Solar Prices. Where do you think they might be going?

[Windy11]

Just completed a wind grid-tie project last fall. Concentrated on wind for about 3 years getting it together so I'm pretty much behind on solar.

Here's the way I look at solar prices and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.  Two or three years ago the price of solar was about 4 US dollars a watt. Now the consensus is that it's about a dollar a watt and people on this board have posted websites where you can actually buy solar panels for as low as 65 cents per watt.

As far as the reason in the reduction in price, I've heard things like the Chinese over produced manufacturing and created a "glut" or whatever, (and I'm sure that there are other reasons too), but here are my concerns.

   1. If the prices are down as a result of a "Chinese glut", are they going to shoot back up?

   2. Are they going to level off at around the present prices?

   3. Can the prices get even lower in the not too distant future?

Seeing that I just turned 60 and retirment is in sight, I'm thinking that a solar grid-tie would be a good deal for me because it could knock down my utility bill anywhere from 70 to 100% for the next 25 years. 

I'm trying to figure out when would it be the right time to "Pull The Trigger"? Now or later. What do you think?

Thanks,

Andy R.

[Frank S]

Andy knowing when is the best time to pull the trigger would require a monocrystiline ball LOL
  as far as a glut that can be attributed to the media being handled. there also is a rumor of a 300% increase in import duty for solar panels being brought in from China  Whether or not there is any truth to that I have yet to discover but if it is it would make sense due to the recent failed stimulus supported Solar manufactures in the US .
 To look at this another way baseline electrical rates in many areas are going up at an ever increasing rate Solar equipment manufactures are going to eventually want to cash in on an emerging market especially since many of the electric service providers will be adding in more and more hidden costs as well.
 Also you might want to follow the tax abatement expiration schedule for renewable energy.
 This is going to be an interesting issue soon on one hand grid energy will be on the rise which will create a higher demand for solar which in turn will tend to cause the prices for panels and equipment to rise.
 On the other hand a loss of rebate or deferment will detract from the demand on supply causing the prices to go down.
 Personally is I could afford to buy a container load at current prices I would take a gamble even if I had to sit on them a while.
 I don't think prices per watt will go much below $.55 to .60 per watt in 3KW quantities without another break through in technologies

[clockmanFRA]

Windy11,    Latest from Europe.

Thought this might help.

It's the extra Taxes they shove on here that are the problem.
 The Guy at SILLIA, Brittany, France (make note TOD, perhaps we can do a raid,  ) mentioned the fact that EDF just pulled the plug on them regards subsidies, when the French Government were talked to by EDF.

But he did say that he hopes he can survive in the present market place. However, that depends on his business model and his borrowing/income forecasts.?

But me thinks if EEC enforce import duties on the Chinese PV folk, then SILLIA will just put its prices up to make a biggest profit margin possible, so PV will just rise to incorporate the EEC extra TAX on consumers.   

Thanks RIT,
     http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spot-market-price-index-solar-pv-modules.htm   l will keep a note on that site.  Nothing going on at the moment here, but we probably still need another 4 or 5 of my 2kw double axis PV Solar Trackers. We have 8 Acres of land of which 6 do not have shading issues, so will think!

Tod, From the 'Wall Street Journal' "Suntech Power Holdings have gone into bankruptcy proceedings". "LDK Solar have been in the red for 6 quarters and has net dept of 2.7$ billion". Trina Solar and Yingli Green Energy shares are up 2% and down 6% respectively. It is easy to see why investors see a brighter future for Trina and Yingli, Consolidation in the industry would help ease overcapacity. China have also announced plans for installed capacity of 10 gigawatts of PV for 2013."

Biff, In my opinion it Was China that should be thanked for giving us reasonable priced PV. If you recall 15 to 20 years ago good PV was very expensive and large corporations had a strangle hold as well as enforcing Their Patent rights.
And along came China who copied and made.   

CONCLUSION,   BUY what you can now. PV will never be so cheap in my life time.

This is from:-    http://www.navitron.org.uk/forum/index.php/topic,19705.0.html

[southpaw]

Buy them now! If you buy 10,000 watts of panels now for $ .75/watt it will cost $7500.00 If prices went to $.40/watt you could have saved $3500.00 but if they go back to $3.00/ watt will cost you $30,000.00. Your $7500.00 would only buy you 2,500 watts of panels. The cost of panels now is only a fraction of the cost of a completed installation.
My 2 cents worth.
Kurt

[Windy11]

Frank S said:

Also you might want to follow the tax abatement expiration schedule for renewable energy.

I got the 30% federal rebate on my wind project last year and got back 2400 bucks on my income tax. That was real sweet. I'm under the impression that the 30% rebate is good until 2016. Can anyone verify that?

[madlabs]

I just bought 4.3kW of panels due to all the reason mentioned, tax break set to expire and prices prolly going up. Got a decent tax refund off of them. I can't see prices going much lower in the near future. However, I needed the panels, they weren't an investment.

Jonathan

[tecker]

I purchased 2 130 Kyocera panels at $600 plus shipping in 07 . Those same panels are 300 free shipping today . I have never taken a tax credit . I lost those panels in a recent fire all the new panels are being made   $95 for materials for 125 watt.
 The panels are good so far. This summer will give enough data for me to commit to .

[xboxman]

Hi

someone ( that's a friend of coal ....so i am not buying the story) told me that the US government is paying the US solar panel company NOT to make any solar panels .
so have any of you heard any thing like this ?

thanks

[marcos1knobe]

Just bought one pallet (10 x 240 watts each) at $.65/watt and happy to have done it.  They may go lower in the short run but not by much.  Long term I think power rates will increase and likewise solar panels.  They are a good long term investment.  You lock in your power rates for the next 20 years.

[Rob Beckers]

Andy, I just read an article stating prices in Europe for PV modules went up for the first time in 4 years:

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/european-module-prices-rise-for-first-time-in-4-years_100011023/#axzz2SdB4ZQHM

One of our PV suppliers told me their cell prices had gone up recently as well (the largest cost factor in panels). They were not increasing price just yet, absorbing it by putting greater production efficiencies into effect. They are based in Ontario, though cells come from China, Korea, and Taiwan (as do 99% of cells of all manufacturers).

It looks like the days of the endless price drops may be coming to an end. I don't expect prices to go up to what they were in the bad old days, but it may well be that $1/W to $1.25/W is where it will all stabilize for some time to come.

-RoB-

[Windy11]

Thanks RoB, maybe it's about time I get my courage up again. Thanks for all you've done for me so far. Here we go for another wild ride but hey, if it's the right thing to do at the right time, what else are you supposed to do?

You guys look for my divorce in the paper.

[azjustin]

IMHO, now would probably be a great time to buy. 

Like many have said, you can't predict what's going to happen but prices seem awfully low to keep the current trend (going down).

Without getting all "conspiracy theory-ish", China's solar production is subsided to the hilt and it appears that their goal is to put everyone out of business so that they can take over global production.  If you can follow that line of thinking based on the amount of solar companies that have gone under in the last five or so years, then it looks like they are achieving their goal at an astonishing rate.

Even if that is not the case, they are set to take over the world's production if their pace is continued.  And, as with any type of subsidies (including our state and federal), they must go away at some point and then the prices go up.  That could be 20 years away, it could have been 20 minutes ago, who knows.

Just my 2c.  Good luck and have fun.

[Mary B]

Price of silver may drive panel prices higher in the future, right now it is down but that has been from paper etf sell offs and not physical silver selling. Physical silver right now is hard to find and priced quite a bit higher than the paper price you see posted online.

[Windy11]

FRANK S said:

Andy knowing when is the best time to pull the trigger would require a monocrystiline ball LOL

Agreed but after averaging out all the replies on this post about solar prices, I finally decided to pull the trigger so 2 weeks ago we put up 6Kw of panels on our garage roof. I just got the impression that the prices of panels were starting to go back up. I got in at just under 85 cents per watt.  Who knows for sure but a couple of local people, (here in central Pennsylvania) put in solar within the last year and a half and they gave me their costs so when I divided the total costs of the completed systems by the number of panels that they put up, it came out like this.

Guy No. 1. 1100 bucks per panel.

Guy No 2.  1500 bucks per panel.

Guy No 3.   900 bucks per panel.

I came out at just under 500 bucks per panel.

I'm happy. For a 6 Kw system (actually 6.8 Kw in panels but the inverter is only 6 Kw so the system is rated 6Kw,) I came in at just under 14 grand. Now I did install it myself with a friend who is an electrician who I did paid 1300 bucks so there's a savings there.

Rob Beckers designed and engineered the system so all the hard parts were already figured out.

Anyway, I think that this is helping me set up my road to retirment. (We'll see) LOL!!!!!!

We went with "Canadian solar panels" because the warrentee is through in independent insurance company so if they should go under, they are still insured.



The "Quick Mount" flashing cost a bit more but at age 60, I don't need the agravation of any water leaks. The Rails are made by "Iron Ridge".



A little "Whether Head" got us through the roof.



The 6Kw Power One inverter. Notice the 2 DC lightning arrestors on the right side and AC arestor on the bottom.

[Windy11]

FRANK S said:

Andy knowing when is the best time to pull the trigger would require a monocrystiline ball LOL

Agreed but after averaging out all the replies on this post about solar prices, I finally decided to pull the trigger so 2 weeks ago we put up 6Kw of panels on our garage roof. I just got the impression that the prices of panels were starting to go back up. I got in at just below 85 cents US a watt. Who knows for sure but a couple of local people, (here in central Pennsylvania) put in solar within the last year and a half and they gave me their costs so when I divided the total costs of the completed systems by the number of panels that they put up, it came out like this.

Guy No. 1. 1100 bucks per panel.

Guy No 2.  1500 bucks per panel.

Guy No 3.   900 bucks per panel.

I came out at just under 500 bucks per panel.

I'm happy. For a 6 Kw system (actually 6.8 Kw in panels but the inverter is only 6 Kw so the system is rated 6Kw,) I came in at just under 14 grand. Now I did install it myself with a friend who is an electrician who I did paid 1300 bucks so there's a savings there.

Rob Beckers designed and engineered the system so all the hard parts were already figured out.

Anyway, I think that this is helping me set up my road to retirment. (We'll see) LOL!!!!!!

We went with "Canadian solar panels" because the warrentee is through in independent insurance company so if they should go under, they are still insured.



The "Quick Mount" flashing cost a bit more but at age 60, I don't need the agravation of any water leaks. The Rails are made by "Iron Ridge".



A little "Whether Head" got us through the roof.



The 6Kw Power One inverter. Notice the 2 DC lightning arrestors on the right side and AC arestor on the bottom.

[Frank S]

Nice

[thirteen]

Marcos1knobe    I need to buy 8 more panels. What is the name of the240w  panels you got? I have a 24v system. I live in the Idaho, USA.  13

[OperaHouse]

Has anyone bought RENOGY panels?  I bought seven 100W modules this summer averaging about $137 each shipped.  Cheap enough I use them to heat water.  Power out is rather consistent panel to panel and produce more power % wise to rated power than my other brand name panels.

[clockmanFRA]

Hi, The Latest European prices.  I think RENOGY are RENESOLA in Europe.?

http://www.emat-uk.com/clearance
PANELS :

- 1 Mwp SOLYNDRA Serie 200 - 191Wp at 0,39€ / Wp for 300-500 Kwp or 0,40€ / Wp for 100-300 Kwp or 0,42€ / Wp for 50-100 Kwp
- 1,15 Mwp SOLYNDRA Serie 200 - 200Wp at 0,39€ / Wp for 300-500 Kwp or 0,40€ / Wp for 100-300 Kwp or 0,42€ / Wp for 50-100 Kwp
- 2 CTN LDK 200Wp mono at 0,49€ / Wp per CTN
- 6 CTN REALFORCE 255Wp poly at 0,53€ / Wp per CTN
- 2 CTN KOREAN JSPV 240Wp poly at 0,51€ / Wp per CTN
- 2 CTN NEXPOWER NT 145AX at 046€ / Wp per CTN
- 3 CTN TIANWEI 230Wp poly at 0,495€ / Wp per CTN
- 1 CTN SUNRISE 260Wp mono BLACK at 0,58€ / Wp per CTN
- 2 CTN SHARP NA-E 135 at 0,358€ / Wp per CTN (3 weeks)
- 3 CTN ZHONGJING Solar 195Wp mono at 0,54€ / Wp per CTN
 1 CTN RENESOLA 250Wp poly at 0,575€ / Wp per CTN
- 1 CTN RENESOLA 260Wp poly at 0,585€ / Wp per CTN
- 2 CTN YINGLI 245Wp poly at 0,585€ / Wp per CTN
- 100 Kwp ZN SHINE 250Wp poly BLACK at 0,59€ / Wp the lot
- 100 Kwp ZN SHINE 250Wp mono BLACK at 0,61€ / Wp the lot
- 100 Kwp CONERGY 250Wp poly (+5% bonus) at 0,594€ / Wp the lot
 7 Paletts YINGLI 250Wp poly at 0,63€ / Wp the lot
- 9 Paletts TIANWEI 245Wp poly at 0,55€ / Wp the lor
- 6 Paletts RENESOLA 245Wp poly at 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 4 Pallets SUNPOWER SRP320NE-WHT-D at 1,07€ / Wp the lot
- 3 Pallets SUNPOWER SRP327NE-WHT-D at 1,09€ / Wp the lot
- 921 Pcs JR SOLAR 245Wp poly at 0,485€ / Wp the lot
- 700 Pcs JR SOLAR 195Wp mono at 0,485€ / Wp the lot
- 388 Pcs FIRST SOLAR FS272 - 72,5Wp at 0,46€ / Wp the lot (MOQ 1 Pallet of 50 Pcs)
- 88 Pcs FIRST SOLAR FS280 - 80Wp at 0,48€ / Wp the lot
- 46 Pcs SHARP NA-F128 G5 at 0,48€ / Wp the lot
- 694 Pcs NEXPOWER NT-135 AX at 0,45€ / Wp the lot (MOQ 1 Pallet of 50 Pcs)
- 322 Pcs CHINALIGHT 195Wp mono at 0,498€ / Wp the lot
- 520 Pcs LINUO 230Wp poly at 0,508€ / Wp the lot (MOQ 1 Pallet of 50 Pcs)
- 87 Pcs ZN SHINE 235Wp poly at 0,51€ / Wp the lot
- 12 Panels SILLIA 60M245CB (60 Cellules - 245Wp - Cadre standard - Tedlar noir) at 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 21 Panels SILLIA 60M245NT (60 Cellules - 245Wp - Cadre noir - Tedlar noir) at 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 11 Panels SILLIA 60QCELLS220ET2 (60 Cellules - 220Wp - Solrif noir - Tedlar Blanc) at 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 13 Panels SILLIA 60QCELLS225ET2 (60 Cellules - 225Wp - Solrif noir - Tedlar blanc) at 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 92 Panels SILLIA 60QCELLS210NT (60 Cellules - 210Wp - Cadre standard - Tedlar balnc) at 0,57€ / Wp the lot
- 21 Panels SILLIA 60M245NT (60 Cellules - 245Wp - Cadre standard noir - Tedlar blanc) at 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 35 Panels SILLIA 60M200AT (60 Cellules - 200Wp - Cadre standard - Tedlar blanc) à 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 51 Panels SILLIA 50P190ST (50 Cellules - 190Wp - Solrif - Tedlar blanc) at 0,58€ / Wp the lot
- 20 Panels SILLIA 48M200EB (48 Cellules - 200Wp - Solrif noir - Tedlar noir) at 0,58€ / Wp, EXW the lot

- 1276 Panels Thin Film SOLIBRO CGIS Q-CELLS / Q.SMART UF L 80Wp at 0,27€ / Wp the lot
- 5997 Panels Thin Film SOLIBRO CGIS Q-CELLS / Q.SMART UF L 85Wp at 0,26€ / Wp the lot
- 1144 Panels Thin Film SOLIBRO CGIS Q-CELLS / Q.SMART UF L 90Wp at 0,27€ / Wp the lot
- 1993 Panels Thin Film SOLIBRO CGIS Q-CELLS / Q.SMART UF L 95Wp at 0,27€ / Wp the lot
- 2909 Panels Thin Film SOLIBRO CGIS Q-CELLS /SL2 80Wp at 0,26€ / Wp the lot
- 8000 Panels Thin Film SOLIBRO CGIS Q-CELLS /SL2 85Wp at 0,26€ / Wp the lot

The prices are EXW and EX VAT.
Subject to stocks availability

[thirteen]

prices seem good over there. If a person could afford it would be a good time to setup a system. Over here USA I've heard of 65c 13

[Mary B]

65 cents a watt by the pallet http://www.solarblvd.com/Solar-Panels-&-Systems-Solar-Panels-By-The-Pallet/c1_250/p2575/Lightway-Solar-230-Watt-24-Volt-Solar-Panel-P1650---10-pcs./product_info.html

[thirteen]

Thank you. 13

[Frank S]

unfortunately my budget for the remaining part of my fiscal year does not have enough left over. Hopefully prices will not climb too much by March when I set my budget for the next year. 

[WindriderNM]

Two months ago I purchased a palette (26) of 24 V 230 W Canadian panels for $.55/ watt. They were blemished panels, a few scratches on the frames they have a 25 year warranty. I purchased them from Renvu.