Remote Living > Transportation
EV Market, 20-Year Bet
george65:
--- Quote from: Bruce S on December 29, 2017, 12:34:34 PM ---So,,
When you say EV's , how many Wheels? 2,34, or more? Land only?
--- End quote ---
It's a good Clarification given we are seeing Tesla doing another flag waving exercise with a truck even though as yet it has no substance and is short on critical details.
Also interesting to ponder if personal transport will go 3 wheels. Personally can't see it. Been tried before and had stability problems and in these days of crash safety etc, I think the likelihood is to stick with 4 wheels.
Maybe instead of wheels, the weight may be a better indicator? Here up to 4000Kg is able to be driven on a car license. After that it's another license for Light truck with 2 more up to semi and then 2 trailers call B double. After that there is road train.
--- Quote ---Agreed, it's hard to pick a target, not two, three, or more which just confuses the matter. So I picked one.
And I figured this was at least 1 thing we could agree on.
--- End quote ---
I'll take the bet 80% of vehicle production/ sales will still be IC in 20 years but I would not agree to call the EV saturation anything but still a minority at that point.
Given the sheer numbers rather than the semantics, seems we are in agreement after all.
20% of the personal transport fleet as I think we all understand it now does pose the question IF the grid can keep up with the added load of EV demand.
Clearly some ( few) places have excess capacity but a lot more do not. I wonder what sort of extra electrical load 20% of the fleet will equate to in overall grid demand?
It's not as straightforward as saying the grid or private PV will Keep up, here the subsidies are being reduced and the amount of panels that can be erected is being limited. In addition the proclivity of the greenwashed that Coal power stations are the devil on earth and all must be shut down tomorrow means the supply of power is not going to increase here and a lot of other places I read of any time soon.
The logical solution would be to adapt a Hong Kong type policy on Vehicles. There you have to have someone come out and inspect you have off street parking to get a permit to buy a vehicle. With Ev's maybe the criteria would be you had to have enough PV or wind generation to supply the power for your EV. Even if the thing was at work, your home would still be inputting enough or slightly more to compensate for what it used therefore lessening the load on the grid and ensuring the green renewable criteria was met.
Trouble I see here is the potential for power companies and Gubbermints to miss out on some revenue but I'm sure as Ev's become a significant enough number that there is more to be made from the revenue than it costs to collect it, some new tax will be levied that will bring the cost of EV ownership to that similar to the cost of an IC as we pay now.
paara:
Theta are some Opel Amperas (same car as Chevrolet bolt, since Opel was inntil recently owned by Chevrolet) The car was very popular with lots og preorders, but Chevrolet is not able to deliver cars. Chevrolet preferes to sell the Bolt in the US, with losses due to emissions rulles, rather then export to abroad markeres. The wait for an ampera is 1-2years I belive, and thus its popularity has crashed. In additon they have increased the price several times after people have already signed contracts for the car. And Chevrolet has sold Opel making everything even more complicated.
There are even more hybrids/phev then EV (new sales)
george65:
I looked up the leaf. $55K here. Tesla 3 , $156K.
Ev's represent terrible value for money in comparison to IC cars and the fuel savings are not anywhere near amortized over the life of the vehicle.
Something to remember with Ev's is while they are being developed and improved, so are IC vehicles. Their economy, performance and reliability is constantly getting better and there is a lot more acceptance of them in the marketplace as well. Production Diesel Vehicles get amazing economy. My brother in laws 4WD Nissan ute carrys 4 people and tows 3.5 ton and on it's own will do over 800 Km on a tank that isn't all that big. Other EV size Diesels like the golf amoung many others also get economy not imagined years ago.
The other thing that may work against ev's is the manufacturers themselves.
It was already mentioned that not all dealers are wanting to sell EV's because of the lack of servicing.
I doubt the auto industry is going to do a Kodak and push a technology that effectively sinks it's own ship. I can see much more profit in developing IC vehicles to compete with EV's ( if they really have to) than doing a whole new tech with little to no back end.
Of course then you have the oil industry as well whom won't be sitting on their hands while their stock prices fall and their shareholders cry Bloody Murder.
The whole EV thing is a very big picture well beyond emissions and the main stream features pushed.
jlsoaz:
--- Quote from: paara on December 30, 2017, 01:31:30 AM ---Theta are some Opel Amperas (same car as Chevrolet bolt, since Opel was inntil recently owned by Chevrolet) The car was very popular with lots og preorders, but Chevrolet is not able to deliver cars. Chevrolet preferes to sell the Bolt in the US, with losses due to emissions rulles, rather then export to abroad markeres. The wait for an ampera is 1-2years I belive, and thus its popularity has crashed. In additon they have increased the price several times after people have already signed contracts for the car. And Chevrolet has sold Opel making everything even more complicated.
There are even more hybrids/phev then EV (new sales)
--- End quote ---
Thanks Paara. I have read about how Chevrolet is in effect pushing away Bolt sales in Europe,... .good to get this added report.
I am getting confused by the naming. It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV], just going by this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt
Yes, the sale of Opel itself has confused matters further. Do you know if there is a good website where I can see Norwegian BEV and PHEV sales? I'll take a look around.
george65:
--- Quote from: jlsoaz on December 30, 2017, 10:45:04 AM ---I am getting confused by the naming. It used to be that the "Opel Ampera" [PHEV] meant the Chevy Volt [PHEV], but now I see the Chevy Bolt [BEV] is called the "Ampera-e" [BEV],
--- End quote ---
Probably getting confused by all the needless acronyms.
They are either hybrids or EV's.
All the other add ons is just useless, annoying BS.
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