Solar Power Headed For 45% Annual Growth

[wooferhound]

Detailed article about why Solar Panel prices will be coming down in the near future.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2007-08-26-solar_N.htm

[TomW]

Woof;

Uh, you actually and honestly find USA Today to be a valid source of information?

Not to get started but it has almost as much credibility as wikipedia as a source of reliable info. I can't stand the 5th grade level writing myself. Although, to be fair, I did see a couple 3 syllable words in that story so it is a bit better than most they publish.

It kind of comes down to fluff near as I can tell at this point.

By now, you know I am quite sceptical and will believe it when I see it in the price lists.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Cheers.

TomW

[Bruce S]

Hey TomW;

   I like USAtoday for the cartoons :-D

This time though, seems they have an intern or two doing the ground work. The company United Solar Ovonics has been in home power magazine talking months ago about how "once" the newer plants come on line the costs will begin to decrease back to where they were a few years back, before ALL the countries got into the PV grove.

Woofer , thanks for the read. They were featured in home power mag too, but has been some months ago. Was a blurb in there about the new roll up PVs and how it'll make the PVs much less of a wind & weight load on the roofs.

Cheers ALL!!

Bruce S

[jimjjnn]

Got'ta agree with TomW.

I remember over 20 years ago that we were promised solar for $2 a watt from all kinds of media.

[veewee77]

Actually, if the gov't and big oil doesn't stop him, keep an eye on that ovonics stuff. The guy's name is Stan Ovshinsky. Over 200 patents to his name, one of which is the Ovonic battery (NiMH), and 60% of his company (controlling shares) was bought out by GM, supposedly to be used in the GM EV-1, (which was buried by it's own creator) and later sold to Texaco. The guy is building one of the largest this film solar manufacturing facilities in the world and is optomistic about the future of solar.

"Anybody who wants to make a revolution shouldn't grab a gun, just go and start working like we do to change the world by using science and technology."

Stan Ovshinsky

Don't shoot the messenger. . .

Doug

[domwild]

Like you I am a great admirer of Ovshinski. As you said his battery patent was bought by GM and that is the company which killed the electric car. Even film stars like our Mel Gibson had to fill in extensive questionnairs to be allowed to buy the EV-1 and the advertising budget was pitiful just so to reduce demand.  

Here in Oz we have BP Solar selling PV panels. Is it a good thing if oil and car companies buy patents for anything renewable? I do not think so.

Regards,

 

[DamonHD]

In the case of BP at least I think they're in it to get a slice of it, not to kill it.  (I own a few shares and used to do some contract work for them many years ago, and think that they are a very good company inside.)

[powerbuoy]

I like the guy from Ovonics too. However, his thinfilm products currently sold by sunwize seem to be on the steep side.

US-64 64 Watt thin-film panel sells for $499.00  That's $7.80 per watt. There are cheaper conventional panels out there as far as I know.

I also saw some of ovonics flex-roll panels on another site. The pricing was just as bad, ... maybe I am missing s.th. here.

Powerbuoy

[DamonHD]

I just recently bought a UniSolar ES62 (62W thin-film triple junction) for ~£240, ie about USD480, which although expensive in your terms is about 20% less per Watt than typical monocrystaline panels of a similar capacity in the UK.

Rgds

Damon

[ghurd]

Well...

I'm not sure how (or when?) Ovonic and Unisolar hooked up.

They have photos of the Auburn Hills MI facilities, but every Unisolar US-XX, when I recall looking at the sticker, said "Made in Malaysia".  I didn't notice a photo, or any mention, of the Malaysia facilities.  A bit more looking found mention of a facility in Tijuana, Mexico. And `700 employees worldwide'.

The "Technology:  Triple-junction thin film technology developed by the R& D team that holds a world record in cell and module efficiencies" makes me wonder more than a little about their honesty to disclosure ratio.  Read that part slowly.  I am sure there are 100 ways to figure a `world record' and I doubt the way they have it figured relates to the Triple-Junction thin film AND crystalline. Or maybe their record is NOT for thin film?

According to the story "Thin-film panels are about half as efficient as standard systems".  I assume `standard' means poly or mono crystalline.

Supply and demand.  If they could keep up making PVs, they would not have discontinued everything below 62/64W.  They sold thousands of the US-21 and US-32 just around here.  The local demand for Unisolar PVs plummeted at exactly that moment.

If they can make enough PVs to keep up, why discontinue so many models?

Plus, even if they sold the PVs to primary distributors for $1/W, somewhere along the line the price would increase dramatically.  Retail wouldn't be a whole lot less than a better (personal opinion) poly or mono crystalline PV.

Companies are in business to make money.  The price will be related to what the end user is willing to pay.  

It sounds like UK PV users are only willing to pay 20% less for thin film, while US users are willing to pay about the same.  Maybe the UK users do more research because all the PVs cost more?  

If they could sell them for 6.6% more, they certainly would.

If it cost $10 to make a new kind of PV, that they wholesale for $15, they make $5.

If they could wholesale it for $16, the profits rise 20%. ($5 to $6)

What company would NOT increase profits 20% if the market would bear it with the stroke of a pen?  Especially considering if they don't do it, someone down the supply line will do it.

It's been 17 years.  If `big oil' is out to get them, they are doing a pretty piss poor job of it.  If they have something new as a start up company, they need a new PR secretary.

Maybe `big oil' Shell was being Extra Super Sneaky when it sold its unprofitable solar division to Solar World?  Maybe Solar World is part of the plan, like when they go out of business because they didn't make any money too?  The investors must have gone in on the plan to lose their invested money just to make sure their gasoline prices stay high.

I do not intend to blast anyone's PVs.  I'm sure Ovshinski is smart, and a nice guy.

G-

[DamonHD]

There is so much new PV capacity being brought on-line now and over the new few years that lack of production capacity for smaller panels seems entirely plausible to me.

And my ES62 seems to work well!  B^>

Rgds

Damon

[ghurd]

At least one PV production facility shut down indefinitely (it is now back up and running) because it could not get silicone to make PVs.

Like, they can not sell pints in AL cans if there is no AL available to make the cans.

And maybe ESXX= made for Europe? USXX= made for USA?  

We didn't have a US-62 that I know of.

O.T.  Where was it made?

G-

[Ungrounded Lightning Rod]

Multijunction panels are three stacked panels in series, with decreasing bandgap as you get deeper.  Higher-energy photons are picked off by the higher bandgap outer layers, which produce a higher voltage.

Net result is that you get a third of the current but considerably more than three times the voltage for a given panel area than with conventional single-junction cells.  That means multijunction panels have inherently higher efficiency (provided you get the bandgaps balanced correctly.)

The new quantum-dot coatings for single-junction cells should do better yet, and they're a lot easier to build.  But there's no puffery in the multijunction claims.

[Ungrounded Lightning Rod]

At least one PV production facility shut down indefinitely (it is now back up and running) because it could not get silicone to make PVs

SiliCON (the element - as ultrapure crystals), not siliCONE (silicon/hydrogen long-chain molecules, like oils, greases, and plastics but with the carbon replaced by silicon.)

There's no shortage of silicon.  Pick up a handfull of sand, a rock, or a piece of glass.  It's mostly silicon dioxide.  The bulk of the earth's crust is this stuff.  What there is a shortage of is ultrapure silicon:  It costs a lot to purify it to semiconductor grade.

A lot of solar cell operations used the odd-sized chunks that are left over from integrated circuit manufacture.  This is pure enough for solar cells but would require almost as much work as starting fresh from sand to clean it up to the purity needed for more chip manufacturing.

Thus recycling this waste nearly-ultrapure silicon into solar panels is a great cost-savings.  But it means that solar panel output is limited by the amount of available IC scrap.  Making more would mean paying full cost for the refining process, drastically increasing the panel costs.  So manufacturing output was limited by the (gradually increasing) scrap flow, until demand raised prices enough to pay for silicon purification.

[ghurd]

I certainly do understand what you are saying, however

If they have the bandgaps properly balanced, wouldn't the thin film PVs easily beat crystalline on a M^2 basis?

If the thin film is so much cheaper to produce, and with less silicone, wouldn't they be more available (they are), and a lot cheaper (they are not).

I am told, off the record, much of the non-US market won't accept them from a certain company.  I am openly told by almost everyone the crystalline type is currently experiencing a `higher demand in the foreign market for a better quality PV'.

Secondarily, concerning value /W, why didn't they increase their warranty to match most crystalline PV manufactures until relatively recently?

Case in point, completely according to my recollection, Photowatt came out with a 25 year warranty, most other brands with a 20 year warranty went to 25 years. Shortly after US went up to the previous standard of a 20 year warranty, which I believe they still follow.

It makes me wonder about the expected life of certain PVs if they increase the warranty 400% because it is the best they can do to try to keep up with the competition.  The 5 and 20 year warranty thin film PVs look the same to me.  I have not seen many faulty crystalline PVs, while I have seen a lot of faulty thin film PVs still under warranty.

The CON/CONE thing, IIRC, there was not any available. The available supply was previously contracted out to other parties.

[DamonHD]

Hi,

Don't think 'ES' is 'EU' in this case, but rather 'Eco-Series'!  And I think the ES62 model has been canned because its working voltage is a bit low ~15V (10x1.5V cells).

More info here:

http://www.midsummerenergy.co.uk/buy_solar_panels/unisolar_framed_solar_panels/unisolar_es62_framed_
solar_panel.html

Rgds

Damon

[powerbuoy]

Maybe its time for another post, requesting comments on "who wants to share his/her experiences made with todays thin film panels"

Ghurd said: "I have not seen many faulty crystalline PVs, while I have seen a lot of faulty thin film PVs still under warranty"

Are there performance/reliability issues?

PB

[DamonHD]

Hi again,

1. I think that amorphous panels WILL have a shorter life than crystalline, hence a shorter warrantee period is reasonable, say 20 years rather than 25.  That trade-off may well be worth it for some applications.
   
2. Some of this technology is still relatively young and with practical experience thin on the ground it is difficult to know what practical lifetime will be.  Will geese or cosmic rays or stupid roofers prove the biggest danger to stick-down thin-film PV for example?
   
   

Rgds

Damon

[ghurd]

I believe the performance issue is clouded with different testing criteria.

Crystalline PVs usually have a corner of X% shaded, like the thin film PVs. The thin film wins the test.  Go figure.  A whole cell, or more, on the crystalline is shaded. Maybe a test with one `stripe' on the thin film shaded, and the same % stripe shaded on a crystalline?  Things look a lot more even then.  Who puts a PV where it's half shaded anyway?

A VW Golf gets 44MPG?  Does that motor get 44MPG in a semi?

Apples and oranges?

Purely my own Reliability experiences under the `too much information' heading.

Maybe 6~8 years ago I purchased a rather reasonable quantity of used poly crystalline PVs.

The seller threw in a batch of 15~17W Chronar (sp?) thin films... free, if I wanted them.  Free is free.

Sold a few of the Chronars after testing each.  A guy wanted a dozen wholesale, OK.  By the time I had 12 that were decent, I had 30(?) that were no good. No good meaning dumpster.  Some with good Vopen, near no Ishort.  Some with good Ishort had too low Vopen.  Some looked OK open/short, until put to a battery.

Had some that were almost good / no-good, like 5~8W, which I gave away.

Sold a few more, threw a lot more away.  Sold the remainder untested and non-guaranteed for $5 (?) each, delivered in a lot.  I told him what I knew.

Not sure how old they were. Chronar under any spelling I can think of is barely a footnote. Definitely older technology.

HF PVs, some guys like BruceS have perfect luck, some like NTL have horrible luck.

There are many brands of PV floating around the local market. Nearly the entire local PV problem is with thin film.

I got into the whole solar thing by accident, before HF PVs.  Wrong place, wrong time, right knowledge, kind of thing.

I found myself repeatedly at places where the owner (et al) was attempting to diagnose problems with US-XX PVs.  I got a reputation.  They started calling my boss to make sure I would show up for my boss's business matters, then have me look at their PV problems while I was there.  One thing led to another.

There are 2 other major suppliers in the area. I'm not sure which sells more. One sells US-XX (unless he finds a better deal, meaning more markup), the other guy usually Kyocera or Evergreen (but not thin film).  Neither knows anything about PVs.  Quite a few systems are mail order.

So who do they call when it doesn't work?  

I see mostly faulty components, installation, or `operator error'.  Thin film to not thin film is probably 50:50?  Guessing that's how their sales go.

I see a LOT more thin film systems where the PV is the actual problem.  Guessing its 20:1, maybe more.

The ratios don't make sense to me.  That's all I'm saying.

I can sell any brand or type I want.  I won't sell thin film.

And I won't sell a Kyocera because of their business practices.  I was going to change cell phone companies unless they could get me a non-Kyocera phone. They did. (yea, that's a seriously unhealthy grudge I'm holding)

G-

[DamonHD]

Thanks for all that.  So, you wouldn't touch UniSolar thin-film with a long pole given your experiences?

What about brands such as Sanyo?  Direct experience or word of mouth?

Rgds

Damon

[ghurd]

PV wholesale prices are `volatile'. Usually, I can wait for a better deal on crystalline.  So the price is often the same £/W.  My situation is different than the consumer.

I don't recall ever seeing a Sanyo.  Those are Big PVs for this market.  40~80W is more normal.  150~250W is a big array around here.  Shipping issues and sales volume on something like that would make it unattractive.