OK, then, a bit of good news; I did a cross-section profile and velocity study, and found the stable wet-weather resource to be just under 16 cubic feet per second, or around 7000 gpm. I see this creek running like this often, and it gives me pause for consideration regarding the actual wheel design.
I realize (I think) that the bucket size and shape (Poncelet) works within a fairly narrow flow range, like, if it's too big for the available water, it'll really lose efficiency. Conversely, it needs to be big enough to handle this wet-weather flow potential and not let it go to waste. After watching these guys and their gate approach
http://www.waterwheelfactory.com/Hester.htmI come away with the distinct feeling that I can make a wheel with a bucket that has a partition in it, and the flow can be valved / directed to one side, or the other, or both, depending on the creek level. I ran the numbers and 5000 gpm down 3' will net a cool 1.2 kW after losses. Now that's something to splash around about, I would think.
Here's a pic of three turtle island submerged after a 2" rain. This gave me a sense of where to place the wheel to avoid damage. The study was done with the creek running stable and clear, about 2' lower than shown here.
I wonder, am I all wet?
Turtle