Anyone want to make some bets that EV's in 20 years will still be a minor player in the personal and business transport market?
passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, minibuses, trucks, buses and coaches.which comes from this source: http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2016-statistics/
.....5 most popular EV:
Hello Paara,
Sounds great in Norway, and the other news coming from Europe is pretty positive, too.
Which vehicles have been the most popular?
5 most popular EV:
1 Nissan LEAF
2 Volkswagen e-Golf
3 Tesla Model S
4 BMW i3
5 Kia Soul Electric
So,,
When you say EV's , how many Wheels? 2,34, or more? Land only?
Agreed, it's hard to pick a target, not two, three, or more which just confuses the matter. So I picked one.
And I figured this was at least 1 thing we could agree on.
Theta are some Opel Amperas (same car as Chevrolet bolt, since Opel was inntil recently owned by Chevrolet) The car was very popular with lots og preorders, but Chevrolet is not able to deliver cars. Chevrolet preferes to sell the Bolt in the US, with losses due to emissions rulles, rather then export to abroad markeres. The wait for an ampera is 1-2years I belive, and thus its popularity has crashed. In additon they have increased the price several times after people have already signed contracts for the car. And Chevrolet has sold Opel making everything even more complicated.
There are even more hybrids/phev then EV (new sales)
I am getting confused by the naming. It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV],
I am getting confused by the naming. It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV],
Probably getting confused by all the needless acronyms.
They are either hybrids or EV's.
All the other add ons is just useless, annoying BS.
the above are more or less widely used/understood/vernacular amongst EV industry participants.
Do you know if there is a good website where I can see Norwegian BEV and PHEV sales? I'll take a look around.
George, in a way you have put your finger on what I can accept and not accept in an EV for myself. I can't afford a new one, and a pure EV just won't go the distance, so it's a used hybrid for my garage, when the time comes.
I'm still not sure why you are really concerned about "extra load" on the grid from EV's. Think of the time-scale. To have enough EV's plugged into the grid to even matter would take many years, maybe more than a decade before anyone will notice the "EV Bump" in consumption overnight.
Do you know if there is a good website where I can see Norwegian BEV and PHEV sales? I'll take a look around.
The EAFO (http://www.eafo.eu/content/norway) site has a good overview. I guess the statistics would be refreshed as we get a bit into the new year... :)
Hey, another contender: http://bollingermotors.com/ 8)
Well... seems to suit the Hummer/Navigator crowd, in that it sends a loud message. Urbanites have their particular uses for trucks and this might work. Country folk probably won't take to it.
One plus would be that there's no risk of setting a fire from engine exhaust (cause of many fires in Alberta every year).
A remote site with poor roads needing only occasional transportation may be suitable. Removes the need to store fuel if the site can be equipped with enough generating capacity. Still looks like a niche market. I'll keep my Chev 2500 for a while yet.
If Bollinger can make this one roadworthy and get a year of production under their belts, I'd hope to see a lot of changes in the follow-up models. Currently it looks like its made with flat sheet metal and welded stock shapes. Not a weight-efficient design - in a battery-powered vehicle that leaves a lot of room for improvement. I also suspect that all of the flat surfaces, combined with knobby tires, will make a very loud road-noise interior.
Bollinger estimated price: starting at $60k!!! YIKES!
First thing I'd look at and pay attention to if I were the maker would of course be Military applications.
Bollinger estimated price: starting at $60k!!! YIKES!
I don't know what 4WD's go for in the states and other parts of the world but I'd say in this market with that vehicle, it may not be a huge obstacle.
The thing looks pretty different and versatile and very often in marketing, Different is enough.
First thing I'd look at and pay attention to if I were the maker would of course be Military applications. If the thing can be made to have low noise and minimal heat signature, I could see it being a winner as a platform for Recce or other black op type uses. Certainly big enough for a gun platform and might also have uses for rescue applications. Be great as a surveillance platform, has it's own battery built right in to run all the electronics.
Thing is, one decent Gubbermint contract and you are laughing. Price would not be an issue at that rate either.
In the civillian market, it would have to offer advantages over conventional vehicles in order to have a chance at sales. The electric may be a big drawback. Thing runs out of power you have to get a generator and fuel to it and wait a long while for it to charge up as against an IC where you get the fuel, put it in and on your way. Might be a great thing for national parks and conservation areas where they want something quiet and the no emissions appeals and they only have limited distance to cover.
One would really have to analyse the market and see where the gaps were and how this thing would fill them with the abilities and weaknesses it has but I don't see $60K being a big hurdle if everything else is right with it.
I wonder how far you could travel if you packed it full of solar panels, deployed them all day, and drove all night, every day.
Seems just like that new, revolutionary engine that weighs nothing, get's 150 MPG and puts out 300 HP that we have heard about 50 times over the last 25+ years and still waiting to see.
So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future? Who thinks they're a fad?
Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years
[....]
Thanks for the update Jlsoaz,
Taking the data from your link; world EV sales in 2019 was about 2 million per year, while global sales are about 100 million vehicles. That makes it 2%.
2019 saw sales drop slightly from 2018 sales.
Sales do seem to have flattened, but one data point does not make a trend.
My next car will probably be electric.
I stand behind my bet, but only George took me up on it. Too late now guys!
How come I don't get an author credit on that article, J?
Just kidding, of course. Thank you for the link.
[...]
fwiw, although one might assume I'm on the "yes, that will happen" part of this particular bet (20% global production by 2037), I'm not sure if I've chatted much of my own private views, and I'm not sure I've really formulated them in an exact way. I also don't think I'm signed up in any clear way for the bet against anyone, so I see myself as just a bet-watcher on this. One key question, I'm not sure if it was clarified for the bet - do plug-in hybrids count as "EVs"?
[....]
My wager was aimed to the world market because it seemed to offer the best chance of coming true. Here in North America, the inertia of the existing infrastructure and old habits will probably keep EV penetration below 10% for many decades to come.I guess we're about 2.5 years into a 20 year bet. It is interesting to contemplate the impact of the virus on the bet. It's hard to say for sure, but I think one point along these lines to make is that if anything it looks like there may be a move "sooner" toward higher percentages of electric vehicles. For one recent example of why I say this:
[...]
When I made the bet last year, nobody had any idea this virus was coming
[....]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlyon/2020/05/28/nissan-to-cut-production-and-close-plants-after-reporting-biggest-loss-in-a-decade/#762d63c6471c
"....As part of the downsizing move, model numbers will be reduced from 69 to less than 55 with production focusing more on electric vehicles like the four-wheel-drive Ariya SUV which is slated for a summer launch. ..."
(Attachment Link)
Kids using a wooden push bicycle to transport wood down to town that they harvested to sell on the road north of Banaue, mountain province, Philippines 2009. (It is a sophisticated device made all from wood - including the wheels - with a few bolts that efficiently converts gravitational potential energy into kinetic energy in a semi-controlled manner.)
...because i would love to get my hands on some wrecked ones and old ones and play with the parts!
jlsoaz The ban on incadescents in the US was repealed by Trump.
LED's didn't become popular until the color was easily chosen. The slightly yellowish color that mimics sunlight, fire and incadescents is popular. High frequency drivers that eliminate unseen flicker also matter.
[...]
In the US, we used to restrict ownership and parking of trucks and SUV like vehicles to people that ran businesses. The vehicle was licensed to the business and parked there at night. There are still commercial class vehicles, but many small business owners use SUV's to operate delivery, home repair and painting businesses and have removable magnetic signs on them so they can be parked at home at night.
SparWeb I am almost retirement age here in the US so I have seen lots of things come and go. When the US Post Office begins buying and using EV's, then that will be enough for me to become a believer. [....]
This is part of the dirty dealing done by oil giants to stop battery powered EV's from being sold: from wikipedia:
"Chevron Patent Encumbrance
Main article: Patent encumbrance of large automotive NiMH batteries
Whether or not Toyota wanted to continue production, it was unlikely to be able to do so because the EV-95 battery was no longer available. Chevron had inherited control of the worldwide patent rights for the NiMH EV-95 battery when it merged with Texaco, which had purchased them from General Motors. Chevron's unit won a US$30,000,000 settlement from Toyota and Panasonic, and the production line for the large NiMH batteries was closed down and dismantled. This case was settled in the ICC International Court of Arbitration, and not publicized due to a gag order placed on Toyota.[19][20] Only smaller NiMH batteries, incapable of powering an electric vehicle or plugging in, were allowed by Chevron-Texaco.[21] "
[...]
You'd think cities, with sewer plants and land fills, could figure out how to be fuel independent.
[....]
I had an interesting conversation with an energy company manager 2 weeks ago at my fathers place. I commented about how all the solar input had actually turned peak demand from the power companies to night and that from their perspective, off peak was day. He said yes and they were looking to revise their rates to reflect exactly that. He said with all the rooftop solar and that from solar farms, the demand on the grid was less as was the demand on the coal and gas power plants. He said they were going to make daytime the cheap time for power and Night time would be more expensive. This is already in the works.
I noted that this would undermine the whole EV position of drive the car to work during the day and charge cheaply at night.
He agreed that the gird was no where near up to the demands of the predicted EV uptake although did not believe the EV predicted numbers either.
He pointed out that the power co were now looking at taking more people offgrid themselves. He said as well as remote properties ( classed as more than 6 Telegraph pole spans from existing lines) being cheaper to put on a solar / battery system with a monthly fee to the power co ( hate to think what that would be!) they were also looking at the same thing for homes in the new estates that were popping up all over the country areas where power had to be brought in from afar,
So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future? Who thinks they're a fad?
Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years
I am willing to take up George on his bet, if we can agree on the winning criteria. 20 years is a pretty safe time frame - enough time for several car model generations to come and go, perhaps a few manufacturer names to come and go too... If a market for EV's is going to establish itself, then in 20 years it should be reaching maturity. If it's a flop, then in 20 years it will still just be nibbling at the margins. So I agree that's a good time frame to judge success/failure.
Next question: What share of the market is "major". And which market do we mean; world, USA, Europe? I want to bet on the world market, here.
To me, 20% of the world market in 20 years sound like success. IMHO: A world economy that can spit out 100 million cars a year and fuel their travel all around, surely can make 20 million EV's and power them as they bumble back and forth.
Who's in for this bet?
Some long-time Fieldlines members may remember the "20/20/20" bet by VolvoFarmer, so for my wager, "20x20=400".
The winner has to be a Fieldlines member 20 years from now, or available to be contacted in 2037 to claim their winnings.
The currency of the winnings should probably be normalized to 400 USD, however, 20 years is a long time to be assuming the US dollar will be a standard currency.
Today, 400 USD has about the same value as 10 grams of gold, so whichever one maintains its value will be the winnings.
TLDR:
Electric Vehicles are currently experiencing exponential growth in most markets that I have read about. This growth comes from many things:
- pent-up demand (consumers waiting for the product and will not purchase anything else)
- incentives (all those tax rebates)
- basic cost (the typical EV is getting cheaper)
- scaled cost (mass production makes EV's cheaper still)
The EV sales growth rate at 50% per year we hear about is unsustainable; that's just what the cherry-pickers use for news headlines. In some places it happens, other places it isn't. But a world-wide growth of 5% is not enough for EV's to fulfill anybody's promises. For EV's to play a big role in road transportation worldwide, then they have to actually reach a major portion of vehicle sales annually. Currently they are a small fraction of it; only about 1% of all auto sales in North America. I couldn't give you numbers for the rest of the world, but somebody can.
If EV sales were to grow to 20% of US/Canada sales, then we would need 19% exponential growth rate in both countries. That's pretty fast. For comparison, Ford underwent a 50% growth rate (replacing the horse-drawn carriage with Model T's) but only sustained that growth for 15 years. Then it crashed - everything else crashed - and then there were 2 world wars and a depression... When the 20th century settled down, the US auto industry was already "mature" and growth was linear after that.
Growth rates are funny mathematical problems. Linear rates of growth add up every year and can be sustained for a very long time, but an underdog that chooses this strategy will be an underdog forever. Exponential growth is much faster and is able to change a market in just a few years - but it cannot last long before it crashes. Usually the forces that make a growth rate exponential don't allow it to switch over to linear, making the crash inevitable. This shows up everywhere in economics and ecology.
There's no reason to believe the exponential growth of EV sales should end soon, but by definition it will end. Where will it level off? Good question!
If it levels off in 20 years, then the only way for EV's to accomplish a major portion of the market is if they sustain a 20% growth in sales for the ENTIRE 20-year period without hitting the growth wall.
Again, gotta ground this in reality: world auto production is about 100 million per year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production)
So 20% of that is 20 million EV's per year. BUT - world auto production is growing at 3% per year. That means in 20 years the world could be producing 180 million cars, so a 20% EV market becomes 36 million EV's per year.
Are there enough resources in the world to sustain this amount of production? I believe so. There's been a lot of talk of "peak material X" like "peak oil" but I don't actually believe it. You don't have to worship capitalism to see that when one resource becomes scarce, inventiveness finds a way to do the job with another. There is so much diversity in EV's now that the fundamental resources needed to make millions of EV's will be a buffet table of choices. So I don't believe there will be a "crash" in EV sales driven by materials availability.
The power to drive all these EV's around sounds like an obstacle, but it isn't. The world already generates enormous amounts of energy. The charging of EV's if they grow to 20% of the autos in the world will remain a fragment. Electricity is the most efficient means of transferring energy from source to use ever invented by mankind, and the more we invest in electric technology the higher our standard of living will be overall. More EV's implies that less fossil fuel will be burned, hence less fossil fuel mined and transported, which frees up human labour and equipment for other pursuits, such as the generation of electricity.
I have already expressed my personal opinions about the ideal source of electricity. Carefully setting aside ALL emotional responses I will simply state that the world has enough resources to power all of human civilization with certain types of energy technology that are available now, for a thousand years. The volume and volatility of the waste is also a matter that current technology can handle.
Coming back to the EV's, then, the power to charge them all is an incremental change to an existing grid that we already have. So here, I also feel that the ability to power them will not be the cause of a sales crash either.
Having eliminated the two main obstacles to widespread EV sales, in my mind, then I can only grasp here and there to find other reasons why somehow they cannot sustain a growth rate or cannot allow the sales to level off gradually rather than crash.
A few remote possibilities that could affect EV popularity, plus or minus:
- urbanization - most people live in cities, and the world is concentrating more and more in cities
- urban/rural divide - city dwellers will not see limited range as an obstacle, but rural people who have long distances to drive do
- commercial use - businesses already are seeing reduced costs using EV's as delivery vehicles, taxis, municipal services, etc.
- automation - The EV is, in principle, slightly easier to automate than fuelled vehicles
- size - to make a heavy-hauler run on electricity is much harder than family vehicles
- freight carriage by road - this industry is growing rapidly, but trucking is not friendly to electric traction
- freight carriage by rail - also growing rapidly; many trains in North America are already "hybrids" (diesel-electric) or some sort of tram
- aviation - few believe that a practical electric aircraft can be made, even with advancement of current technology
Not much left to say. Despite all the effort I've put into explaining my position, I feel like I'm stating the obvious, here.
jlsoaz,
Thanks for the update!
I am not having any luck finding anyone to bet against me on this one.
Well the Federal EV report has been leaked over the pond here and the govt has said NO subsidies will be given on new EV's and charging stations will be a business expense NOT the govt's.
Here in the Adelaide Hills everytime theres a storm towns lose their power sometimes for over a day. Over 20 years ago here the grid was leased for 99 years to a HongKong billionaire and since then no major infrastructure has been done. Power lines are a major cause of bushfires yet this govt won't mandate power lines be put underground to eliminate the bush fire risk.
Last election Labor went forward and sprouted EV's where the loony lnp got on the band wagon saying every tradie would lose their hilux.
So elsewhere in the world EV's may be the new thing but over the pond here we are being left behind in a big way
. that conversation doesn't seem to take place very often these days, in analyst circles.
I used to hear more about home-made or small-shop-made biofuels
Quote. that conversation doesn't seem to take place very often these days, in analyst circles.
I don't know what the analysts say, but conversion from one fuel to another is a "niche" and very rare. Consider the likelihood that a typical auto owner does their own maintenance any more, and compare that to the much higher effort/risk/cost to convert an engine to an alternative fuel. The most flexible type (diesel) is very unpopular and very rare in North America and already becoming much less common in Europe - soon to be banned in many places. This addresses the largest current markets, but ignores the growth markets which promise to be even larger. My read on fuel conversions is they are common only when economically forced upon people through economic deprivation. Heaven forbid that condition ever exists in North America or Europe.
I do seriously entertain the idea of converting my car - but in my case from gasoline to electric. I would never consider a diesel/biodiesel conversion, because I have such an attractive alternative (electric). I've looked at some biodiesel conversions and they "have issues".QuoteI used to hear more about home-made or small-shop-made biofuels
Yes, me too. Again, I think the disappearance of diesel cars is driving this down.
Synthetic Fuel Said To Be As Clean As EVs
I agree. I think the headline and the gist of that claim is not useful. However, the article, and the development, provides me with a toe-hold to make a point that in my view badly needs making, which is that the underlying effort is going to get made. Now, whether it will have any real meaning and impact, I don't know.QuoteSynthetic Fuel Said To Be As Clean As EVs
In my head, I always complete phrases like that with "...when the grid is supplied by coal."
Unfairly, I admin. I haven't checked the details in the article.
Nor do I plan to, since it's actually no more than 8 sentences long, and I normally stay away from marketing stuff like that.
the heated steering wheel! LOL That and the butt warmer are a MUST on a cold day.
There remains one item that Chris O put up back a few years ago, when the Green push was going hot-n-heavy and a lot of people did not have their thinking caps on .
Until they can shove the same amount of stored energy into a battery pack that is in one gal (3.8L)of Petrol , electric will not be able become the norm.
I drive a Hybrid, I like to mileage it gets both city and Highway, but some of the distances I drive are still out of range for an all electric.
Even if there were plugins every 200(+-)miles the time it takes would extend my trip times way too much.
Even if I have to complete the transformation from Petrol to pure alky my hybrid is E-85 compatible, I can still easily exceed a battery packs range.
I do hope that in the near future this changes.
Bruce S
jlsoaz;
I try to stay up on the current distances of the "affordable" EVs, BEVs and Hybrids.
However, until they can meet the distances and ease of refueling along with pricing, just aren't going to have people jumping on the bandwagon.
I look forward to seeing them reach the ranges, hopefully before I wear out my Hybrid ;D.
Cheers
Bruce S
My take - I'm no chemist - is that trying to manufacture a chemical fuel from "some other" process is just pushing resources around until you can't find them. Which works for a while... but it's just a shell game. They turn up in somebody's backyard eventually. Atmospheric carbon capture, biodiesel, gas distillates, even hydrogen, they all just move the chemical energy cost that you can take from nature or hide on somebody else's balance sheet.
Quote from: SparwebMy take - I'm no chemist - is that trying to manufacture a chemical fuel from "some other" process is just pushing resources around until you can't find them. Which works for a while... but it's just a shell game. They turn up in somebody's backyard eventually. Atmospheric carbon capture, biodiesel, gas distillates, even hydrogen, they all just move the chemical energy cost that you can take from nature or hide on somebody else's balance sheet.
Speaking of balance sheets I have already passed the Advanced Level Specialist L1 theres another specialist test just for the EV's it costs about $4000 for the study materials and training. The first one I start out with is about $900, without proper training you don't know what your talking about, sucks I know...
-edit-
Unless there's an OEM around. There are also those who are studying this in University
(in the fallible view of the speaker)
Pretty good article relevant to some of the debate/discussion that led to the starting of this thread:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/even-tesla-can-t-overcome-australian-hostility-to-electric-cars
Even Tesla Can't Overcome Australian Hostility to Electric Cars
22 hours ago —
Pretty good article relevant to some of the debate/discussion that led to the starting of this thread:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/even-tesla-can-t-overcome-australian-hostility-to-electric-cars
Even Tesla Can't Overcome Australian Hostility to Electric Cars
22 hours ago —
What I got from that article is lack of government subsidies... New tech should stand on its own n my opinion. Sink or swim on the consumer market. AU also has the same long distance driving issues the USA has... and limited charging out in rural areas.
EV's remain polluters as long as a large part of the electricity use comes from coal, and China just put BUNCH of new coal plants online as did India.
Lack of Utility scale batteries make renewable's a drop in the bucket as far as energy production, we do not have the technology yet to make it practical(this includes being affordable!) Nukes are semi clean other than waste storage and that is the issue that will kill them soon. Some promise showing in fusion, glimmers of a breakthrough design coming but it is still 20+ years off in the future for large scale utility use.
Until this hurdle is overcome a battery car is just an ego machine that pushes the pollution out of sight... and some of the rare metals and rare earths used in them are mined by slave labor, kids in Africa mining cobalt is a prime example, rare earths from China are mined with what amounts to slave labor...
Hi - It's seemingly a valid concern to look at the various environmental points you raise, but your treatment of those points seem a bit broad-brush/dismissive. As to Carbon and local air pollution specifically, some (but perhaps not all) policy-makers around the world have awakened to the fact that, as the grid and residential generation are cleaned up over the next decade or two, carbon dioxide emissions attributable to EVS go well below that of ICVs, as one might expect. Yes, it's a problem when someone puts a bunch of new coal plants online, but that doesn't quite tell the whole story, does it?
I think I may have posted the information about Astongate here, recently, and I mention that here because rather than turning this into some giant time-consuming debate about how much EVs do and do not pollute, now and decades from now (and the answers will be very different then), I think it's useful to acknowledge that this has historically been (for decades) a hot-button issue, and that the well of discussion has periodically been poisoned by veiled bad information that ends up consuming thousands of person-hours of time of all concerned, to sort out (even to this day, as with Astongate) but that in the end, even if one doesn't agree on this or that, I think it's useful (for all concerned) to put a stake in the ground and note where a particular issue is a hot button issue.
As to a BEV just being an "ego machine", that seems a bit much. If you haven't done so already (and for all I know you have driven one for years now), I encourage that you give one of the good ones a try. I had my first test drives around 1999, through both friends and a rental agency, just really to get to know them better. I was always glad I took that initiative to learn more, even if at the time there was no way I could afford one. I started driving them for my day to day transport around 2012, and two of the features I strongly prefer in them are acceleration from stop and low noise, vibration and harshness. Those two features are a decent part of the reason I am driving one now, along with other environmental, political and some work/economic reasons that are more specific to my situation. As to money, it is costing me quite a bit, though a fair amount of that is that the used marketplace has not matured yet. Still, hidden within my financial losses are one or two smaller financial positives, such as brewing most of my own fuel at home (through my solar panels), some free on the road fuel (I managed to get a Tesla with free supercharging for life, so far), and some reduced maintenance costs so far.
There are also some noteworthy drawbacks, though they seem to be less and less with each successive used EV I get (as the automakers get their act together). They still include that I am way out of my league financially on the overall payments I am making, concern about post-warranty support and expense when that comes up in a few years, lost time charging on the road as the range of the old vehicle I was able to afford is only a couple of hundred miles, the segment of the vehicle I happened to get is not close to what I really want because of the ultra-limited supply of good used BEV choices, etc. I also had two or three *really* annoying and time consuming issues with the vehicle that involved taking it to a service center, and those ended up as repairs under warranty, though they have been ironed out. I've also had a few digital glitches that I dislike enough to mention. This isn't specific to the EV powertrain aspect, but kind of relates to the broader evolution of some of the offerings of the vehicle makers, so mentioning.EV's remain polluters as long as a large part of the electricity use comes from coal, and China just put BUNCH of new coal plants online as did India.
Lack of Utility scale batteries make renewable's a drop in the bucket as far as energy production, we do not have the technology yet to make it practical(this includes being affordable!) Nukes are semi clean other than waste storage and that is the issue that will kill them soon. Some promise showing in fusion, glimmers of a breakthrough design coming but it is still 20+ years off in the future for large scale utility use.
Until this hurdle is overcome a battery car is just an ego machine that pushes the pollution out of sight... and some of the rare metals and rare earths used in them are mined by slave labor, kids in Africa mining cobalt is a prime example, rare earths from China are mined with what amounts to slave labor...
SparWeb I don't see what Texas did wrong except not winterize things better. Who are they going to tie to? West Texas is a whole lot of empty high plains for hundreds of miles. To the east and north those states needed the power at the same time.
I exactly don't agree with this.
Nuclear is not even an option any more. We made electricity with it as an excuse to justify the manufacture of nuclear weapons "Hey look nuclear can be used for good, too." But the current fuel cycle is not closed or even very efficient. India has been trying to make thorium breeders work, but they get no help from the West.
I exactly don't agree with this.
Nuclear is not even an option any more. We made electricity with it as an excuse to justify the manufacture of nuclear weapons "Hey look nuclear can be used for good, too." But the current fuel cycle is not closed or even very efficient. India has been trying to make thorium breeders work, but they get no help from the West.
While in the past it was as true as the day is long. However , with the newer GenIII types and beyond; Nuclear becomes a very good and viable option to switch away from Coal.
Let us not forget that the byproduct of Coal is fly ash Which itself is radioactive.
Our local transit is constantly trying alternative solutions ( CNG, Bio-diesel,etc). I like this approach! Not keeping ones eggs in a single basket is not only good business, but also good in practice.
One of the very reasons I never stopped producing Alky, there are studies hither and yan stating both ways of how great it is to how destructive it is.
Bruce S
[....]
No charging stations out here, extreme cold to deal with in winter, COST! My 2017 Escape cost me $21k, I don't drive enough to make battery pay off either3k-5k miles a year max. Most trips are ~60 miles but there are 400 mile round trips across the middle of nowhere MN with zero charging stations to make it not feasible. I would have to go way out of my way to hit a charging station on long trips.
Bruce,
It's fine. I guess comparing nuclear reactor types is getting pretty far from the topic of EV's - but Mary raised it with a combination of other things, as reasons that EV's might be not so green as the hype. It doesn't matter if I agree or disagree with what she said in some places. I do agree that the subject of this thread is the broad acceptance of EV's. That is affected by the makeup of our energy distribution network. Thanks for asking Bruce, but when the topic starts out really broad, it's hard to pull it off-topic!
Once our server(s) migration(s) is/are stable I may post up in a more appropriate area "The PUB" maybe.
Quote from: BruceOnce our server(s) migration(s) is/are stable I may post up in a more appropriate area "The PUB" maybe.
Just as a side note we scraped the program with the dedicated server, as we entered the process there were to many pitfalls. we are running on old reliable as we have done for years. Were solid and are complete with any server work. Its funny because if we wouldn't have been redundant approach we would crashed by now. Techadmin and I are are off to other projects and fieldlines is optimized and were up and are in good shape. All needed things are done. Were paid up for our hosting for three years.
Quote from: BruceOnce our server(s) migration(s) is/are stable I may post up in a more appropriate area "The PUB" maybe.
Just as a side note we....
Mary B;
MY pie-eye view is that Internal combustion will continue to evolve back to where it was in the early decades where they can once again use different blends.
Your vehicle can burn E85 with noting more than a "chip" change.
I upgraded our 2007 V6 Van to be able to bun it with a mere $600USD install of a sensing unit.
Hydrocarbon fuels still carry a boat load of energy.
Bruce S
Nice chat from the US Presedent early hours of this morning.
Seems he has been reading this topic and wants to install a better electricity infrastructure to support all those electric cars and he says he is going to install loads of EV charging stations.
Vantage Pro is pretty good - most components are replaceable as they break (and they will). I think I have done half a dozen repairs since I put mine up in 2012. Since a Wx station is a bunch of sensitive sensors out in the worst of the elements, I can forgive some breakdowns. I'd like to know if the cheaper ones are even more likely to break down. Would I have given up by now...
I see your data dropped out from your first outage from the 20th to the 23rd. Do you find that your datalink needs a lot of hands-on to get it rebooted? I often have to power it down (batteries out, unplug, count to 30, stand on one foot) to get it to start up properly after some outages.
Do you see the "galloping" wires syndrome on the power lines out there?
Heinlein's book "Friday". They have shipstones powering everything, a form of power generation/storage that lasts for many many years... that is what we need. A breakthrough in battery storage to sock away power when it is available and release it when the grid needs it. Current battery tech is not up to the task.That's the other BOOK!! I knew I'd read it somewhere else besides the original Buck Rodgers in the 25th Century and Asimov's Analog Science mags!!
Now an enclosed 3 wheeler with enough cargo capacity to do one of my 2 week town runs... that I might consider. Keep the SUV for winter use...
Now an enclosed 3 wheeler with enough cargo capacity to do one of my 2 week town runs... that I might consider. Keep the SUV for winter use...
There are some interesting things going on in this area. I have never been in any of these, but just to take a few minutes to summarize my thoughts:
- Regarding the three-wheelers EVs, these two seem to come up a fair amount, in part because they are both public listed companies in the US:
https://www.arcimoto.com/
https://electrameccanica.com
Both of these are from the US Pacific Northwest/Canada Pacific Southwest area, though I don't know if that ensures they can handle your climate. Top speeds if I recall are in the 80 mph range, so they are not just low speed machines.
- There's a four-wheeler single-seater, also in the US Pacific Northwest, also decent highway speeds, that was invented 15 or 20 or 30 years ago or so, and the purpose was interestingly not to create an EV, but to address traffic congestion issues. Somehow though it has missed out on the US public listing and investment in EVs boom, and as far as I know is not doing too much to make vehicles, and if you did want one I'm guessing it would be expensive. Still, I have always liked what little I know of their proposed product. They are here:
http://www.commutercars.com/
There are a couple more I know of that I'm not big fans of, for reasons of safety or other concerns.
So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future? Who thinks they're a fad?
Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years
I am willing to take up George on his bet, if we can agree on the winning criteria. 20 years is a pretty safe time frame - enough time for several car model generations to come and go, perhaps a few manufacturer names to come and go too... If a market for EV's is going to establish itself, then in 20 years it should be reaching maturity. If it's a flop, then in 20 years it will still just be nibbling at the margins. So I agree that's a good time frame to judge success/failure.
[...]
I wonder if an electric motor would pair well with a 5 speed.
Could be interesting for sure. But that Camaro conversion that snapped the frame in a drag race made me leary.
The boat conversions, especially party boats with solar, are more straight forward.
Here i see charging stations everywhere you would need them and no electric cars.
I can't really explain why, but i love the idea of an electric retrofit in some old car. I really like the simplicity of an electric motor and batteries. I think if you could retrofit a decent old chassis for say $10 000, even if it didn't have a long range, people might do it for a commuter car. I would definitely do it. I'm usually pretty out of touch with the main population though.
I did some quick research, and electric cars are getting from 14kwh/100km to 30kwh/100km. I'm starting to think that with a bit bigger solar array and bit higher output turbine, we may have the power for it. We do maybe 200km a week so 4 to 8 kwh per day. That doesn't sound so bad to me.
I like a stick shift. I wonder if an electric motor would pair well with a 5 speed.
So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future? Who thinks they're a fad?
Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years
[...]
LOL
What's their reason for the blackouts now, Mary?
Actually if your utility company is still rebuilding after the storms last month, then it sounds like they're still running something on backups and baling wire.
I had several blackouts here due to wind storms.
jlsoaz,
You've made me notice something that I didn't think of when making by bet. I'm not sure I can trace back the same statistics that I used during my research before placing the bet. And even if I can (I know I used Wikipedia for some of it) there's no guarantee that the page will still contain the same information 20 years later, or have info using the same basis. All sorts of things could change.
I can confirm that I really meant "passenger automobiles".
I was also not considering motorcycles or 3-wheelers either.
The stats I consulted did not distinguish between hybrid or pure EV's, then.
Maybe in a decade or so, if they're popular enough, we make a distinction in the statistics (any sufficiently large group will be sub-divided by a statistician; it's a law).
But the stats didn't start out that way.
That should help pin down the winning criteria when 2037 comes to an end.
Some food for thought:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/06/the-driving-enthusiasts-dilemma-about-electric-cars/
Today there is a used 2019 Nissan Leaf on a used-car dealer's lot nearby for 37k CAD (28k USD). Which is ridiculous because that's the NEW price.
I've heard that used auto prices are excessively high these days, including EV's because of long delivery times from the factories.
May be great for some used EV owners who are willing to sell. But if they can't buy a new EV, that means they are going BACK to a ICE vehicle.
<sound of forehead slapping>
Geez, I sound like a lunatic off grid hippie ;DWhat, like we invite that kind of comment around here!?
but if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use
Mary,Quotebut if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use
https://aptera.us/
Oh-
wait...
25k USD!!!!!!!
(Attachment Link)
I am inline for one of those Aptera 3-wheelers ;D. Went so far as to put down a deposit too.Mary,Quotebut if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use
https://aptera.us/
Oh-
wait...
25k USD!!!!!!!
(Attachment Link)
Started out affordable then rapidly got out of control expensive because they made it luxury inside. I can get by without AC, only need an am/fm radio that is basic to feed 2 speakers, a comfortable seat is a must but plenty of aftermarket racing seats that fit that bill.
I keep looking at those cheap 3 wheel 150cc scooters that can do 60mph. How can I add a cab to this thing to make it rainy day useful? Just keep the rain off s I am not soggy when I arrive. https://www.360powersports.com/ice-bear-zodiac-pst300-19-300cc-trike-automatic-with-reverse/
Living in MN an EV isn't very useful in winter...
but if someone came out with a small 3 wheeler with a cab and a price tag under $4k that can do hwy speeds and had 150 mile range I would consider it for spring-fall use for those trips to town where it is just myself. Would prefer a cargo space that is enclosed and could hold 2 weeks worth of groceries without doing contortions to get to it...
Until they figure out how to heat the cab at -20f in a 30mph wind an EV is useless for me in winter. I have an aversion to frostbite driving to town. Guy I know bought a Tesla and he swears at it in winter, he went so far as to put a small propane heater in the passenger seat to try and stay warm. He lives up north where he deals with -40f(also -40c!) a few times a winter...
jlsoaz,
You've made me notice something that I didn't think of when making by bet. I'm not sure I can trace back the same statistics that I used during my research before placing the bet. And even if I can (I know I used Wikipedia for some of it) there's no guarantee that the page will still contain the same information 20 years later, or have info using the same basis. All sorts of things could change.
I can confirm that I really meant "passenger automobiles".
I was also not considering motorcycles or 3-wheelers either.
The stats I consulted did not distinguish between hybrid or pure EV's, then.
Maybe in a decade or so, if they're popular enough, we make a distinction in the statistics (any sufficiently large group will be sub-divided by a statistician; it's a law).
But the stats didn't start out that way.
That should help pin down the winning criteria when 2037 comes to an end.
Some food for thought:
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/06/the-driving-enthusiasts-dilemma-about-electric-cars/
Today there is a used 2019 Nissan Leaf on a used-car dealer's lot nearby for 37k CAD (28k USD). Which is ridiculous because that's the NEW price.
I've heard that used auto prices are excessively high these days, including EV's because of long delivery times from the factories.
May be great for some used EV owners who are willing to sell. But if they can't buy a new EV, that means they are going BACK to a ICE vehicle.
<sound of forehead slapping>
Woah, 317 ft-lb. That would do a number on the transmission if you bolted it to your grandmother's Taurus. [heh]
If you are converting a gasoline car, then take the car's stock gasoline engine power and torque curves as the starting point to match up a suitable electric motor.
For a small sedan with a 4-cylinder engine that's going to be about 150 to 200 ft-pounds. Best not to go past that, or you could ruin the old tranny.
This would do:
https://www.evwest.com/catalog/product_info.php?cPath=8&products_id=482&osCsid=l27a9nhdal3b4cu9mukh7srev5
Comparing electric motor specs to gas engines is deceptive. The torque from an electric motor is at its peak at ZERO RPM and drops off as it spins up. That leaves you doing the math and finding that "huh it doesn't have much power" and you're sort-of right, because at 4000 RPM the torque is less than half of its peak. Compare that to a gasoline engine when it's at 4000 RPM. Its torque is at the peak, so you calculate twice as much power. Well, that's true enough, but for all the time you spend NOT driving like you're on a racetrack, annoying your passengers, you don't drive like that. Even if you down-shift to get the engine to 4000 RPM before you speed up, you probably don't floor it, which is the only way to get the engine to produce rated torque. So most of the time people drive nowhere near the edges of their car's performance envelope.
I totally understand this thinking. Plenty of life left in lots of older cars that sell for nothing. There is definitley an environmental argument to be made for running older cars, doing good maintenance and keeping them going for more miles. After all, it takes a lot of energy to build a new car and recycle an old one.
An EV fits our mission pretty perfectly though. Just talk some suckers in to buying them so there will ve some used ones on the market soon.
Our daily driver is a 2003 VW Passat. It gets decent mileage, is fun to drive with a 5 speed, and looks good for the age. I paid about $2000 for it 5 years ago. It has been very reliable. We also have 3 kids, and they fit in the back seat ok. Better now that the oldest is not in a car seat.
They are starting to report that depreciation on an EV is pretty high. Car prices were downright stupid with covid so I have waited. I've been wanting to get one just for my camp I live at for 5 months. It would be impossible to drive an EV from home to camp. I'm off grid and my purpose is opposite of everyone else. I am maxed out at 3K of panels and those are under trees. My town has charging stations everywhere. It is far hotter than I remember and I want AC at the camp. Problem solved, use the car battery and drive to get it recharged everyday.It might be due to the stupid prices for new cars/trucks these days, but I'm not seeing the prices for hybrids drop. I watch them kinda close. The Prius now has side markets where you can add a full 2nd battery pack and tap off it for "other uses".
People can't seem to get their head wrapped around that idea.Yes, for you and me it's obvious. For folks who live in high-rise apartments, not so obvious.