashed - everything else crashed - and then there were 2 world wars and a depression... When the 20th century settled down, the US auto industry was already "mature" and growth was linear after that.
Growth rates are funny mathematical problems. Linear rates of growth add up every year and can be sustained for a very long time, but an underdog that chooses this strategy will be an underdog forever. Exponential growth is much faster and is able to change a market in just a few years - but it cannot last long before it crashes. Usually the forces that make a growth rate exponential don't allow it to switch over to linear, making the crash inevitable. This shows up everywhere in economics and ecology.
There's no reason to believe the exponential growth of EV sales should end soon, but by definition it will end. Where will it level off? Good question!
If it levels off in 20 years, then the only way for EV's to accomplish a major portion of the market is if they sustain a 20% growth in sales for the ENTIRE 20-year period without hitting the growth wall.
Again, gotta ground this in reality: world auto production is about 100 million per year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production
So 20% of that is 20 million EV's per year. BUT - world auto production is growing at 3% per year. That means in 20 years the world could be producing 180 million cars, so a 20% EV market becomes 36 million EV's per year.
Are there enough resources in the world to sustain this amount of production? I believe so. There's been a lot of talk of "peak material X" like "peak oil" but I don't actually believe it. You don't have to worship capitalism to see that when one resource becomes scarce, inventiveness finds a way to do the job with another. There is so much diversity in EV's now that the fundamental resources needed to make millions of EV's will be a buffet table of choices. So I don't believe there will be a "crash" in EV sales driven by materials availability.
The power to drive all these EV's around sounds like an obstacle, but it isn't. The world already generates enormous amounts of energy. The charging of EV's if they grow to 20% of the autos in the world will remain a fragment. Electricity is the most efficient means of transferring energy from source to use ever invented by mankind, and the more we invest in electric technology the higher our standard of living will be overall. More EV's implies that less fossil fuel will be burned, hence less fossil fuel mined and transported, which frees up human labour and equipment for other pursuits, such as the generation of electricity.
I have already expressed my personal opinions about the ideal source of electricity. Carefully setting aside ALL emotional responses I will simply state that the world has enough resources to power all of human civilization with certain types of energy technology that are available now, for a thousand years. The volume and volatility of the waste is also a matter that current technology can handle.
Coming back to the EV's, then, the power to charge them all is an incremental change to an existing grid that we already have. So here, I also feel that the ability to power them will not be the cause of a sales crash either.
Having eliminated the two main obstacles to widespread EV sales, in my mind, then I can only grasp here and there to find other reasons why somehow they cannot sustain a growth rate or cannot allow the sales to level off gradually rather than crash.
A few remote possibilities that could affect EV popularity, plus or minus:
* urbanization - most people live in cities, and the world is concentrating more and more in cities
* urban/rural divide - city dwellers will not see limited range as an obstacle, but rural people who have long distances to drive do
* commercial use - businesses already are seeing reduced costs using EV's as delivery vehicles, taxis, municipal services, etc.
* automation - The EV is, in principle, slightly easier to automate than fuelled vehicles
* size - to make a heavy-hauler run on electricity is much harder than family vehicles
* freight carriage by road - this industry is growing rapidly, but trucking is not friendly to electric traction
* freight carriage by rail - also growing rapidly; many trains in North America are already "hybrids" (diesel-electric) or some sort of tram
* aviation - few believe that a practical electric aircraft can be made, even with advancement of current technology
Not much left to say. Despite all the effort I've put into explaining my position, I feel like I'm stating the obvious, here.
paara:
In Norway, where I live, electric veicles make up over 20% of new car sales already (pure electric cars). In september -17 it was 29%. If you include hybrid/chargable or not. It is over 50%. So I hope it wont take 20years.
george65:
What I said was :
--- Quote ---Anyone want to make some bets that EV's in 20 years will still be a minor player in the personal and business transport market?
--- End quote ---
The bet proposed here is that 80% of Vehicles in 20 Years will still be IC.
I'll take that bet but I WILL NOT turn that into a load of BS that Ev's are a Major amount of vehicles at 20% because clearly, they will not be in that scenario.
20% to me, especially in 20 years time with all the hype and hysteria we are being subjected to now from those always looking to champion a miracle, IS still A MINOR amount.
It's a 2 Horse race, EV or IC. There is nothing else atm . Anyone can see that major has to be 50%+
In any case, the 20% EV in 20 years would translate to 80% STILL being IC.
I don't have a problem with that bet and will definitely take it.
A rule of the game will have to be though that the "major" classification will have to be OVER 50%, 20% is NOT major in anyone's maths unless you want to kid yourself and try and insult everyone elses intelligence.
As I'm sure a realistic and obvious standard will not be suitable for the Green/ Ev washed, The way I see it, there are 2 bets here:
What percentage of the car market ( production/ sales) will EV's be in 20 years?
OR
How long before Ev's ARE a major ( 50%+) influence in the market?.
Pretty sure with the 2nd one I won't live to 100 which is what one would have to be reasonably confident of to see this one out.
Even in that time frame, I'm pretty confident in another 50 years the dominant technology will be nothing even discussed right now.
Anyway, 80% of vehicles still being IC in 20 years, I'll put $4k on that.
Calling 20% of the fleet being Ev's a major or not minor, yeah right!
::)
SparWeb:
Hi George,
Agreed, it's hard to pick a target, not two, three, or more which just confuses the matter. So I picked one.
And I figured this was at least 1 thing we could agree on.
Hello Paara,
Sounds great in Norway, and the other news coming from Europe is pretty positive, too.
Which vehicles have been the most popular?
Bruce S:
So,,
When you say EV's , how many Wheels? 2,34, or more? Land only?
If there's gonna be a bet that needs to last 20 years, then all the bases need to be covered.
There maybe some who think I'm being sarcastic with these questions.
I am not.
Bruce S
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