Author Topic: EV Market, 20-Year Bet  (Read 925 times)

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SparWeb

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EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« on: December 28, 2017, 04:23:00 PM »
So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future?  Who thinks they're a fad?

Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years

I am willing to take up George on his bet, if we can agree on the winning criteria.  20 years is a pretty safe time frame - enough time for several car model generations to come and go, perhaps a few manufacturer names to come and go too...  If a market for EV's is going to establish itself, then in 20 years it should be reaching maturity.  If it's a flop, then in 20 years it will still just be nibbling at the margins.  So I agree that's a good time frame to judge success/failure. 

Next question: What share of the market is "major".  And which market do we mean; world, USA, Europe?  I want to bet on the world market, here.
To me, 20% of the world market in 20 years sound like success.  IMHO: A world economy that can spit out 100 million cars a year and fuel their travel all around, surely can make 20 million EV's and power them as they bumble back and forth.

Who's in for this bet?

Some long-time Fieldlines members may remember the "20/20/20" bet by VolvoFarmer, so for my wager, "20x20=400". 
The winner has to be a Fieldlines member 20 years from now, or available to be contacted in 2037 to claim their winnings.
The currency of the winnings should probably be normalized to 400 USD, however, 20 years is a long time to be assuming the US dollar will be a standard currency. 
Today, 400 USD has about the same value as 10 grams of gold, so whichever one maintains its value will be the winnings.

TLDR:

Electric Vehicles are currently experiencing exponential growth in most markets that I have read about.  This growth comes from many things:
  • pent-up demand (consumers waiting for the product and will not purchase anything else)
  • incentives (all those tax rebates)
  • basic cost (the typical EV is getting cheaper)
  • scaled cost (mass production makes EV's cheaper still)

The EV sales growth rate at 50% per year we hear about is unsustainable; that's just what the cherry-pickers use for news headlines.  In some places it happens, other places it isn't.  But a world-wide growth of 5% is not enough for EV's to fulfill anybody's promises.  For EV's to play a big role in road transportation worldwide, then they have to actually reach a major portion of vehicle sales annually.  Currently they are a small fraction of it; only about 1% of all auto sales in North America.  I couldn't give you numbers for the rest of the world, but somebody can.

If EV sales were to grow to 20% of US/Canada sales, then we would need 19% exponential growth rate in both countries.  That's pretty fast.  For comparison, Ford underwent a 50% growth rate (replacing the horse-drawn carriage with Model T's) but only sustained that growth for 15 years.  Then it crashed - everything else crashed - and then there were 2 world wars and a depression...   When the 20th century settled down, the US auto industry was already "mature" and growth was linear after that.

Growth rates are funny mathematical problems.  Linear rates of growth add up every year and can be sustained for a very long time, but an underdog that chooses this strategy will be an underdog forever.  Exponential growth is much faster and is able to change a market in just a few years - but it cannot last long before it crashes.  Usually the forces that make a growth rate exponential don't allow it to switch over to linear, making the crash inevitable.  This shows up everywhere in economics and ecology.

There's no reason to believe the exponential growth of EV sales should end soon, but by definition it will end.  Where will it level off?  Good question!
If it levels off in 20 years, then the only way for EV's to accomplish a major portion of the market is if they sustain a 20% growth in sales for the ENTIRE 20-year period without hitting the growth wall.

Again, gotta ground this in reality: world auto production is about 100 million per year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production
So 20% of that is 20 million EV's per year.  BUT - world auto production is growing at 3% per year.  That means in 20 years the world could be producing 180 million cars, so a 20% EV market becomes 36 million EV's per year.

Are there enough resources in the world to sustain this amount of production?  I believe so.  There's been a lot of talk of "peak material X" like "peak oil" but I don't actually believe it.  You don't have to worship capitalism to see that when one resource becomes scarce, inventiveness finds a way to do the job with another.  There is so much diversity in EV's now that the fundamental resources needed to make millions of EV's will be a buffet table of choices.  So I don't believe there will be a "crash" in EV sales driven by materials availability. 

The power to drive all these EV's around sounds like an obstacle, but it isn't.  The world already generates enormous amounts of energy.  The charging of EV's if they grow to 20% of the autos in the world will remain a fragment.  Electricity is the most efficient means of transferring energy from source to use ever invented by mankind, and the more we invest in electric technology the higher our standard of living will be overall.  More EV's implies that less fossil fuel will be burned, hence less fossil fuel mined and transported, which frees up human labour and equipment for other pursuits, such as the generation of electricity.

I have already expressed my personal opinions about the ideal source of electricity. Carefully setting aside ALL emotional responses I will simply state that the world has enough resources to power all of human civilization with certain types of energy technology that are available now, for a thousand years. The volume and volatility of the waste is also a matter that current technology can handle.

Coming back to the EV's, then, the power to charge them all is an incremental change to an existing grid that we already have.  So here, I also feel that the ability to power them will not be the cause of a sales crash either.

Having eliminated the two main obstacles to widespread EV sales, in my mind, then I can only grasp here and there to find other reasons why somehow they cannot sustain a growth rate or cannot allow the sales to level off gradually rather than crash.

A few remote possibilities that could affect EV popularity, plus or minus:
  • urbanization - most people live in cities, and the world is concentrating more and more in cities
  • urban/rural divide - city dwellers will not see limited range as an obstacle, but rural people who have long distances to drive do
  • commercial use - businesses already are seeing reduced costs using EV's as delivery vehicles, taxis, municipal services, etc.
  • automation - The EV is, in principle, slightly easier to automate than fuelled vehicles
  • size - to make a heavy-hauler run on electricity is much harder than family vehicles
  • freight carriage by road - this industry is growing rapidly, but trucking is not friendly to electric traction
  • freight carriage by rail - also growing rapidly; many trains in North America are already "hybrids" (diesel-electric) or some sort of tram
  • aviation - few believe that a practical electric aircraft can be made, even with advancement of current technology

Not much left to say.  Despite all the effort I've put into explaining my position, I feel like I'm stating the obvious, here.
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it.  Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.

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paara

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2017, 10:27:24 PM »
In Norway, where I live, electric veicles make up over 20% of new car sales already (pure electric cars). In september -17 it was 29%. If you include hybrid/chargable or not. It is over 50%. So I hope it wont take 20years.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 04:53:51 AM by paara »

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2017, 02:22:14 AM »

What I said was :

Quote
Anyone want to make some bets that EV's in 20 years will still be a minor player in the personal and business transport market?

The bet proposed here is that 80% of Vehicles in 20 Years will still be IC.
I'll take that bet but I WILL NOT  turn that into a load of BS that Ev's are a Major amount of vehicles  at 20% because clearly, they will not be in that scenario.

20% to me, especially in 20 years time with all the hype and hysteria we are being subjected to now from those always looking to champion a miracle, IS still A MINOR amount.

It's a 2 Horse race, EV or IC. There is nothing else atm . Anyone can see that major has to be 50%+
In any case, the 20% EV in 20 years would translate to 80% STILL being IC. 
I don't have a problem with that bet and will definitely take it.
A rule of the game will have to be though that the "major" classification will have to be OVER 50%,  20% is NOT major in anyone's maths unless you want to kid yourself and try and insult everyone elses intelligence.

As I'm sure a realistic and obvious standard will not be suitable for the Green/ Ev washed, The way I see it, there are 2 bets here:

What percentage of the car market ( production/ sales) will EV's be in 20 years?
OR
How long before Ev's ARE a major ( 50%+) influence in the market?.

Pretty sure with the 2nd one I won't live to 100 which is what one would have to be reasonably confident of to see this one out.
Even in that time frame, I'm pretty confident in another 50 years the dominant technology will be nothing even discussed right now.

Anyway, 80% of vehicles still being IC in 20 years, I'll put $4k on that.
Calling 20% of the fleet being Ev's a major or not minor, yeah right!

  ::)

SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2017, 09:52:38 AM »
Hi George,
Agreed, it's hard to pick a target, not two, three, or more which just confuses the matter.  So I picked one.
And I figured this was at least 1 thing we could agree on.

Hello Paara,
Sounds great in Norway, and the other news coming from Europe is pretty positive, too.
Which vehicles have been the most popular?
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it.  Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.

System spec: 135w BP multicrystalline panels, regulated by Xantrex C40, DIY 8ft diameter wind turbine, regulated by Tri-Star TS60, 800AH x 24V AGM Battery, Xantrex SW4024

Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2017, 10:34:34 AM »
So,,
When you say EV's , how many Wheels? 2,34, or more? Land only?

If there's gonna be a bet that needs to last 20 years, then all the bases need to be covered.
There maybe some who think I'm being sarcastic with these questions.
I am not.

Bruce S
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SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2017, 11:42:52 AM »
Good question.
When writing my first outline, I decided not to dig into that - it was getting pretty long already.
I'm thinking of all personal transportation and commercial transportation by road.
Some of my stats come from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production
using a definition of motor vehicle as:
Quote
passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, minibuses, trucks, buses and coaches.
which comes from this source: http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2016-statistics/

This definition stays out of heavy trucking and that suits my needs because most of the mass of the vehicle is in the goods being transported.
This matters a lot because applications of electric traction are best in vehicles that don't carry much cargo, travel very far, or need high speeds.
Heavy trucks all do exactly the opposite.  I don't pretend to know how trucking will change in 20 years.  So it has nothing to do with the bet.
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it.  Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.

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Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2017, 01:46:03 PM »
SparWeb;
Understood, I try to keep responses from getting too deep.

My reasons for asking about the wheeled part is multi-fold. Having had great luck in traveling in my past life, I've had the chances to see a great number of 2 & 3-wheeled vehicles.
I know and understand mass-transist usually means 4-wheeled , but even here in the middle of the USA, we're seeing more and more 2 & 3-wheeled vehicles.
As many may know from my very early posts about our daughter's e-bike (48Vdc 550watter) , this is still a very nice e-bike and our city considers it an urban vehicle allowed on all roads except highways. Plus there's the 3-wheeled EVs that I'm seeing across a lot of the states I still visit.
There's even an annual event where the EV trikes trek across IOWA.

Cheers
Bruce S
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paara

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2017, 02:41:43 PM »
.....

Hello Paara,
Sounds great in Norway, and the other news coming from Europe is pretty positive, too.
Which vehicles have been the most popular?
5 most popular EV:
1 Nissan LEAF
2 Volkswagen e-Golf
3 Tesla Model S
4 BMW i3
5 Kia Soul Electric

jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2017, 08:30:10 PM »
5 most popular EV:
1 Nissan LEAF
2 Volkswagen e-Golf
3 Tesla Model S
4 BMW i3
5 Kia Soul Electric

Hi - are any PHEVs selling well in Norway or is it all BEVs?  How about the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV?

SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2017, 09:06:23 PM »
Bruce,
Indeed they are growing in popularity.  I see many trikes on the road these days - but I also know that most of them are not EV's but gasoline powered... and only in the summer (this is Canada).

Paara,
That's the same crop as I've evaluated here in Canada.  This reflects the "worldwide production" definition that I was referring to above - auto production that has an effect on the world production of EV's.  So, am I correct that you have never seen nor heard of a Chevrolet Bolt or Volt?  I have noticed that the "Big 3" auto makers from the United States have not made a big impact on Europe's auto market.  Only Ford has made a serious effort to sell in Europe, while the ownership of Chrysler by Daimler does not mean there are ever going to be Chryslers for sale in Europe.
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it.  Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.

System spec: 135w BP multicrystalline panels, regulated by Xantrex C40, DIY 8ft diameter wind turbine, regulated by Tri-Star TS60, 800AH x 24V AGM Battery, Xantrex SW4024

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2017, 10:37:42 PM »
So,,
When you say EV's , how many Wheels? 2,34, or more? Land only?

It's a good Clarification given we are seeing Tesla doing another flag waving exercise with a truck even though as yet it has no substance and is short on critical details.

Also interesting to ponder if personal transport will go 3 wheels. Personally can't see it. Been tried before and had stability problems and in these days of crash safety etc, I think the likelihood is to stick with 4 wheels.
Maybe instead of wheels, the weight may be a better indicator?   Here up to 4000Kg is able to be driven on a car license.  After that it's another license for Light truck with 2 more up to semi and then 2 trailers call B double.  After that there is road train.

Quote
Agreed, it's hard to pick a target, not two, three, or more which just confuses the matter.  So I picked one.
And I figured this was at least 1 thing we could agree on.

I'll take the bet 80% of vehicle production/ sales will still be IC in 20 years but I would not agree to call  the EV saturation anything but still a minority at that point.
Given the sheer numbers rather than the semantics, seems we are in agreement after all.

20% of the personal transport fleet as I think we all understand it now does pose the question IF the grid can keep up with the added load of EV demand.
Clearly some ( few) places have excess capacity but a lot more do not.  I wonder what sort of extra electrical load 20% of the fleet will equate to in overall grid demand?
It's not as straightforward as saying the grid or private PV will Keep up, here the subsidies are being reduced and the amount of panels that can be erected is being limited.  In addition the proclivity of the greenwashed that Coal power stations are the devil on earth and all must be shut down tomorrow means the supply of power is not going to increase here and a lot of other places I read of any time soon.

The logical solution would be to adapt a Hong Kong type policy on Vehicles. There you have to have someone come out and inspect you have off street parking to get a permit to buy a vehicle.  With Ev's maybe the criteria would be you had to have enough PV or wind generation to supply the power for your EV. Even if the thing was at work, your home would still be inputting enough or slightly more to compensate for what it used therefore lessening the load on the grid and ensuring the green renewable criteria was met.

Trouble I see here is the potential for power companies and Gubbermints to miss out on some revenue but I'm sure as Ev's become a significant enough number that there is more to be made from the revenue than it costs to collect it, some new tax will be levied that will bring the cost of EV ownership to that similar to the cost of an IC as we pay now.


paara

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2017, 11:31:30 PM »
Theta are some Opel Amperas (same car as Chevrolet bolt, since Opel was inntil recently owned by Chevrolet) The car was very popular with lots og preorders, but Chevrolet is not able to deliver cars. Chevrolet preferes to sell the Bolt in the US, with losses due to emissions rulles, rather then export to abroad markeres. The wait for an ampera is 1-2years I belive, and thus its popularity has crashed. In additon they have increased the price several times after people have already signed contracts for the car. And Chevrolet has sold Opel making everything even more complicated.

There are even more hybrids/phev then EV (new sales)
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 11:36:54 PM by paara »

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2017, 12:39:54 AM »

I looked up the leaf.  $55K here.  Tesla 3 , $156K.
Ev's represent terrible value for money in comparison to IC cars and the fuel savings are not anywhere near amortized over the life of the vehicle. 

Something to remember with Ev's is while they are being developed and improved, so are IC vehicles.  Their economy, performance and reliability is constantly getting better and there is a lot more acceptance of them in the marketplace as well. Production Diesel Vehicles get amazing economy. My brother in laws 4WD Nissan ute carrys 4 people and tows 3.5 ton and on it's own will do over 800 Km on a tank that isn't all that big.  Other EV size Diesels like the golf amoung many others also get economy not imagined years ago.

 The other thing that may work against ev's is the manufacturers themselves.
It was already mentioned that not all dealers are wanting to sell EV's because of the lack of servicing.
I doubt the auto industry is going to do a Kodak and push a technology that effectively sinks it's own ship.  I can see much more profit in developing IC vehicles to compete with EV's ( if they really have to) than doing a whole new tech with little to no back end.
Of course then you have the oil industry as well whom won't be sitting on their hands while their stock prices fall and their shareholders cry Bloody Murder.

The whole EV thing is a very big picture well beyond emissions and the main stream features pushed.

jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2017, 08:45:04 AM »
Theta are some Opel Amperas (same car as Chevrolet bolt, since Opel was inntil recently owned by Chevrolet) The car was very popular with lots og preorders, but Chevrolet is not able to deliver cars. Chevrolet preferes to sell the Bolt in the US, with losses due to emissions rulles, rather then export to abroad markeres. The wait for an ampera is 1-2years I belive, and thus its popularity has crashed. In additon they have increased the price several times after people have already signed contracts for the car. And Chevrolet has sold Opel making everything even more complicated.

There are even more hybrids/phev then EV (new sales)

Thanks Paara.  I have read about how Chevrolet is in effect pushing away Bolt sales in Europe,... .good to get this added report.

I am getting confused by the naming.  It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV], just going by this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt

Yes, the sale of Opel itself has confused matters further.  Do you know if there is a good website where I can see Norwegian BEV and PHEV sales?  I'll take a look around.

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2017, 06:27:45 PM »
I am getting confused by the naming.  It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV],

Probably getting confused by all the needless acronyms.
They are either hybrids or EV's.

All the other add ons is just useless, annoying BS.

SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2017, 07:53:15 PM »
George, in a way you have put your finger on what I can accept and not accept in an EV for myself.  I can't afford a new one, and a pure EV just won't go the distance, so it's a used hybrid for my garage, when the time comes.

I'm still not sure why you are really concerned about "extra load" on the grid from EV's.  Think of the time-scale.  To have enough EV's plugged into the grid to even matter would take many years, maybe more than a decade before anyone will notice the "EV Bump" in consumption overnight.  Compare that the the political time scale for you guys to have an election, vote out the fools letting the South Territory's electricity grid run out of supply, and get a new plant or two built to stop the blackouts.  I'm well aware of the boondoggle going on in south Australia, though I don't know many of the details.  You may have fun reading this guy's rant: http://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=418158

No one believes the theory except the one who developed it.  Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.

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jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2017, 09:10:28 PM »
I am getting confused by the naming.  It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV],

Probably getting confused by all the needless acronyms.
They are either hybrids or EV's.

All the other add ons is just useless, annoying BS.


BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle
PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid
HEV = Hybrid (non-pluggable)
FCEV= Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

EV = generally used to refer either to BEV or PHEV, though some (such as manufacturers that focus on HEVs) like to try to sneak in that it includes HEVS or sometimes FCEVs.  Sometimes then it is useful to talk about

PEV = Plug-in Electric Vehicle which, is more clearly BEV or PHEV.

There are some acronym differences here and there, but the above are more or less widely used/understood/vernacular amongst EV industry participants.

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2017, 09:54:43 PM »
the above are more or less widely used/understood/vernacular amongst EV industry participants.

I'm not in the EV industry.
I don't think anyone else here is either.  Are you in the EV industry?
Far as I'm aware this is not an EV industry forum either.
That really brings it back to Hybrids or Electric for the sake of discussion and all anyone here really needs to specify.

All the rest is just confusing and needless complication.

Simen

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2017, 11:26:43 PM »
Do you know if there is a good website where I can see Norwegian BEV and PHEV sales?  I'll take a look around.

The EAFO site has a good overview. I guess the statistics would be refreshed as we get a bit into the new year... :)
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george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2017, 02:42:33 AM »
George, in a way you have put your finger on what I can accept and not accept in an EV for myself.  I can't afford a new one, and a pure EV just won't go the distance, so it's a used hybrid for my garage, when the time comes.

Why?

Do you want one because you think it's better for the environment or do you think it will save you money?
Are you looking for one you can charge or will it be self charging only like a priarse?

For the hybrids you are looking at, how old would they likley be and what is the battery life of the things? Would you be likley to be up for a replacement battery pack in the future or would you sell it and update before that was needed?
I have heard that those battery packs are a rather substantial investment.

Quote
I'm still not sure why you are really concerned about "extra load" on the grid from EV's.  Think of the time-scale.  To have enough EV's plugged into the grid to even matter would take many years, maybe more than a decade before anyone will notice the "EV Bump" in consumption overnight.

Concerned is probably the wrong word. 
I put is forward as a point of what I think is considerable consideration in the whole Ra Ra Ra  of the Ev/ greenwashed crowd who like to make out we will all be driving EV's in no time at all and the IC fossil fueled vehicle is already dead.
What I like about these arguments and discussions is they make me think and during the course of the various threads here I have seen a whole Bunch of factors that add up to a lot more obstacles for EVs to overcome than I first considered.

The grid load is one of them and I think it's far from the simple thing of generation growing to meet the demand that many Ev proponents make out.  I also think it's a lot more than a localised consideration. as pointed out several times already, there are few countries with abundant power supply and fewer still that have or will go near being renewable.  Your own links to arizona pointed out it will be 7 years before they even hope to hit 15% renewable.  That I think is a concern.

The demand on the grid worldwide is growing all the time.  The green washed thing of coal is evil and must be stopped now reduces capacity and stability.  On one hand you have the green washed trying to reduce generation at the same time promoting the increase of consumption.
It takes a LOT of renewable power to equal one fossil fired station and the renewable is far from stable and dependable.

In a decade, the demand on grids around the world will have grown through all the things that are reliant on it now. Population, business, industry, quality of life improvements Like AC, large TV's and so it goes.
I don't know where to find the info of demand Vs generation relationships but it sure would be interesting to see the projections.

I don't know about other parts of the world but from what I'm reading, The take up of PV is no where near like it is here but our gubbermint is undermining that. I think rather than have the big blattery, the money should have been spent on putting more localised power where it is needed in the form of solar. Unfortunately the green obsessed and Crazy SA gubbermint is so hell bent on being able to make stupid claims, they do it at the cost of sound practices and stability of power for the state.

SA is going to hell in a hand basket.
The cost of power is going through the roof and people are screaming about it. It's costing jobs and industry IS pulling out fast as it can find somewhere else to go where they can be reasonably gauranteed a constant supply of the power they need at a price that is reasonable rather than is SA they are being told they have to limit their use and the supply cannot be guaranteed and there could be blackouts at any time.  We aren't talking storms and freaks of nature here, we are talking normal first world expectations of supply.

I really don't think most of the greenwashed / EV proponents have any idea of the amount of energy contained in liquid fuels, the size of any type of battery to store the same amount of energy as in an average fuel tank and I don't think they understand what that energy equates to in electrical generation terms.  Multiply that out be every car however many there are in your street let alone suburb and city, and the numbers become overwhealming.

Compare that to the amount of power a city generates now and one will get some perspective how mammoth a task this switch to electric really is.

Here's a real quick one....
My 4WD has a 100L tank. Yes, large by sedan standards but around here, a significant part of the local transport.
Diesel is about 10.7Kw of energy per litre. Let's call it 10 for ease of my poor mathematics.
100L in my tank x10 Kwh = 1000 KWh.

My 6.5 Kw solar system is averaging with weather about 25KwH a day atm being summer here. 5kwh is the standard for new systems being installed now but a lot larger than most older ones being 1.5-2 Kw.
If I put my 25kwh a day JUST into my vehicle, Thats going to take 40 days on average to give me ONE tankfull of Diesel.
Lets halve that as a closer to average sort of tank capacity.  500KWH, 20 days at 25KWH per day.

Look at it another way.  Average home here for a family of 4 my power bill says is about 30 KWH a day.  50L of fuel in the average family car, and few families have one here, 500Kwh / 30 Kwh = 16 days average power use in that vehicle.
Most people I know fill up at least once a week. 2000Kwh month for the car,  30Kwh x 30 days = 900 KWH for the home.
Anyone getting the picture of the energy load we are talking about here?

That average family car is worth more than 2 average home electric consumption per month. If they have ONE car. Round here, I'd reckon the average number would be 3. In some places it will be one but I bet 2 cars per home on average would be conservative now in most western countries averaged out, citys, suburbs, country.  Looked up the numbers, spot on, 2.28 for Oz with 35% owning 3 or more.
US, looks exactly the same, canada a bit less, 1,8 cars per family.

So in reality, the average home in these countries would have 4-5 times the demand on the grid for power for their ev's than they are using in their homes now.
At best, the number of houses in your street as far as power consumption goes just tripled. More likely, it just multiplied by a factor of at least 5.
In every street in every suburb in every city and town right across the country......

How many homes do you think will be able to have enough panels to charge their vehicles up in even a week even if they covered the whole block and used the panels as a roof?

Maybe you were right, Concern is probably the right word when I break it down like this.


How long before you think the grid where you live will be able to handle that 500% ++ increase in demand, and what do you think the price of power might be to pay for the infrastructure to supply it?

jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2017, 07:32:00 AM »
Do you know if there is a good website where I can see Norwegian BEV and PHEV sales?  I'll take a look around.

The EAFO site has a good overview. I guess the statistics would be refreshed as we get a bit into the new year... :)

This EAFO site you mention is great, thanks.  On that website, toggling the filters to PHEV only, it shows the top three sellers as:

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Volkswagen Passat GTE

I point this up because, to this point, none of these have been made available in the US.  This may not be the best way, and you may already have it as it is a common link, but a quick way to see this is here:

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
October 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
2 weeks ago   by Jay Cole 94

In addition to taking its time getting PHEVs to the US, VW has also taken its time getting the longer-range BEVs here.  For example:
https://insideevs.com/october-2017-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

"...Volkswagen e-Golf:     
Congratulations Volkswagen, you win our “jackass of the year” award…and 2017 isn’t even over yet.
After a rocky start with continued dieselgate fallout, the longer range 2017 e-Golf was promised to the US after production started in Germany in late 2016.
Well, guess what?  For the next nine months all VW did was have the “old & busted” 2016s clogging up dealer lots – refusing to clear them out to make way for the new hotness.
Finally the 2016s are gone, and like a magical unicorn, the new/longer range 2017 edition has appeared!  And yes, you heard that right, VW was so slow with the upgraded model that they are just now introducing a “2017” model as everyone else has switched to the 2018s....."

« Last Edit: December 31, 2017, 07:36:59 AM by jlsoaz »

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2017, 04:38:50 PM »

Looking at the electric sales Numbers compared to the total US sales shows EV's ( Bev's, phevs, WTF?evs, whocaresEVs BSEVs, E=MC2/34xx@yEVs) To be around 1% of total US car sales. Hardly an industry/world changer or anything to get excited about.
Report also paints a less than rosy picture for the production and sales.

The global Picture is slightly worse with world EV sales not even cracking 900K sales out of a total 94M.
That 20 year bet is looking pretty good so far!

Also puts into reality how far these things have to go before they come near meeting the hype and change the world claims of the greenwashed  looking for yet another cause to champion riding on the fossil fuel charged electric bandwagon.

Going back to my power consumption calculation, Let's say BSev sales carry on at 1% per year.  I think most people would say they will ramp up faster which on the face of it, I would agree with. Transposing this would mean that the electrical demand on the world wide grid is going to go up 40-50% in just 10 years just for charging EV's.  That does not include increased population, increased uptake of appliances, AC, expanding industry and business and a whole range of other normal demand increase. It would also not include charging commercial electric's such as the buses, trucks, light rail and all the rest in the electric is god cult like thinking.

That transposes to building another HALF current grid generation and distribution to what we have in place now.
NOT A HOPE IN HELL!

Where are they going to put all those solar farms and windmills even if they don't build another Coal or nuke fired power station. You want ANY of those things near you?  Fact and history shows no one else does! Once they are built, then you have to get the power to where it needs to be. You won't mind them hanging some more power lines over your home will you or them reclaiming you and your neighbours place to put up a new tower.  If you prefer, they can put the lines underground but they are going to have to demolish all the homes on your side of the street to lay it.

Being that power consumption is growing so fast, not much point just putting something in to cater for the demand today, we'll do a 20 year projection on it which will make that sub station down the road at least twice the size it is now and probably a worthwhile terrorist target as well.
We'll also be out to upgrade those power lines running past your house with these nice new 2" thick ones capeable of carrying the current all those BSev's are sucking down which means we'll also have to preplace all the poles to carry the weight and strain.

Yep, going to make one hell of an eyesore out of everything, cost an inconceivable amount and endless disruption but you'll be able to say that your car has no tail pipe and we know that will all be worth it because people have been telling us that's what they demand and nothing else is acceptable.    ::)

Pretty apparent to me that there could be limitations placed on EV's due to this sooner rather than later.  If in 5 years the things do manage to increase to 5% of vehicle sales, the power demand on the grid will go up 20% and that will cause problems and alarm bells to start ringing.  Loudly.

Any EV proponents that think the things will just merrily go along becoming ever more popular without attracting attention from the gubbermints, power industry and Oil companies is kidding themselves.

Pretty sure in most countries the revenue from fuel excise would far outstrip that of Electric power taxes and once the gubbermints that count on that revenue start seeing a decline in their income, there will be a mileage or annual tax on electrics that will kill a lot of the cost advantages. I can also see a backlash from the public that will support this. There was a similar thing back in the days of home brew bio fuels when people were saying why should these guys drive on the roads for free when we are paying taxes to fund them.
Same thing happens now with Bicycles.

Once the taxes and levys go up or come in and the cost advantage of EV's goes away, I think they will be real lucky to achieve 1% of sales a year.


SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2018, 09:09:52 PM »
Hey, another contender:  http://bollingermotors.com/  8)

Well... seems to suit the Hummer/Navigator crowd, in that it sends a loud message.  Urbanites have their particular uses for trucks and this might work.  Country folk probably won't take to it.
One plus would be that there's no risk of setting a fire from engine exhaust (cause of many fires in Alberta every year).
A remote site with poor roads needing only occasional transportation may be suitable.  Removes the need to store fuel if the site can be equipped with enough generating capacity.  Still looks like a niche market.  I'll keep my Chev 2500 for a while yet.

If Bollinger can make this one roadworthy and get a year of production under their belts, I'd hope to see a lot of changes in the follow-up models.  Currently it looks like its made with flat sheet metal and welded stock shapes.  Not a weight-efficient design - in a battery-powered vehicle that leaves a lot of room for improvement.  I also suspect that all of the flat surfaces, combined with knobby tires, will make a very loud road-noise interior.
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it.  Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.

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jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #23 on: January 01, 2018, 11:09:12 PM »
Hey, another contender:  http://bollingermotors.com/  8)

Well... seems to suit the Hummer/Navigator crowd, in that it sends a loud message.  Urbanites have their particular uses for trucks and this might work.  Country folk probably won't take to it.
One plus would be that there's no risk of setting a fire from engine exhaust (cause of many fires in Alberta every year).
A remote site with poor roads needing only occasional transportation may be suitable.  Removes the need to store fuel if the site can be equipped with enough generating capacity.  Still looks like a niche market.  I'll keep my Chev 2500 for a while yet.

If Bollinger can make this one roadworthy and get a year of production under their belts, I'd hope to see a lot of changes in the follow-up models.  Currently it looks like its made with flat sheet metal and welded stock shapes.  Not a weight-efficient design - in a battery-powered vehicle that leaves a lot of room for improvement.  I also suspect that all of the flat surfaces, combined with knobby tires, will make a very loud road-noise interior.

Again, speaking only for myself, over the years, EV upstarts are a dime-a-dozen, but Bollinger's timing may be good and I'm allowing myself to be slightly optimistic for them.  One of the reasons, apart from the timing and just kind of enjoying a video or two, is that the established manufacturers and even Tesla have the door open for now on some of the pickup truck segment of the market.  The Bollinger is not exactly a pickup, but I'm just saying, the potential is there to try to fill a niche before others do.

Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #24 on: January 02, 2018, 04:02:51 PM »
Bollinger estimated price: starting at $60k!!! YIKES!

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #25 on: January 02, 2018, 05:04:54 PM »
Bollinger estimated price: starting at $60k!!! YIKES!

I don't know what 4WD's go for in the states and other parts of the world but I'd say in this market with that vehicle, it may not be a huge obstacle.

The thing looks pretty different and versatile and very often in marketing, Different is enough.
First thing I'd look at and pay attention to if I were the maker would of course be Military applications. If the thing can be made to have low noise and minimal heat signature, I could see it being a winner as a platform for Recce or other black op type uses.  Certainly big enough for a gun platform and might also have uses for rescue applications. Be great as a surveillance platform, has it's own battery built right in to run all the electronics.

Thing is, one decent Gubbermint contract and you are laughing. Price would not be an issue at that rate either.

In the civillian market, it would have to offer advantages over conventional vehicles in order to have a chance at sales. The electric may be a big drawback.  Thing runs out of power you have to get a generator and fuel to it and wait a long while for it to charge up as against an IC where you get the fuel, put it in and on your way.  Might be a great thing for national parks and conservation areas where they want something quiet and the no emissions appeals and they only have limited distance to cover.

One would really have to analyse the market and see where the gaps were and how this thing would fill them with the abilities and weaknesses it has but I don't see $60K being a big hurdle if everything else is right with it. 

SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #26 on: January 03, 2018, 12:21:08 PM »
Quote
First thing I'd look at and pay attention to if I were the maker would of course be Military applications.

I have heard a lot over the years that the US Military has made advances in reducing their dependence on fuel transport to supply energy to their garrisons.  Common problem in Iraq, Afghanistan was that these bases needed frequent fuel trucks - sweet prizes to hit with IED's. 

I wonder how far you could travel if you packed it full of solar panels, deployed them all day, and drove all night, every day.  Make for a new kind of desert race. 
(Did anybody see "The Martian" - basically what that guy did.)
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it.  Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.

System spec: 135w BP multicrystalline panels, regulated by Xantrex C40, DIY 8ft diameter wind turbine, regulated by Tri-Star TS60, 800AH x 24V AGM Battery, Xantrex SW4024

Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #27 on: January 03, 2018, 12:26:17 PM »
Useless for military use in a shooting zone. By the time you slap armor on it and quadruple the weight...

Bollinger estimated price: starting at $60k!!! YIKES!

I don't know what 4WD's go for in the states and other parts of the world but I'd say in this market with that vehicle, it may not be a huge obstacle.

The thing looks pretty different and versatile and very often in marketing, Different is enough.
First thing I'd look at and pay attention to if I were the maker would of course be Military applications. If the thing can be made to have low noise and minimal heat signature, I could see it being a winner as a platform for Recce or other black op type uses.  Certainly big enough for a gun platform and might also have uses for rescue applications. Be great as a surveillance platform, has it's own battery built right in to run all the electronics.

Thing is, one decent Gubbermint contract and you are laughing. Price would not be an issue at that rate either.

In the civillian market, it would have to offer advantages over conventional vehicles in order to have a chance at sales. The electric may be a big drawback.  Thing runs out of power you have to get a generator and fuel to it and wait a long while for it to charge up as against an IC where you get the fuel, put it in and on your way.  Might be a great thing for national parks and conservation areas where they want something quiet and the no emissions appeals and they only have limited distance to cover.

One would really have to analyse the market and see where the gaps were and how this thing would fill them with the abilities and weaknesses it has but I don't see $60K being a big hurdle if everything else is right with it.

george65

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #28 on: January 03, 2018, 04:23:26 PM »

I wonder how far you could travel if you packed it full of solar panels, deployed them all day, and drove all night, every day.

Not too far I'm thinking.

For the 100Kwh version to recharge the thing in 8 hours ( presuming desert sunlight) you are going to need 12.5 Kw of panels.
This presumes there are 8 good hours of sunlight and does NOT take into account losses in charging and energy conversion in the batteries.
I'd be thinking a realistic and safer option would be about 20KW of panels if you wanted full range every day.

That's a lot of freaking panels.
1 250W panel weighs 20 KG close enough, 4 panels to the Kw, 80 panels = 1.6 metric ton. Plus probably another ton of trailer to cart them all around in. Imagine setting them up and the target that would provide. So much for the stealth factor.
Add that to the amour Mary mentions and the thing has about a 20 Mile radius before you even add in equipment and personnel.

I was thinking of it more for short range recon and assaults where armour would be minimal to non existent and would be a return to base or a patrol situation.
Even so, looking at the specs they specify 12 hour recharge but there is a fast charge option. Still going to be reliant on fossil fuel though and I would strongly suspect that the total fuel needed would be greater than just an IC engine by the time you figured in the losses in conversion of running a generator to charge the battery's and all the drawbacks that go with it.

Thinking it through, these things might be good for some Highly specialised tasks but they sure as hell are not going to be replacing anything IC powered for a very long time to come. The military just ordered a Humvee replacement and I'm sure Electric would have been at least mentioned but obviously has a long ways to go yet to satisfy requirements.

The more you look at it rationally and factually, the more you see these Ev's have a VERY long way to go to becoming anything to worry the IC fleet and if they ever do replace the IC engines we have today as a major alternative, It's going to be a LONG way off and certainly more than 20 years at this stage no matter how much hype and feel good stories are put out there.

Seems just like that new, revolutionary engine that weighs nothing, get's 150 MPG and puts out 300 HP that we have heard about 50 times over the last 25+ years and still waiting to see. 

JW

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #29 on: January 04, 2018, 02:04:24 PM »
Quote
Seems just like that new, revolutionary engine that weighs nothing, get's 150 MPG and puts out 300 HP that we have heard about 50 times over the last 25+ years and still waiting to see. 

believe it or not there is a company out there claiming just that, Ive watched them spend 30 million and they still have nothing