Yes I can see why you are confused. You are trying to mathematically analyse something that is too complicated. Most fluid dynamics problems are beyond analysis or ar at the limit of present computer modelling. Fluids equations are full of constants to make the answer fit the observed facts and when some of the constants are variable then you know you are in the world of guesswork.
I have found the thrust to be close to the 1/2 of 1/2 rho A v^2 as far as the thrust on the tower is concerned for typical high speed blades, Ed's higher figure may be nearer for a lower solidity rotor.
This will not help you a lot with furling as the rotor itself tries to stay into the wind and unless your thrust exceeds the seeking force it will not furl.
The effective force you have trying to furl it is the difference between thrust and seeking force. I think you have no hope of calculating the seeking force as I suspect that only a few of us actually know that it exists. It depends on the type of blade, and operating tsr. The only help I can give you is that if you make the alternator offset less than about 4% of rotor diameter it will never furl, so you may be able to approximate the seeking force from that.
The main angle to consider for furling is the one that tips the tail into the air as it furls. The one deciding where the tail is attached in the horizontal plane mainly determines the bias point of the tail restoring force against its stop and slightly affects how the restoring force changes with angle of the tail to the alternator axis.
Fortunately things change so drastically with wind speed that if you aim to furl at 20 mph you would need a drastic increase in tail weight to raise it to 30 mph. If you use the usual angles and tail dimensions it will likely come out about right.
Don't kid yourself that furling is a precise process, you will never see it sitting at constant power out like a pitch control.