That spreadsheet looks like a good start. That's how I'd do it: get the alternator modeled well, then work on the blades. It's nice that it takes into account the varying alternator efficiency (and heat losses) with amperage.
Would you get better results if you let the blade efficiency vary with windspeed?
Also, I'm curious what kind of physical alternator arrangement this formula assumes? Is it multi-phase? What kind of magnets? Rotor diameter? Gap?
Since I don't actually have any windmills yet, I'm more interested in the effects of those types of changes on the alternator capacity and efficiency.
Maybe if we come up with a standardized testing procedure and a list of what kind of data would be needed to create a more detailed, accurate model, people can contribute numbers for the variations that they build. Having lots of standardized experimental data would help build a good model in no time.