EV Market, 20-Year Bet

[jlsoaz]

jlsoaz,
Thanks for the update!

I am not having any luck finding anyone to bet against me on this one.

If I recall, at the time, there was another Australian (George?) who was quite strongly skeptical of EVs, and I was conflicting with him and in general my impression part of the point was to bring the discussion a bit into calming down and focus.  And I think it worked out.

In the meantime, I think EVs have continued to emerge as a legit viable contender to be part of someone's thoughtful sustainable household, whether that's a do-it-yourself orientation to the household or a bit more store-bought.  There are still drawbacks, but as the days pass, those drawbacks are fading.

I tend not to bet money much, whether short- or long-term, and I don't own equities in electric vehicles or other clean energy areas.  With that said, I do work in the area of gathering and analyzing information about the nascent EV industry, and we can perhaps turn part of this conversation toward some of the harder questions:

- To what extent (if any) will PHEV be part of the future mix, or will it be all BEV, or will it be more complicated (BEV/PHEV/FCV/ICV).
- As time passes, the bet as originally stated seems modest (even if it is adjusted only to include BEV) but it does provide a toe-hold for us to look at some really exciting developments such as looking at some of the ICV bans that have already been scheduled and asking what will become of the existing ICV vehicles and fuels for them.
- Will anyone finally develop viable zero-carbon drop-in replacement fuels that will allow for continued use of the existing fleet (in which case there is a chance this bet could become a much closer thing)?

[SparWeb]

Yes there is some optimism that the bet may pay up sooner than expected, but I don't expect my sole bid-taker to come back. If he does, I'd be interested to hear his thoughts about it.  He was willing to share them at the time.

In addition, there's been a recent commitment by GM to produce more EV's.  It's too soon to understand what they really MEAN by the announcement they made last week - I still haven't found any specific details.  By ~2030 they intend to have more EV's in their offerings but whether they mean BEV's, hybrids or PHEV's is not clear yet.  I suspect the commitment stands as a gesture, perhaps mostly of political support, to the new administration in Washington. 

Attitudes in some people will change, others will not no easily.  If EV production becomes much more prevalent in the USA, don't be surprised to see an inversion of used-car values as people hold onto their fuel vehicles as long as they can.  Change is hard.

[ruddycrazy]

Well the Federal EV report has been leaked over the pond here and the govt has said NO subsidies will be given on new EV's and charging stations will be a business expense NOT the govt's.

Here in the Adelaide Hills everytime theres a storm towns lose their power sometimes for over a day. Over 20 years ago here the grid was leased for 99 years to a HongKong billionaire and since then no major infrastructure has been done. Power lines are a major cause of bushfires  yet this govt won't mandate power lines be put underground to eliminate the bush fire risk.

Last election Labor went forward and sprouted EV's where the loony lnp got on the band wagon saying every tradie would lose their hilux.

So elsewhere in the world EV's may be the new thing but over the pond here we are being left behind in a big way

[jlsoaz]

Some deeper information about some of the extraordinary 2020 numbers from the European Markets, including some discussion of how policy played a role. 
https://vimeo.com/509901333
[about 13 minutes, 30 seconds]
BNEF Talk: Understanding Europe’s EV Market
3 hours ago
BloombergNEF
Business
Europe’s EV market is taking off. Sales doubled in 2020 and are set to jump again in 2021. This talk will look at what’s driving the changes, how Europe’s approach differs from China and the U.S., the lessons for other regions, and the outlook for the next five years.
Aleksandra O'Donovan

[jlsoaz]

Well the Federal EV report has been leaked over the pond here and the govt has said NO subsidies will be given on new EV's and charging stations will be a business expense NOT the govt's.

Here in the Adelaide Hills everytime theres a storm towns lose their power sometimes for over a day. Over 20 years ago here the grid was leased for 99 years to a HongKong billionaire and since then no major infrastructure has been done. Power lines are a major cause of bushfires  yet this govt won't mandate power lines be put underground to eliminate the bush fire risk.

Last election Labor went forward and sprouted EV's where the loony lnp got on the band wagon saying every tradie would lose their hilux.

So elsewhere in the world EV's may be the new thing but over the pond here we are being left behind in a big way

Hi -

Good to have this point of view.  I'm wondering if there is some commonality here for some of us, not so much as to which country, but as to rural- or semi-rural point of view. 

Here in far southern Arizona, USA, I"m at about 3500 feet above sea level, and I won't say I'm in the middle of nowhere, but there are only about 50k people in this small old county.  When I got an EV in 2012 (partly due to professional interest) there were no public charge stations.  I put one in with a partner in 2013, donated free to the community, and that is (to this day) still the only proper hard-wired Level 2 station.  There are no fast stations.  (A good low-cost measure that can be taken to address this lack of public charge stations in some areas is to enable common plugs, for those businesses willing to do so as a stop-gap measure.... for example, there is a bed and breakfast 20 miles away that has an occasional Tesla guest because they let the guests fill up overnight with a 240 Volt common plug.... the county does have some of these other common plugs that have been abled, but our station is still the only full-blown Level 2 hard-wired J1772 connection point). 

So, things have moved slowly in parts of the US as well.  I sometimes see some of this not through the usual/mainstream industry analysis lens, but a bit of it through the lens of rural-vs-city, and how analysts and news and policy folks tend unfortunately to be biased in making analysis and news and policy with a city-focus.  This happens in various types of issues of course, ... not just EV industry discussion.  [I'm having some deja vu now.... years ago, before I got an EV, a board participant, I can't remember who, predicted that one of the most salient points for me might be the rural-vs-city aspect.]

I do think extended grid outages such as you mention are a consideration in getting an EV, though I would imagine many of the readers on fieldlines would have by now some of their own energy collection/storage so a grid outage may not be a black and white matter for them.  I do have solar and some battery storage and a grid connection.  We do have occasional (once every few years.... wild guess) extended (a few hours) grid outages here, last I checked (a few years ago).  We also have I think a lot of smaller outages.  The main problems I've had, as all of this relates to my present EV, are:

- one of my charging spots tends to get very finicky (a lot of turning off and on, and it may or may not be hurting the vehicle).  I have never figured out if this is because of the grid or for some other reason.  My poor-man's stop-gap solution is I unplugged the car from that spot and plugged into a steadier battery-backed lower voltage connection on a different circuit, and the car seems happier with that, though it prevents me from quick-charges except in a pinch.
- I have no idea if/when/how often/for how long the grid goes out.  The folks who made the hardware and software for my inverter and batteries (Outback) still haven't devised a way to communicate this to me in a way that is fool-proofed to the point where even I can deal with it.  (Not to do with my EV, but to do with this pet peeve of inverter/software systems that do not tell a person this key information, it has also led to two major internet outages for me over the last year, as my provider of internet by mountaintop microwave/radio has had grid issues but has not known it because (I'm told) of the lack of notification clarity from their battery backup system).

Other issues at random:
- closest service center that can handle repairs on the vehicle is 52 miles away.  To this day, not one single dealer in the county sells any of the good long-range BEVs.
- hilliness of the county is an added factor in dealing with EV range considerations.
- I have to leave the house with a fairly full battery in order to get around without too much difficulty or range anxiety. 
- there is such a lack of selection of good long-range BEVs (and ones where the batteries have not been killed yet by the heat) that have yet trickled down into the used marketplace, and the incumbent volume manufacturers are taking their sweet time for so many years (decades) to bring them to market, that there is a lot of compromise inherent to one's BEV buying decisions, especially for this area (lots of pickup trucks and SUVS in the parking lots in this area, and for the most part they're not an affectation, they're just what people need to tend to go about their business).  I'll probably trade my long-range BEV sedan for a more utilitaritian truck or SUV of some sort, in a few years, once the used market starts to fill in with a really good robust selection. 

[jlsoaz]

A side-bet suggestion (well, a side-note, and just using the language of betting for fun):

I've mentioned that my work has to do with the electric vehicle industry (information, data, analysis).  Within those circles, it is fairly clear that we are on a path toward high percentages of BEVs on the road around the world.  However, the conversation around whether zero-net-carbon synthetic fuels can be developed and deployed, which would allow prolonging of the lives of internal combustion vehicles around the world, and possibly even just allow the internal combustion technology to continue with new sales,..... that conversation doesn't seem to take place very often these days, in analyst circles.

Coming back to this bet, the only way I can see hydrocarbon (or similar) fuel vehicles continuing to compete into the 2030s and 2040s is if the fuels are synthetic low- or zero- net carbon.  Other things would need to fall into place, such as some who are willing to make and distribute the fuels.  If those things fell into place, then is it possible we might see ICV and PHEVs into the 2030s and 2040s, and maybe even beyond?  I suppose.

As to H2 as fuel, I am skeptical this could ever work for consumers and light duty vehicles, if only due to the fuel handling and storage and generation disadvantages, but given the advantages of fuel cells over combustion (primarily in my view that they avoid carnot cycle efficiency questions), it does seem possible that fuel cell vehicles (perhaps powered by fuel cells that can use something other than pure H2, or which can have onboard reforming) might be competitive as PHEVs or pure FCVs.

I'm not personally capable around do-it-yourself types of challenges, but many of the people on this board are.  Back 10-20 years ago, I used to hear more about home-made or small-shop-made biofuels, and I'm wondering a bit if some folks here will either help to invent a more modern recipe (such as pulling H2O and CO2 fuel ingredients from the air and other ecosystem instead of from vegetable oils), or help implement early testing/production once such a recipe is invented.

[SparWeb]

. that conversation doesn't seem to take place very often these days, in analyst circles.

I don't know what the analysts say, but conversion from one fuel to another is a "niche" and very rare.  Consider the likelihood that a typical auto owner does their own maintenance any more, and compare that to the much higher effort/risk/cost to convert an engine to an alternative fuel.  The most flexible type (diesel) is very unpopular and very rare in North America and already becoming much less common in Europe - soon to be banned in many places.  This addresses the largest current markets, but ignores the growth markets which promise to be even larger.  My read on fuel conversions is they are common only when economically forced upon people through economic deprivation.  Heaven forbid that condition ever exists in North America or Europe.

I do seriously entertain the idea of converting my car - but in my case from gasoline to electric.  I would never consider a diesel/biodiesel conversion, because I have such an attractive alternative (electric).  I've looked at some biodiesel conversions and they "have issues".

I used to hear more about home-made or small-shop-made biofuels

Yes, me too.  Again, I think the disappearance of diesel cars is driving this down. 

[jlsoaz]

Hi SparWeb

On the issue of converting from ICV to BEV, I had kind of forgotten about that, and yes, it does seem like a good fit for the skillsets and interests of some of the folks here.  I do think we are moving closer to the point of manufacturers meeting hands-on folks partway, such as with kits of this type:

https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/02/gm-announces-electric-conversion-kit/
Nov 2, 2020 - 01:19 pm
GM announces electric conversion kit

---------

On the separate issue of zero-carbon fuels,

- Your points about the reduced availability of diesel vehicles in the US make sense.

- Overall, I was really referring to something a bit different than synthesizing fuels which would still require vehicle modification.  I think something was lost in the translation.  Although vehicle conversion has in the past been relevant, I had more in mind the synthesis of fuels that, ideally, could be drop-in fuel replacements in existing gasoline vehicles.  To be sure, it seems more likely that the vehicles would require some moderate modification, as making a fully compatible gasoline drop-in replacement that requires no modification for the vehicle seems possibly very difficult, but I know little about it.  In any event, I had more in mind the skills and want-to of people who might take publicly published recipes for fuel synthesis and start to tinker a bit.

Musk (of all people) has recently considered carbon cleanup (offhand I don't remember the wording he used) of such importance that he has funded a $100m prize in this area.  You might say that's not the same thing as my attempt at a fuel synthesis topic, but I think once folks start getting better at taking CO2 out of the atmosphere and taking the Carbon atoms and combining them with other atoms, it is a hop-skip-and-jump to asking that the resultant molecules be stable potential building blocks for construction, or at least sequesterable in liquid or solid stable form.  Might they also be burned or converted into energy by fuel cells?  I suppose.  Anyway, once we get better at manipulating these molecules, I'm wondering if the recipes can include HxCx that could go into existing engines.  As unlikely as this sounds, it's the only scenario I can think of from a business/economics standpoint that allows for continuation of the combustion engine story line.

A simplified version of the conversation might be at-home hydrogen production and conversion of vehicles to burn or fuel-cell-convert the hydrogen.  I'm not thinking this is economically realistic on a wide scale, and it doesn't really speak directly to carbon cleanup, but it allows for the momentary consideration (for purposes just of proving some plausibility) of a scenario which may not be economically likely, but which is physically plausible, where some could synthesize their own gaseous fuel and use it.

. that conversation doesn't seem to take place very often these days, in analyst circles.

I don't know what the analysts say, but conversion from one fuel to another is a "niche" and very rare.  Consider the likelihood that a typical auto owner does their own maintenance any more, and compare that to the much higher effort/risk/cost to convert an engine to an alternative fuel.  The most flexible type (diesel) is very unpopular and very rare in North America and already becoming much less common in Europe - soon to be banned in many places.  This addresses the largest current markets, but ignores the growth markets which promise to be even larger.  My read on fuel conversions is they are common only when economically forced upon people through economic deprivation.  Heaven forbid that condition ever exists in North America or Europe.

I do seriously entertain the idea of converting my car - but in my case from gasoline to electric.  I would never consider a diesel/biodiesel conversion, because I have such an attractive alternative (electric).  I've looked at some biodiesel conversions and they "have issues".

I used to hear more about home-made or small-shop-made biofuels

Yes, me too.  Again, I think the disappearance of diesel cars is driving this down.

[Mary B]

Issue facing these markets is rare earth minerals needed in the motors, some battery designs, fuel cells use platinum or some other expensive and rare metal...

Plus the mining/refining of lithium... large open pit mines...

These vehicles are NOT all that green in the long run!

[SparWeb]

Nope, they are still things that were made.  There aren't any manufactured products that don't consume a resource from the Earth in some way.  So every car sold uses resources, no matter what people call it.

This actually gets me a little haughty about people who sell their fuel-vehicle car to get a Tesla...  They've green-washed their immediate household, but what they also did was pay for the consumption of the resources needed to build 2 metric tons of automobile.  I then notice that the used car they sold wasn't more than 10 years old.  Or if they traded it in from a lease it might be 3.  So somebody else is driving the used gasoline car for another decade or two.  Then I hop in my 14-year-old gasoline car and sprint around on a hyperactive 4-cylinder engine, and wonder which is really better?  The point I am at right now, I already have a car.  If I buy another one, do I scrap this one, or sell it to someone else?  Well then that person has a used car that burns gasoline to drive around.  The total number of vehicles in the world goes up if I buy a Tesla today.  I don't want to buy a Tesla to green-wash my life or rub my friends' noses in it.  I want a Tesla because life's more interesting when you embrace new stuff, and I'm resourceful enough to deal with any novel complications that come up.

I've chosen to wait for later, when my current car is about to quit.  But I have resolved to make my next car electric; hybrid at least, but possibly a used BEV (Tesla) would be better, too.  The logic I just worked through is also useful in the choice of a used BEV, not just a new one.  In that case, I would be keeping on the road a battery-powered vehicle, rather than rejecting it, suppressing its resale value, like others might do.  That way I still don't provoke the manufacture of another automobile.

[Scruff]

The Tesla is too heavy...glass roof?!?

I too drive old ICEs, Jap scrap. I saved 'em from becoming bean tins.

The EV isn't especially very green, but the powerplant is unrivalled.

Telsa are recalling 100k cars on manufactured obsolescence issues of the touch screen. Have recalled ~30k on suspension issues in China and are under investigation as to whether that suspension issue is warranting a national recall of another ~100k.

Incidentally, Tesla is selling the cars at a loss and turning a profit by selling "green credits" to ICE manufacturers.

All posturing and no substance.

[Mary B]

I just bought a 2017 Ford Escape to replace my rust bucket 2001 F-150 with the bad intake(5.4L common failure!). The 5.4 had 255 HP and 323 foot pounds fo torque. The 2.0L in the Escape has 245 HP and 275 foot pounds of torque and 4 less cylinders using fuel. Engine tech has come a long ways and is evolving rapidly as I type this. Better economy, more power from less engine... The direct injection 2.0L Ecoboost in the Escape was a redesign in 2015 to be a turbo charged engine from the start, they didn't tack turbos onto an existing engine and call it good while stressing the engine lower end. People are pushing the Escape to 500HP with aftermarket turbos and they are reliable still! All from a tiny 4 cylinder!

Fuel mileage went from 16-17 in the truck to an average of 24mpg in the Escape, it can do better but I like to drive and have a lead foot! Pollutes a lot less than the truck too!

I see the internal combustion engine sticking around a long time as it gets cleaner and more powerful from ever smaller displacement. Do V8's have a place? Sure for towing heavy loads. Most I tow is a 1500 pound boat...

[Scruff]

You crazy kids across the pond with yer insanely high displacements and terrible gas mileage.

This side of the planet a truck is anything with a GVM of 7.5 metric ton or greater. Mine's a 180hp 4.5L Turbo Diesel with ~24MPG
My van is a 2.3L 80hp 3.25t kerb weight ~28MPG, naturally-aspirated diesel
My jap scrap is 1.3L 1ton 65hp MPG...not the point lives around 5k RPM. Naturally aspirated petrol. That might eventually get E-drive swapped. ~35MPG
My running spare due for resurrection is 1.3L 80hp naturally aspirated petrol outpaces most it meets on power to weight.

All 4 bangers.

Mrs Scruff has a 1.1 diesel Vauxhaul Corsa that likes to pretend it's a German Opel but it's actually a Ford (GM parts). ~70MPG. It's a shopping trolley to me...low maintenence but a bit soft.

The embodied energy in the production of EVs is about parity with the production, maintenance & upkeep cost of ICEs. The tipping point is the fuel source...it that's FF derived then EV = not green(er). Cobalt comes at a high price.
If the choice is used ICE or new EV the used ICE is greener.

Then there's the questionable recyclability of li-ion because 1 billion 18650s is a nightmare to handle.
You can melt an ICE powerplant and turn it into a bean tin pretty simply.

Covid has done more for reducing CO₂ production worldwide than anything we've attempted to implement as a species.
I believe the planet is retaliating, covid is a warning shot across the bow.

I see climate change, we have 2 monsoon seasons a year for the last 5 years now and the south Atlantic drift current is moving away. kms of icefields dissolving..etc. etc.


If someone tells me they bought an EV because 100% torque at 0 RPM is something they appreciate I respect that.
If they're saving the planet...well the planet will persist, it's the species in jeopardy and in most cases it won't make a difference.
Green being and green doing...not always the same thing.

[Mary B]

Humans have survived ice ages and heat... we will be around no matter what this planet throws at us.

[Scruff]

We are self-assured alright.
I often have to question right and wrong. It's a human concept made by humans and subject to our own fallibilities.
For instance jobs for the boys = ok regardless if it's progressive or not.
Success is often measured in profitability which is another skewed human concept.
Crusaders are another nation's terrorists.
People quite often get caught up on the rules and abiding them but neglect the reason for the rule; for instance, is it right to reprimand someone for driving through a red light when it makes no difference to anyone else? Environmentally it's the conscientious thing to do.

Petrol powered leaf blowers, bitumen powered ice breakers....are they right?

[MattM]

Give commuters a tax advantage to go with EV and they'll sell like hotcakes to single types.  I drive a 16 mile round trip, alone, to work five days a week.  I've got a work provided vehicle once I get there if I need to run errands.  An EV would work for me.  I drive a 40 mpg car and fill up every 1.5 to 2 weeks on average.

But you will never convince my wife to part with her SUV she does the haulin' the family around with.  She drives 60 miles round trip to work, then occasionally takes it on 250-500 mile round trips for kid competitions and such.  An EV doesn't fit her occasional use model.  Instead of trying to get 100% transformation of society, focus on realistic targets.

[Scruff]

I'd get an EV they're great. It's not a replacement for an ICE it's a compliment to.
Same reason I have a car, a van and a truck.

[jlsoaz]

Badly (I would even say perversely) overdue, but progress on the low-carbon or net-zero-carbon drop-in replacement synthetic fuels front.  I guess they're using the term "e-fuels".  Relevance to this and similar threads is that if such fuels will finally be widely made and distributed, then it could delay or alter the present course (toward global BEV deployment) and allow for more combustion vehicles on the road for longer.

https://www.motor1.com/news/489509/porsche-synthetic-fuel-2022-production/
Porsche Synthetic Fuel Said To Be As Clean As EVs, Trials Start In 2022
Feb 20, 2021 12h ago
By: Jacob Oliva

[SparWeb]

Synthetic Fuel Said To Be As Clean As EVs

In my head, I always complete phrases like that with "...when the grid is supplied by coal."
Unfairly, I admit, but I've heard it before.  I haven't checked the details in the article. 
Nor do I plan to, since it's actually no more than 8 sentences long, and I normally stay away from marketing stuff like that.

[jlsoaz]

Synthetic Fuel Said To Be As Clean As EVs

In my head, I always complete phrases like that with "...when the grid is supplied by coal."

I agree.  I think the headline and the gist of that claim is not useful.  However, the article, and the development, provides me with a toe-hold to make a point that in my view badly needs making, which is that the underlying effort is going to get made.  Now, whether it will have any real meaning and impact, I don't know.

Unfairly, I admin.  I haven't checked the details in the article. 
Nor do I plan to, since it's actually no more than 8 sentences long, and I normally stay away from marketing stuff like that.

[Bruce S]

There's yet another wrinkle in the fuel biz.
Way back in 2014ish maybe 2016? there was a Japanese gent that built a device that would use about a 1kw of power. He would load it up with the plastic bags the stores automatically start stuffing your purchased items into and after a period of time they would reduce down to it base element of oil. Thin enough to be used in Diesel engines.

Now, because of the U-tube world and having a degree Google-fu  . There are people doing this using Pyrolysis, a lot of them are very crude, using more wood based fuel to make 500Ml of oil/diesel some a little more. However, there are some that are very well thought out and doing pretty good.

This method does do a few things, gets the nasty street floaters off the streets and turns these otherwise eye sores into usable fuel.
This in turn could possibly again slow down the move to a higher percentage of EVs in at least the short term.

I like my Hybrid, I like to quietness of it, and the pay-back costs in fuel savings is a real thing. With my 1.5L Cobalt I could get roughly 32mpg unless I was hyper-miling. With the Hybrid, high 40s is a no brainer, and in the city I'm always in the low 50mpg range. When using the toaster ( heater , defroster and bum warmer  ), I will only average low 40s/high 30s.

With petrol already having increased $0.40/gal USD. The payback will be even better.

Cheers
Bruce S

[Mary B]

You left out the heated steering wheel! LOL That and the butt warmer are a MUST on a cold day. I have reynaud syndrome in my hands, cold = hand pain, the heated steering wheel really helps.

[SparWeb]

the heated steering wheel! LOL That and the butt warmer are a MUST on a cold day.

Who is too good to settle for gloves and a blanket?   

[Mary B]

The Escape is my first vehicle with heated seats and steering wheel. Now I am spoiled LOL for the mileage I put on the Escape is probably the last vehicle I buy. I do 3k-5k miles a year at most...

[SparWeb]

Oh dear, I don't know if this is step forward for winning my bet or not...

Nation’s Monster Truck Rally Organizers Vow To Crush 100% Electric Cars By 2030
https://www.theonion.com/nation-s-monster-truck-rally-organizers-vow-to-crush-10-1846366255

[jlsoaz]

To the points raised as to claimed lack of green-ness of EVS compared to fossil-fueled, there was this meaty controversy last year, on the UK side of the Atlantic, helping to illustrate the amount of bs that is still out there trying to downplay some of the legitimate sustainability credentials of BEVs.  This is not to deny some legitimate questions around present-day (if not long-term) BEV sustainability in some aspects, but some of the points that are sometimes raised are simply not much worth taking seriously.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/02/aston-martin-pr-firm-anti-electric-vehicle-study
 Aston Martin
Aston Martin in row over 'sock puppet PR firm' pushing anti-electric vehicle study
Report disputing green benefits of EVs attributed to company registered to wife of carmaker’s director
Jillian Ambrose
Wed 2 Dec 2020 12.07 GMT
Last modified on Thu 3 Dec 2020 04.36 GMT

[Mary B]

Until the electricity is all nuke or renewable they are polluters. You just moved that from your tailpipe to a smokestack somewhere out of the city.

No charging stations out where I am... poor battery life in winter when I need massive amounts of heat to not get frostbite plus cold degradation of the battery capacity...

Just not viable yet.

[Bruce S]

There remains one item that Chris O put up back a few years ago, when the Green push was going hot-n-heavy and a lot of people did not have their thinking caps on .
Until they can shove the same amount of stored energy into a battery pack that is in one gal (3.8L)of Petrol , electric will not be able become the norm.
I drive a Hybrid, I like to mileage it gets both city and Highway, but some of the distances I drive are still out of range for an all electric.
Even if there were plugins every 200(+-)miles the time it takes would extend my trip times way too much.
Even if I have to complete the transformation from Petrol to pure alky my hybrid is E-85 compatible, I can still easily exceed a battery packs range.

I do hope that in the near future this changes.

Bruce S 
 

[jlsoaz]

Hi Bruce -

energy - combustion of about one US Gallon of Petrol releases about 110,000-130,000 BTU last I checked, and this is equal to about 32-38 kWh.  The battery packs of what I call "the good stuff" .... the BEVs that are either here already or almost here, and which are the actual best effort of the automakers, .... are generally between 60-100 kWh.  Some of them on the near horizon get up to around 200 kWh (upcoming Hummer EV?).  So, the better BEVs are now carrying in their battery packs (when full) the energy equivalent of about 2 to 4 US gallons of gasoline and headed for about 6 gallons in at least one or two of the upcoming top-of-the-line efforts.

range - Depending on vehicle size and segment and weather and such, a good 2021 BEV in the medium sedan segment will get nearly 4 miles/kWh or more.  However, larger or less efficient vehicles, or vehicles operated with heavy loads or in some conditions, can indeed get much less than that (2 or 3 miles/kWh or less).  a 100 kWh pack BEV at 4 miles/kWh or better will go about 400 miles or more on a charge.  Such a pack BEV in a less efficient situation could go 300 or even 200 miles or less, but this gives some idea of things.

speed of charge - I am not denying there are vast portions of the world where there is virtually no faster charging accessible in public (though for day to day use one can charge at home without bothering too much about public charging, if one's travel distances are modest).  However, as to the other areas, where charging is emerging, the fastest will get you something like 15 minutes for a 75 kWh (200-300 mile) charge.  At least one of the luxury automakers in China is now offering battery pack swapping.  Swapping has its own drawbacks, but a big plus is that it is relatively quick.  10-20 minutes?  I'm not sure of the time exactly.

So, basically, we may be further along than you realize, in some aspects.

There remains one item that Chris O put up back a few years ago, when the Green push was going hot-n-heavy and a lot of people did not have their thinking caps on .
Until they can shove the same amount of stored energy into a battery pack that is in one gal (3.8L)of Petrol , electric will not be able become the norm.
I drive a Hybrid, I like to mileage it gets both city and Highway, but some of the distances I drive are still out of range for an all electric.
Even if there were plugins every 200(+-)miles the time it takes would extend my trip times way too much.
Even if I have to complete the transformation from Petrol to pure alky my hybrid is E-85 compatible, I can still easily exceed a battery packs range.

I do hope that in the near future this changes.

Bruce S 
 

[MattM]

The only consumer benefit for an EV is dodging gasoline taxes.  They will fix that when enough EVs are on the road.  Death & taxes.

[Mary B]

Buttigeg already wants to tax per mile driven... doubt it will pass but dems never saw a tax they didn't like!

[Bruce S]

------NOTICE---- ENTERING Moderator MODE   

   

All;
We all have opinions of what's pertinent.

However Please refrain from political statements/Opinions.
There are users here that who are not US based.

Thanks for understanding

EXITING Moderator Mode 

[Bruce S]

jlsoaz;
I try to stay up on the current distances of the "affordable" EVs, BEVs and Hybrids.
However, until they can meet the distances and ease of refueling along with pricing, just aren't going to have people jumping on the bandwagon.
I look forward to seeing them reach the ranges, hopefully before I wear out my Hybrid  .

Cheers
Bruce S