EV Market, 20-Year Bet

[bigrockcandymountain]

Uh oh that diy electric car forum is probably going to take up some of my spare time.  The mustang retains its manual and clutch.  I really had no idea this was something people were doing.  That is awesome. 

[Mary B]

I saw a conversion where they kept the trans. It was a 4 speed and the guy left it in 3rd gear most of the time and only shifted if he was towing his camper, it let him accelerate faster. It was on YouTube years ago...

Malls? 200 mile round trip LOL large gas station(interstate type) is around 150 miles round trip... I live in the middle of nowhere... literally! 17 mile to a town of 1500, and 25 to a town of 3000 and one of 5000 population, the 200 miles gets me to a city of 100k or more, 300 gets me to the Twin Cities(Minneapolis/Saint Paul) metro area that I avoid like the plague due to crime rates. 13 people per square mile where I live...

[MattM]

Could be interesting for sure.  But that Camaro conversion that snapped the frame in a drag race made me leary.

The boat conversions, especially party boats with solar, are more straight forward.

[Bruce S]

Jerry of jerry-rigged and famous GarboGen here; I believe did a pickup conversion to battery as well. It may still be on here in the deep recesses of the archives.

He left his tranny in too, wasn't worth all the extra work removing it. I put it in high gear and left it there. Put the batteries in under the bed, that lifted up for access.

Bruce S

[Mary B]

Could be interesting for sure.  But that Camaro conversion that snapped the frame in a drag race made me leary.

The boat conversions, especially party boats with solar, are more straight forward.

I have gave serious thought to a 10x6 foot mini pontoon for the local lake, electric power because all I do is troll walleyes or drift and catch crappies... small and light so won't need a ton of power

[SparWeb]

The subject of DIY auto conversions has come up many before here, too:

https://www.fieldlines.com/index.php/topic,144516

https://www.fieldlines.com/index.php/topic,149216

https://www.fieldlines.com/index.php/topic,146640

[jlsoaz]

I like your thinking, but the math (unless I am missing something) is that if the efficiencies were roughly between 14 kWh and 30 kWh per 100 km, then this is between 28 kWh and 60 kWh per 200 km.

For what it's worth, across a Leaf BEV, Chevy Volt PHEV (when driving all electric) and Tesla Model S BEV over the last nine years, I generally expect around 3 miles per kWh (I think this calculates to about 21 kWh/100 km).  This number gets a bit better for me if I am being careful of my driving style, and the conditions are right, and it can get worse than that too.  If I were driving a pickup or SUV or the like, I would expect the numbers to get a bit worse.  They would also be notably worse in a colder climate or time of year.  I've only been driving four door sedans and compacts because that was more readily purchase-able, but eventually I do hope to get a larger pickup or some sort of more utility-oriented vehicle.

Here i see charging stations everywhere you would need them and no electric cars. 

I can't really explain why, but i love the idea of an electric retrofit in some old car. I really like the simplicity of an electric motor and batteries.  I think if you could retrofit a decent old chassis for say $10 000, even if it didn't have a long range, people might do it for a commuter car.  I would definitely do it.  I'm usually pretty out of touch with the main population though. 

I did some quick research, and electric cars are getting from 14kwh/100km to 30kwh/100km.  I'm starting to think that with a bit bigger solar array and bit higher output turbine, we may have the power for it.  We do maybe 200km a week so 4 to 8 kwh per day.  That doesn't sound so bad to me. 

I like a stick shift.  I wonder if an electric motor would pair well with a 5 speed.

[jlsoaz]

plugin vehicles at 6.6m new sales in 2021. 
source:
https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo-2022/page/3/1?teaser=yes

importantly, this is plug-in hybrid as well as bev.  It was never fully clarified if the 2017 20-year bet was for just BEV or if it included PHEV.  Offhand, I don't know the number for BEV only in 2021.  I also don't know if the 6.6m is passenger vehicles only.

For the denominator, I'm not sure where to get that, but I'll try here:

https://www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/
global sales for all vehicles = 82,684,788
if we are talking passenger vehicles only then the number is 56,398,471.

Imperfectly trying to work up a number here, it looks like we can estimate global % of new vehicle sales for EVs in 2021 was:

6,600,000/82,684,788

=7.98%

but again there are a few unknowns here so we may decide it's best to take a different approach to the calculation.

So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future?  Who thinks they're a fad?

Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years

[...]

[Mary B]

I got a text message I may experience blackouts the next 3 days due to heat.

How are they going to charge all these EV's?

[SparWeb]

LOL
What's their reason for the blackouts now, Mary?
Actually if your utility company is still rebuilding after the storms last month, then it sounds like they're still running something on backups and baling wire.

I had several blackouts here due to wind storms.

[SparWeb]

jlsoaz,
You've made me notice something that I didn't think of when making by bet.  I'm not sure I can trace back the same statistics that I used during my research before placing the bet.  And even if I can (I know I used Wikipedia for some of it) there's no guarantee that the page will still contain the same information 20 years later, or have info using the same basis.  All sorts of things could change.

I can confirm that I really meant "passenger automobiles". 
I was also not considering motorcycles or 3-wheelers either.
The stats I consulted did not distinguish between hybrid or pure EV's, then. 
Maybe in a decade or so, if they're popular enough, we make a distinction in the statistics (any sufficiently large group will be sub-divided by a statistician; it's a law).
But the stats didn't start out that way.
That should help pin down the winning criteria when 2037 comes to an end.


Some food for thought:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/06/the-driving-enthusiasts-dilemma-about-electric-cars/


Today there is a used 2019 Nissan Leaf on a used-car dealer's lot nearby for 37k CAD (28k USD).  Which is ridiculous because that's the NEW price.
I've heard that used auto prices are excessively high these days, including EV's because of long delivery times from the factories.
May be great for some used EV owners who are willing to sell.  But if they can't buy a new EV, that means they are going BACK to a ICE vehicle.
<sound of forehead slapping>

[MattM]

All consumer grade cars - not just EVs - are pretty much used or by order.  If you want commercial vehicles or luxury cars then very little trouble finding one.  It's almost like its on purpose...

[Mary B]

LOL
What's their reason for the blackouts now, Mary?
Actually if your utility company is still rebuilding after the storms last month, then it sounds like they're still running something on backups and baling wire.

I had several blackouts here due to wind storms.

Xcel shut down several coal plants in favor of wind and solar... they lost base load and can't make up for it with renewable's.

[Mary B]

jlsoaz,
You've made me notice something that I didn't think of when making by bet.  I'm not sure I can trace back the same statistics that I used during my research before placing the bet.  And even if I can (I know I used Wikipedia for some of it) there's no guarantee that the page will still contain the same information 20 years later, or have info using the same basis.  All sorts of things could change.

I can confirm that I really meant "passenger automobiles". 
I was also not considering motorcycles or 3-wheelers either.
The stats I consulted did not distinguish between hybrid or pure EV's, then. 
Maybe in a decade or so, if they're popular enough, we make a distinction in the statistics (any sufficiently large group will be sub-divided by a statistician; it's a law).
But the stats didn't start out that way.
That should help pin down the winning criteria when 2037 comes to an end.


Some food for thought:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/06/the-driving-enthusiasts-dilemma-about-electric-cars/


Today there is a used 2019 Nissan Leaf on a used-car dealer's lot nearby for 37k CAD (28k USD).  Which is ridiculous because that's the NEW price.
I've heard that used auto prices are excessively high these days, including EV's because of long delivery times from the factories.
May be great for some used EV owners who are willing to sell.  But if they can't buy a new EV, that means they are going BACK to a ICE vehicle.
<sound of forehead slapping>

integrated circuit shortage is going to run into late 2023 so cars/trucks don't have the parts needed to get them on the road. You drive a rolling PC these days with peripherals scattered all over the car. Case in point, I had a window sensor chip for the rear passenger side window that was bad when I bought my car 2 years ago. It just came in this week so setting up a time to get it put in and to have a recall fixed for slipping out of park(and tossing on an oil change since it has been nagging me for 4 months to bring it in, I only put 3500 miles on the last change... and 500 miles since it started nagging me at 3k miles. Supposed to be able to go 5k between changes).

[Mary B]

Living in MN an EV isn't very useful in winter...

but if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use for those trips to town where it is just myself. Would prefer a cargo space that is enclosed and could hold 2 weeks worth of groceries without doing contortions to get to it...

Until they figure out how to heat the cab at -20f in a 30mph wind an EV is useless for me in winter. I have an aversion to frostbite driving to town. Guy I know bought a Tesla and he swears at it in winter, he went so far as to put a small propane heater in the passenger seat to try and stay warm. He lives up north where he deals with -40f(also -40c!) a few times a winter...

[bigrockcandymountain]

A relative with a tesla showed me an app he has for tracking his electrical consumption.  His car was not #1 I think his hot tub was.  His A/c and water heater both were close to his car too.

I guess my point is that the grid will grow to support electric cars just like it has grown to support hot tubs, 70" tvs, air conditioners etc. 

In fact, when I think about all the unnecessary crap people have plugged in to the grid, I conclude that the price of power should go up 5x or so.  Maybe that would help with the blackouts. 

Geez, I sound like a lunatic off grid hippie

[MattM]

The 'shortage' of integrated chips is nonsense.  The automobile makers can afford to outbid most of the consumer grade CPU manufacturers for fabrication of wafers and space in the line for manufacturing.  They have chosen not to do so.

[SparWeb]

Geez, I sound like a lunatic off grid hippie

What, like we invite that kind of comment around here!?

Matt,
The automakers wouldn't dare bid up the price of something that is a large and growing portion of the cost of every car they produce.  That would decimate the profit on the backlog of cars they have already sold.

Anyway, the shortage is on raw material stocks that feed the process at the chip manufacturing plants.  They are dependent on a wide variety of chemicals for substrate, etching, bonding, and lithography, and up until recently the just-in-time supply chain worked well for them.  They have NO on-site storage of materials and feed products except what they have been able to scramble in place in the last couple of years. One little interruption shuts the whole process down.

[SparWeb]

Mary,

but if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use

https://aptera.us/

Oh-

wait...

25k USD!!!!!!!

[Mary B]

Mary,

but if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use

https://aptera.us/

Oh-

wait...

25k USD!!!!!!!

(Attachment Link)

Started out affordable then rapidly got out of control expensive because they made it luxury inside. I can get by without AC, only need an am/fm radio that is basic to feed 2 speakers, a comfortable seat is a must but plenty of aftermarket racing seats that fit that bill.

I keep looking at those cheap 3 wheel 150cc scooters that can do 60mph. How can I add a cab to this thing to make it rainy day useful? Just keep the rain off s I am not soggy when I arrive. https://www.360powersports.com/ice-bear-zodiac-pst300-19-300cc-trike-automatic-with-reverse/

[Bruce S]

Mary,

but if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use

https://aptera.us/

Oh-

wait...

25k USD!!!!!!!

(Attachment Link)

Started out affordable then rapidly got out of control expensive because they made it luxury inside. I can get by without AC, only need an am/fm radio that is basic to feed 2 speakers, a comfortable seat is a must but plenty of aftermarket racing seats that fit that bill.

I keep looking at those cheap 3 wheel 150cc scooters that can do 60mph. How can I add a cab to this thing to make it rainy day useful? Just keep the rain off s I am not soggy when I arrive. https://www.360powersports.com/ice-bear-zodiac-pst300-19-300cc-trike-automatic-with-reverse/

I am inline for one of those Aptera 3-wheelers  . Went so far as to put down a deposit too.
I am also getting so many dealer offers to buy my 2018 Hybrid that if I sold it I could buy the Aptera fully loaded (including the camping package and enough battery packs for us to reach the 1,000 mile mark) and still have money left over. However the waiting line is a long one.

Mary B, good idea to go with the 300cc, I had a 150cc 3-wheeled unit named a Spider and painted like Bumble Bee 
Below is a horrible picture of it. Knowing it now, I should've not sold it. It was a blast to ride! A 300cc would be much better for highway speeds since the 150cc struggled to get past 50mph (~80Kph)
 
I put a Windshield on it and was in the process of Building/Attaching panels for rainy weather. I wore heated motorcycle outfit for the dryer but colder days.
My ankles cannot take the constant shifting of a "normal" bike so twist-n-go ones are what I lean towards now.

Hope this helps
Bruce S

[JW]

 I am a ASE recertified Master Technician and ASE Advanced level Specialist. I had a car come into my shop the other day, it had an electric power steering rack and pinion. I jumped in the car and the steering was really stiff. I said there's nothing I can do with this, this is a proprietary system only the dealer can service it. In the days of OBD2 the govt made sure everybody had access to emission's control. The stuff coming down the pike now, I don't know what were going to do in the near future.   

[jlsoaz]

Thanks for the info about driving in the cold.  With respect to BEV 3-wheelers, there is Arcimoto, Electrmechanicca (sp?) and supposedly solar-powered Aptera.  It sounds like a plug-in hybrid of some sort would be a compromise that could provide sufficient heat in winter, but I don't pay as much attention to PHEVs.  For BEVs, they are very popular in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland, so I would e surprised if someone had not devised some improved answers on how to get a BEV to provide sufficient internal heating, but I don't know.

Living in MN an EV isn't very useful in winter...

but if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use for those trips to town where it is just myself. Would prefer a cargo space that is enclosed and could hold 2 weeks worth of groceries without doing contortions to get to it...

Until they figure out how to heat the cab at -20f in a 30mph wind an EV is useless for me in winter. I have an aversion to frostbite driving to town. Guy I know bought a Tesla and he swears at it in winter, he went so far as to put a small propane heater in the passenger seat to try and stay warm. He lives up north where he deals with -40f(also -40c!) a few times a winter...

[jlsoaz]

HI - I think the main point to pencil in is to decide if the bet includes Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs), or not.  (Note, these should be distinguished from non-pluggable hybrids like the original Priuses).  I don't think non-pluggable hybrids should apply to the bet, but PHEVs maybe should apply, hard to say for sure.  PHEVs are, so far, usually lumped in wtih BEVs in industry discussions about "EVs" up to this point.  It's hard to say if that will continue.

jlsoaz,
You've made me notice something that I didn't think of when making by bet.  I'm not sure I can trace back the same statistics that I used during my research before placing the bet.  And even if I can (I know I used Wikipedia for some of it) there's no guarantee that the page will still contain the same information 20 years later, or have info using the same basis.  All sorts of things could change.

I can confirm that I really meant "passenger automobiles". 
I was also not considering motorcycles or 3-wheelers either.
The stats I consulted did not distinguish between hybrid or pure EV's, then. 
Maybe in a decade or so, if they're popular enough, we make a distinction in the statistics (any sufficiently large group will be sub-divided by a statistician; it's a law).
But the stats didn't start out that way.
That should help pin down the winning criteria when 2037 comes to an end.


Some food for thought:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/06/the-driving-enthusiasts-dilemma-about-electric-cars/


Today there is a used 2019 Nissan Leaf on a used-car dealer's lot nearby for 37k CAD (28k USD).  Which is ridiculous because that's the NEW price.
I've heard that used auto prices are excessively high these days, including EV's because of long delivery times from the factories.
May be great for some used EV owners who are willing to sell.  But if they can't buy a new EV, that means they are going BACK to a ICE vehicle.
<sound of forehead slapping>

[Mary B]

6 power outages in 2 months, 4 utility warnings about possible blackouts to reduce grid load...

No way they can power all the EV's it will take. And public transport doesn't exist out here.

[tanner0441]

Hi

I have not heard of any country where power workers are looking forward to everyone driving EVs. Here in the UK if everyone is driving an electric car they will never need snow clearing the roads and pavements will all be too warm for the snow to settle.

Read today that a couple of counties are trying electric police vehicles. There is a problem, with all the lights, electronics and sirens they are not lasting a shift and the cars are running out of power and stopping..

Brian

[DamonHD]

National Grid in the UK is on the record multiple times as saying that almost everyone could switch to EVs right now without significant new infrastructure so long as they were careful about when the EVs were charged.  And the EV charger regulations have just been updated a bit (in June) to mean that EV users could be a little bit less careful and the grid would not buckle.

I don't think that we should be aiming to swap ICE cars for EVs 1:1 as there are far too many (and too large) vechicles on the road already, with a large chunk of their journeys unnecessary or quicker by foot, push-bike or e-bike.

Rgds

Damon

[joestue]

I have worked the math out myself as well, the grid can handle EV load, as when millions of people use them more regularly the charging can be done at night and discharging back to the grid can be done at peak load.

This will require new infrastructure in concentrated cities and new substations or upgraded substations in the suburbs but overall save the country money with reduced cost per mile of travel.

It's just that the batteries likely will never pay for themselves, but people who buy new vehicles don't care.

For example, I'm considering buying a 1996 Toyota pickup truck for 3.5K and installing a 2 liter turbo diesel from a 2000 era VW in it, for a cost of an additional couple grand, if that much, And run it for at least another 200k miles on top of the 300k that Toyota already has.

Or I can buy a new truck for 30K. How long does the fuel savings of the new truck pay for itself? Plus maintenance? Possibly never.

[Mary B]

MN summer, night grid load is not low... everyone is running air conditioning around the clock. Turn it off at night and you will have 80-90% humidity in the house by morning, only 80f right now at 11:56AM but humidity is 81%! I lie to breathe at night LOL

Fall rolls around and all the grain dryers startup. The blower motors draw what my house does... and they run 24/7 until harvest is finished and all grain is down to storage moisture levels. When the co-op kicks theirs on the town browns out for a couple minutes! They have 6 huge bins...

[SparWeb]

Funny you should mention that.
Earlier this summer I got frequent brown-outs and suspected a number of irrigation pumps in the area.  Over the years more and more of them have been tied in with electric motors, replacing the diesel units.  It is much quieter now than it was 10 years ago!  So on the whole I think it is better.

After an unusual month of rain, the irrigation pivots have stopped, and so have the brownouts.

The brownouts (and spikes that follow) seem to shorten the life of LED lights.

[SparWeb]

Footnote.
The latest irrigation pump to go electric also paid for a new distribution line.  There is now 3-phase power distribution on a branch just 1/4 mile from my house.
Hmmm....

[SparWeb]

Uptake of EV's in North America is still slow:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/11/only-1-in-3-americans-would-prefer-an-electric-vehicle-survey-finds/

It would help if I could find reasonably priced used EV's!

I'm not interested in "shopping cart" EV's like the Bolt, since I drive highways a lot, and on snow and gravel.  I don't expect an EV is in principle vulnerable to these things, but any undersized car is.  I reviewed the prices of used (well new and used) EV's for sale in my area and all of them start at 25k and go up quickly from there.  So even if I wanted to buy a new or used EV, I can't start for anything less than 30K unless I wanted to take a risk on a very old / high mileage machine.  I really don't want to spend more than 20K on a vehicle right now, so I'll be keeping my old cars on the road a bit longer, yet.

It seems like the supply shortage of microchips, which led to new vehicle production shortages, has held the price of used cars very high.  This is happening across North America, and I suspect in other parts of the world, too.

Buying any used car can be seen as enabling the sale of a new car, on the part of the seller.  People selling cars usually want to get another, or have already bought a new (or newer) one and completing the transition to the new vehicle by selling the old one.  The exchange of money makes a difference to many people who can't afford a new car unless they can get cash from selling the old one.  So it's frustrating to see such high prices just when it's time for a wholesale change to electric.

[bigrockcandymountain]

The ford dealer is across the street from my post office.  The other day i noticed they had a brand new mach e on the lot, so i shuffled over to see the sticker price. 

Yikes, almost $90 000.

I looked back across the street at my old Volkswagen that i am in for $1500 and decided to drive it for another few years. 

I'm not sure I'm even excited for used electric cars.  They are so packed with extra electronic junk that I'm not sure they will be worth anything after 10 years. 

There is no reason to pack an electric car with thousands of bells and whistles but is seems like everybody is doing it.  I might have to convert an old body yet.  I see some hybrid battery packs coming up for sale lately. It sounds like a fun project, but a huge project.  Bigger that a wind turbine and a lot more learning to do before i start.