I don't believe The tip-speed ratio or TSR normally figures in a load, after all, everyone's load would be different (unless you're mass producing a particular machine).
I think the overspeed issue is this: The machine is designed to furl when a given wind speed (force) is pushing on a given area (the area of the rotor). If the rotor is unloaded it will be traveling faster than if it is loaded. It could be going twice as fast unloaded.
Usually I would think you want to figure the machine is loaded when furling. It should be loaded all the time, right ? Assuming TSR is unloaded, you have to guess at how the load is going to slow the blades (50% ?) and go from there.
I'm sure you could calculate the approximate reduction in rpms for a given load, TSR, blade diameter and wind speed. I know I'm in the ball park, with a 50% margin of error.
Chuck