Remote Living > Transportation
EV Market, 20-Year Bet
SparWeb:
George, in a way you have put your finger on what I can accept and not accept in an EV for myself. I can't afford a new one, and a pure EV just won't go the distance, so it's a used hybrid for my garage, when the time comes.
I'm still not sure why you are really concerned about "extra load" on the grid from EV's. Think of the time-scale. To have enough EV's plugged into the grid to even matter would take many years, maybe more than a decade before anyone will notice the "EV Bump" in consumption overnight. Compare that the the political time scale for you guys to have an election, vote out the fools letting the South Territory's electricity grid run out of supply, and get a new plant or two built to stop the blackouts. I'm well aware of the boondoggle going on in south Australia, though I don't know many of the details. You may have fun reading this guy's rant: http://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=418158
jlsoaz:
--- Quote from: george65 on December 30, 2017, 08:27:45 PM ---
--- Quote from: jlsoaz on December 30, 2017, 10:45:04 AM ---I am getting confused by the naming. It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV],
--- End quote ---
Probably getting confused by all the needless acronyms.
They are either hybrids or EV's.
All the other add ons is just useless, annoying BS.
--- End quote ---
BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle
PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid
HEV = Hybrid (non-pluggable)
FCEV= Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
EV = generally used to refer either to BEV or PHEV, though some (such as manufacturers that focus on HEVs) like to try to sneak in that it includes HEVS or sometimes FCEVs. Sometimes then it is useful to talk about
PEV = Plug-in Electric Vehicle which, is more clearly BEV or PHEV.
There are some acronym differences here and there, but the above are more or less widely used/understood/vernacular amongst EV industry participants.
george65:
--- Quote from: jlsoaz on December 30, 2017, 11:10:28 PM ---the above are more or less widely used/understood/vernacular amongst EV industry participants.
--- End quote ---
I'm not in the EV industry.
I don't think anyone else here is either. Are you in the EV industry?
Far as I'm aware this is not an EV industry forum either.
That really brings it back to Hybrids or Electric for the sake of discussion and all anyone here really needs to specify.
All the rest is just confusing and needless complication.
Simen:
--- Quote from: jlsoaz on December 30, 2017, 10:45:04 AM ---Do you know if there is a good website where I can see Norwegian BEV and PHEV sales? I'll take a look around.
--- End quote ---
The EAFO site has a good overview. I guess the statistics would be refreshed as we get a bit into the new year... :)
george65:
--- Quote from: SparWeb on December 30, 2017, 09:53:15 PM ---George, in a way you have put your finger on what I can accept and not accept in an EV for myself. I can't afford a new one, and a pure EV just won't go the distance, so it's a used hybrid for my garage, when the time comes.
--- End quote ---
Why?
Do you want one because you think it's better for the environment or do you think it will save you money?
Are you looking for one you can charge or will it be self charging only like a priarse?
For the hybrids you are looking at, how old would they likley be and what is the battery life of the things? Would you be likley to be up for a replacement battery pack in the future or would you sell it and update before that was needed?
I have heard that those battery packs are a rather substantial investment.
--- Quote ---I'm still not sure why you are really concerned about "extra load" on the grid from EV's. Think of the time-scale. To have enough EV's plugged into the grid to even matter would take many years, maybe more than a decade before anyone will notice the "EV Bump" in consumption overnight.
--- End quote ---
Concerned is probably the wrong word.
I put is forward as a point of what I think is considerable consideration in the whole Ra Ra Ra of the Ev/ greenwashed crowd who like to make out we will all be driving EV's in no time at all and the IC fossil fueled vehicle is already dead.
What I like about these arguments and discussions is they make me think and during the course of the various threads here I have seen a whole Bunch of factors that add up to a lot more obstacles for EVs to overcome than I first considered.
The grid load is one of them and I think it's far from the simple thing of generation growing to meet the demand that many Ev proponents make out. I also think it's a lot more than a localised consideration. as pointed out several times already, there are few countries with abundant power supply and fewer still that have or will go near being renewable. Your own links to arizona pointed out it will be 7 years before they even hope to hit 15% renewable. That I think is a concern.
The demand on the grid worldwide is growing all the time. The green washed thing of coal is evil and must be stopped now reduces capacity and stability. On one hand you have the green washed trying to reduce generation at the same time promoting the increase of consumption.
It takes a LOT of renewable power to equal one fossil fired station and the renewable is far from stable and dependable.
In a decade, the demand on grids around the world will have grown through all the things that are reliant on it now. Population, business, industry, quality of life improvements Like AC, large TV's and so it goes.
I don't know where to find the info of demand Vs generation relationships but it sure would be interesting to see the projections.
I don't know about other parts of the world but from what I'm reading, The take up of PV is no where near like it is here but our gubbermint is undermining that. I think rather than have the big blattery, the money should have been spent on putting more localised power where it is needed in the form of solar. Unfortunately the green obsessed and Crazy SA gubbermint is so hell bent on being able to make stupid claims, they do it at the cost of sound practices and stability of power for the state.
SA is going to hell in a hand basket.
The cost of power is going through the roof and people are screaming about it. It's costing jobs and industry IS pulling out fast as it can find somewhere else to go where they can be reasonably gauranteed a constant supply of the power they need at a price that is reasonable rather than is SA they are being told they have to limit their use and the supply cannot be guaranteed and there could be blackouts at any time. We aren't talking storms and freaks of nature here, we are talking normal first world expectations of supply.
I really don't think most of the greenwashed / EV proponents have any idea of the amount of energy contained in liquid fuels, the size of any type of battery to store the same amount of energy as in an average fuel tank and I don't think they understand what that energy equates to in electrical generation terms. Multiply that out be every car however many there are in your street let alone suburb and city, and the numbers become overwhealming.
Compare that to the amount of power a city generates now and one will get some perspective how mammoth a task this switch to electric really is.
Here's a real quick one....
My 4WD has a 100L tank. Yes, large by sedan standards but around here, a significant part of the local transport.
Diesel is about 10.7Kw of energy per litre. Let's call it 10 for ease of my poor mathematics.
100L in my tank x10 Kwh = 1000 KWh.
My 6.5 Kw solar system is averaging with weather about 25KwH a day atm being summer here. 5kwh is the standard for new systems being installed now but a lot larger than most older ones being 1.5-2 Kw.
If I put my 25kwh a day JUST into my vehicle, Thats going to take 40 days on average to give me ONE tankfull of Diesel.
Lets halve that as a closer to average sort of tank capacity. 500KWH, 20 days at 25KWH per day.
Look at it another way. Average home here for a family of 4 my power bill says is about 30 KWH a day. 50L of fuel in the average family car, and few families have one here, 500Kwh / 30 Kwh = 16 days average power use in that vehicle.
Most people I know fill up at least once a week. 2000Kwh month for the car, 30Kwh x 30 days = 900 KWH for the home.
Anyone getting the picture of the energy load we are talking about here?
That average family car is worth more than 2 average home electric consumption per month. If they have ONE car. Round here, I'd reckon the average number would be 3. In some places it will be one but I bet 2 cars per home on average would be conservative now in most western countries averaged out, citys, suburbs, country. Looked up the numbers, spot on, 2.28 for Oz with 35% owning 3 or more.
US, looks exactly the same, canada a bit less, 1,8 cars per family.
So in reality, the average home in these countries would have 4-5 times the demand on the grid for power for their ev's than they are using in their homes now.
At best, the number of houses in your street as far as power consumption goes just tripled. More likely, it just multiplied by a factor of at least 5.
In every street in every suburb in every city and town right across the country......
How many homes do you think will be able to have enough panels to charge their vehicles up in even a week even if they covered the whole block and used the panels as a roof?
Maybe you were right, Concern is probably the right word when I break it down like this.
How long before you think the grid where you live will be able to handle that 500% ++ increase in demand, and what do you think the price of power might be to pay for the infrastructure to supply it?
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