Considering ~25kW array on roof

[Aiken]

Okay, I hate people who show up in fields/forums they don't understand and ask stupid questions, so I've endeavored to figure as much out as possible before posting here.

I have a bug up my butt about paying other people to dam rivers and run nuclear power plants to give me power, so I'm looking at solar.  Alas, my available panel space would only be about 25 square meters and we draw about 45 kWh per day, so I can't get off that teat no matter what I do.  Still, it'd be a step in the right direction, and I can do more to reduce consumption, too.

So anyway, I've read as much as it took to feel overwhelmed, ran through the calculators posted in this forum (http://www.fieldlines.com/story/2006/7/28/22925/9019), and even with the most optimistic numbers, a $2k tax credit, and about $1300 in incentives from Washington State, I still figure I'm down about $4k over the next 25 years.

So, my question is, is there any chance at all that the cost of ownership is coming down any time soon?  I'm guessing not, since everywhere I look, I see people saying that demand is up and supply is inadequate, so I can't see any reason for anyone to charge less for panels.  More, perhaps, but certainly not less.  I used the default price of $5/W in henjulfox's excel spreadsheet, but I think that's way optimistic, based on what I see people selling panels for online.  Maybe you guys know where to get better deals, I don't know, but it looks more like $6-8/W to me.  Are there maybe package deals one can get?  Or do people just look for crazy deals on eBay and cross their fingers?

I could stomach breaking even, no problem, just for the privilege of being (more) self-sufficient.  I could even take a small hit, maybe a thousand or two, for that privilege.  But $4k, which is optimistic, or $6-8k, which is probably realistic, is just too prohibitive.

Any feedback?  I sure would appreciate it.

Thanks...

[ghurd]

Well, you need more roof!

The 25KW is figuring for 100% eff.

Panels run "around" 7% for thin-film (short lived), 15% for crystalline (long life).

"Package Deals" are for suckers... usually.

Try conservation too.  Its easy. Use CFLs. Turn the A/C up 3 degrees. etc.

G-

[henjulfox]

Aiken,

My crystal ball says panels prices won't come down in the short term. In the long term... Seems every year or two there is a news blip about a breakthrough that will revolutionize the PV industry. Potential for panels under a buck a watt. I ain't seen it yet.

Hydro and Wind can be cost-effective in the right location. The trick is having the right location. Solar hot water can pay for itself pretty quick as well.

I'm up to 2 KW of capacity on my roof that I've picked up on E-bay for $4 per watt. 1 bad deal, 1/2 dozen good deals.  Haven't found any recently at that price. During the summer they are providing me with around 1/4 of my electricity. It's better than nothing.

Good luck,

-Henry

[Aiken]

D'oh!  I meant 2.5kW, not 25kW.  My roof isn't THAT big.  

Thanks for the feedback...

[commanda]

45 KWHrs per day is probably excessive. Practice conservation.

If you already have the grid connected, going solar is usually impossible to justify on financial grounds. As you've already discovered.

If you're moving to the boonies (insert local dialect version of back of the black stump, woop woop, etc here) and the local power company wants X times $10,000 to connect the grid so they can have the priviledge of sending you a quarterly electricity bill, then RE starts to look real attractive.

You know that picture of the old man who was once a young man waiting for the price of real estate to come down?  Well he's the same old man who was once a young man waiting for the cost of solar panels to come down.

And as for the "breakthrough" which will make the cost of manufacturing solar panels plummet. If you know anything about marketing, you will know that the retail cost of an item bears precious little relationship with its cost of manufacture.

(Yes, I know this is a broad sweeping statement, and that some will want to argue the point on some particular example. I throw it in here more for artistic effect than some all-encompassing truth.)

Amanda

[wlcoldiron]

Hello

Depending on the type of roof and the age of the roof may be a factor. Periodically the face of the PV panel needs to be cleaned. The dirt impedes the production. Don't forget the weight of the system on the roof. The decking will sag between the rafters because of the weight of the system. WLC

[wdyasq]

"And as for the "breakthrough" which will make the cost of manufacturing solar panels plummet. If you know anything about marketing, you will know that the retail cost of an item bears precious little relationship with its cost of manufacture."

Well, if they do produce the '25 cent a watt' or whatever number they claim but the consumer never sees, it will probabaly be protected by patent. If one can make profit at $1 (just a number) but it costs everyone else $4, why should that company sell, or for you folks who would like control industry be required by law to give away their technology, at less than market value?

I believe panel prices will rise with the value of oil. It requires energy to make the cells, the extrusions for the frames, the covers and the solder to connect the copper that carries the power. I also takes energy to transport the panels from the factory to the boonies.

Still, panels are cheaper now than they were 20 years ago. For years panel prices remained at about US$4 watt while the cost of an auto went up about four fold and oil went up a bunch more than that. Whatever one pays tehy will still be getting tomorrow's energy at today's costs.

Ron

[TomW]

However, energy costs in general will not likely ever go down much henceforth. This makes making panels more expensive as well as making the ones you already own more valuable when energy costs increase.

Man, the FIRST step you need to take is stop hogging down so much energy. Flow controls, CFL lighting, cowboy up and gut out a few extra degrees of heat and disable that AC unit. The list goes on.

Much easier to conserve a KWH than make one.

Cheers.

TomW

[disaray1]

 Amanda's right on the money about conservation. Here's a method to start that worked for me...

 Step One: Buy a "Kill-a-Watt", about $30 US. Play with it. Analyze what you use, scrutinize the power bill and start keeping up with your real consumption.

 Step Two: Start conserving. Replace every bulb in the house with compact flourescent, or better yet, 120V LED (if you can stand it. It's like moonlight! or a freaky scary-movie kinda light...). Start using a clothes line instead of a drier. Put your elec. water heater on a timer to run an hour a day, or better still, a DIY solar water heater. Turn up (or Off!) the a/c. Unplug the TV/VCR/Cable box when not in use. Better yet, throw the whole damn thing in the yard, since 98% of the stuff that comes out of it is propaganda/mind numbing JUNK anyway. Get a flat screen monitor for your Puter. CRTs suck. Fabricate or buy a solar oven. Make the project fun, and see what you can change or do without completley.  You'll see your power bill heading down with every change!

  Step Three: Start looking for deals. "Decent" PV can be had for less than 4 bucks per. Right now on Ebay, you can buy used Kyocera 120s for around $3.75 per watt. Start small and expand at your own rate. Add a homebrew wind ginny. Be creative. You don't have to come out of the box with an off the grid system! Make off the grid your end goal and work towards that.

 Will a new stand alone ever pay for itself? At the current price of grid power, maybe or maybe not. But when grid power goes up, AND IT WILL GO UP!, you'll be thankful you made the investment in time, money and knowledge NOW, before everyone on this planet is needing and wanting it.

 David

[finnsawyer]

"I have a bug up my butt about paying other people to dam rivers ....".  Gee, I have a bug up my butt about not using a certain river where the mining companies built two dams, one wood and one steel, to produce power.

"They talk the talk, but they don't walk the walk".

[Opera House]

The future is small grid tie systems in every home (with no batteries) to generate power in the day when most people use it.  This would solve a lot of problems.  Laws don't get written in Washington unless a lobbyist is handing out money.  The people with money have no interest in this, they want to sell more oil, coal, and generation capacity.

[Clifford]

Start small with conservation.

Maybe plan on converting lights over to Solar, and then move some additional things over.

Then target some of your power HOGS like converting to Solar Hot Water.

As far as cost..

Consider the construction of the Bonneville Dam.  It took approximately 3,000 employees, 5 years to construct (working around the clock shifts).  I presume the expected payoff was 30+ years.  Thus, you might not expect immediate return on your solar system.

But, then again, I doubt that Electricity prices will stay fixed for the next 30 years either.

As far as my "crystal ball".  It is a bit cloudy, but I would anticipate prices to start dropping significantly in the next few years.  But, perhaps that will be comparing apples and oranges.  The durable 25 - 50 year silicone based cells will likely stay pretty flat in the future (with inflation catching up creating the illusion of lower prices).  

However, at some point, there will be rolled thin film solar panels that can be applied to the purchaser's substrate (metal roof, vinyl, etc).  The price on this will probably drop to less than $1 / watt in the next decade.  However, my guess that it will be designed to have a 10-15 year lifespan, far less than the silicone based cells.

Look for higher efficiency cells in the near future.  Some manufactures (Boeing/Spectrolab/Emcore) claim 30+% efficiency.  However, the efficiency is only a measurement of the size of your panels.  A 30% efficient cell should take half the space of a 15% cell for the same amount of power.

Perhaps the biggest effects on the prices of the cells and panels will be a basic supply and demand curve (except, not quite "classic").  Right now, the demand is very low, but it overwhelms the current manufacturing capabilities.  If, however, the demand would go through the roof...  then there would be a resulting higher production, and the cost would drop (and demand would go up further).  Just think what would happen if Home Depot would start selling more solar panels than 2x4's.

Anyway, who knows.  You could buy a $5K array today then find the price is half that tomorrow.  Or, you could buy a $5K array today, and find that it jumped to $10K tomorrow.

[craig110]

While it wouldn't help your cash position, one aspect to consider is the increased value in your home and the effect of that on your balance sheet.  As long as either conventional energy sources keep getting more expensive or people want to limit CO2 emissions, homes with solar power should get a premium.  I figure that between the tax credit, doing the installation myself, and the increased value of my home that I'm not only breaking even, but am probably profitable (on the balance sheet, not in cash) before even factoring in the lowered electric bills.

Craig