"Machines that are somewhat bogged down do tend to furl easier" - this statement seems quite counter intuitive at first, as surely a stalled or partly stalled prop will have less thrust and therefore less of a push against the weight of the tail, making it harder to furl.
Thinking about it though, and from my own observations of my machines, the wind seeking effect seems to be at its strongest when the actual TSR (i.e. the TSR of the prop/alternator combination in a given windspeed as opposed to the design TSR of the prop) is high. So, with a partly stalled prop, the furling "push" is reduced, but the wind seeking effect is reduced even further, resulting, as you said, in easier furling. (Whew! Does that make sense?) Interesting stuff!
"I suspect you will see the tail bend to beyond 30 deg before anything happens, then a gust will pull the prop round out of the wind and it will slow down." Spot on, that is exactly what happens. If I'm hearing you correctly, a bigger offset with a heavier tail would see the furling occur more gradually with less power drop in high winds?
I was watching my 2.7m machine a bit today as it was seeking the wind independently of the tail, and noticed turbulent sounds coming from one side of the prop or the other when the wind changed direction slightly. These noises (a bit helicopter-like but nowhere near as loud) stopped as soon as the prop was centred on the wind again.
This got me thinking, and I've come up with a theory :
When the wind shifts on a prop spinning at the right speed, the airflow stalls slightly at the tips on the side of the prop that is now slightly upwind (hence the "helicopter" noises). As a result of this, the thrust of the prop reduces on the upwind side and the greater thrust on the downwind side then pulls the prop back into the wind, so the prop is inherently wind seeking at certain speeds.
Paul.