Author Topic: EV Market, 20-Year Bet  (Read 44588 times)

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Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #165 on: April 22, 2021, 04:36:22 PM »
Mary B;
MY pie-eye view is that Internal combustion will continue to evolve back to where it was in the early decades where they can once again use different blends.
Your vehicle can burn E85 with noting more than a "chip" change.
I upgraded our 2007 V6 Van to be able to bun it with a mere $600USD install of a sensing unit.
 
Hydrocarbon fuels still carry a boat load of energy.

Bruce S
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MattM

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #166 on: April 22, 2021, 09:22:00 PM »
If you're pushing EV technology to lower emissions, then look first at the main polluters.  Trains and ships are disproportionately high polluters BUT are extremely high efficiency on a basis per ton transported.  EV technology has the highest rate of return on emissions.  Sure the automobile emits pollution, but each car is highly controlled and it takes much more effort across the fleet to cut much further.

JW

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #167 on: April 22, 2021, 10:05:11 PM »

Quote from: Bruce
Once our server(s) migration(s) is/are stable I may post up in a more appropriate area "The PUB" maybe.

Just as a side note we scraped the program with the dedicated server, as we entered the process there were to many pitfalls. we are running on old reliable as we have done for years. Were solid and are complete with any server work. Its funny because if we wouldn't have been redundant approach we would crashed by now. Techadmin and I are are off to other projects and fieldlines is optimized and were up and are in good shape. All needed things are done. Were paid up for our hosting for three years.

Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #168 on: April 23, 2021, 08:48:09 AM »

Quote from: Bruce
Once our server(s) migration(s) is/are stable I may post up in a more appropriate area "The PUB" maybe.

Just as a side note we scraped the program with the dedicated server, as we entered the process there were to many pitfalls. we are running on old reliable as we have done for years. Were solid and are complete with any server work. Its funny because if we wouldn't have been redundant approach we would crashed by now. Techadmin and I are are off to other projects and fieldlines is optimized and were up and are in good shape. All needed things are done. Were paid up for our hosting for three years.

JW
Good to know.
In the world of Public safety down time should be all but non-existent. We count up time in years not days/months.
We just decommissioned a server that was here when I arrived. Virtual has come along way since I first started working with it. The newer stuff can now auto-sense issues and move virtual drives to another physical and almost no one would even be able to tell the difference.

This also leads to less energy used to keep the server happy and cool  8).
 Using the newer servers and virtualization, we can  shut down the A/C system and keep the room cooled using a 5000 BTU window unit if we wanted to (AND if they weren't so wasteful energy wise).

Cheers
Bruce S
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SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #169 on: April 23, 2021, 09:01:26 AM »

Quote from: JW

Quote from: Bruce
Once our server(s) migration(s) is/are stable I may post up in a more appropriate area "The PUB" maybe.

Just as a side note we....

Sure thing Bruce.
It's at this point you must realize you are off topic ;)

Here we are talking about energy supply and vehicles of the WHOLE WORLD but that doesn't seem broad enough for you!  :D
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it. Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.
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Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #170 on: April 23, 2021, 04:21:46 PM »
SparWeb;
Apologies for going off topic again  :-[.
It has been a long week.


I appreciate your understanding in this manner.

Sincerely
Bruce S
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SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #171 on: April 23, 2021, 06:46:21 PM »
It's Friday.  Put it all behind you.
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it. Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.
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jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #172 on: April 25, 2021, 01:48:13 PM »
Mary B;
MY pie-eye view is that Internal combustion will continue to evolve back to where it was in the early decades where they can once again use different blends.
Your vehicle can burn E85 with noting more than a "chip" change.
I upgraded our 2007 V6 Van to be able to bun it with a mere $600USD install of a sensing unit.
 
Hydrocarbon fuels still carry a boat load of energy.

Bruce S

For what it's worth:

My impression has been that a large number of stakeholders in, and followers of, the nascent worldwide electric vehicle industry have bought into the idea that we will see a complete or near-complete end to the internal combustion engine light duty road-going vehicle, and probably a reduction in such engines for heavier vehicles, in the next few decades.   Some of these folks are newcomers, and some have been around awhile. 

For perspective: I'm bearing in mind that we're talking about changes (that are already moderate and are becoming major) in an industry that has something like USD $2 Trillion in revenues per year, just on the new vehicles alone. Maybe more than that.  [My number could be way off... I'm just multiplying ballpark new vehicle numbers times ballpark average price.]

As for my own view of the next few decades, I tend to believe that one of the key arguments for mandatory retention of ICVs (in heavier land-based vehicles) is pretty weak, in my fallible view: it is not true that BEVS cannot haul heavy loads, or go somewhat long distances along roads, or do so with reasonable up-front costs.  Much of the economics and engineering is either already there, or seems to be on track to get where it needs to be, to be competitive, or superior.  There are some areas where hydrocarbons (or hydrogen, or other fuels) still seem to make sense, such as long-distance passenger air travel.  I won't try to figure that out right now.  I'm just saying that sometimes the assumptions against BEVs (such as that conventional semi+trailer must be nat gas powered or the like) are not fully strong IMO.

However, even with that said, I tend to believe it's possible (though not guaranteed) we will see enough roadgoing light duty internal combustion engine vehicles sticking around, for a few decades if not longer, to surprise the more dismissive of the BEV industry proponents.  The Black Swan I am focused on is if capable parties make at least somewhat widely available a zero-net-carbon-emission synthetic hydrocarbon (or similar) liquid fuel.  I do believe these have already been invented (or close), though not driven down in cost nor made available in volume.

What if, for example, I owned a really spectacular internal combustion engine vehicle that I had no interest in parking in order to use a BEV.  Wouldn't I be willing to pay for plentiful amounts of such a fuel, if the choice I end up with is either use that fuel or drive a BEV?  If I get the go-ahead to buy that fuel, and if my internal combustion engine powered vehicle (or PHEV) is really preferred by me, then yes, depending on a few other factors (such as availability and price of the fuel, and upkeep on my ICV, and local municipal clean air regulations) I might well choose to keep driving the ICV, even if others look down on it for this or that reason, such as if they consider it to be a Rube Goldberg Device, or see it as an unwise expense, or an unwise efficiency problem, etc.  It's hard for me to know, with confidence, what would or will happen if such a fuel is made available.  I haven't been able to find much traction on a robust conversation about this, and it's challenging to develop one's thoughts in that case.  I think the considerations would include timing of the technology (a fuel introduced now in some parts of the worldwide market would have different meaning than if introduced after ICV new vehicle sales bans have taken effect) and that a key advantage of such a technology would be that, arguably, it might (?) help reduce carbon dioxide footprint of  some travel in that the vehicle could still be old and so not have the carbon accounting footprint of additional recycling and such, through additional generations of vehicle.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2021, 02:00:49 PM by jlsoaz »

Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #173 on: April 26, 2021, 02:49:25 PM »
One of the major stumbling blocks is going to be power lines. Grid out where I am is 60 year old falling apart junk that already fails constantly, in fact a line went down last night 1/4 mile east of me(nice light show at 4AM!!!). That is the main distribution to all the small towns out here, poles are rotted, insulators are 60 years old, hardware is 60 years old, the span that failed last night has EIGHT splices in it... almost all the spans are spliced... and the entire 3 county area fed by this sub grid is in just as bad of condition.

Many parts of the country are in the same boat. It will cost $billions to upgrade and improve the grid. Who eats that cost? ALL electricity users! Dosn't matter if they drive a battery powered vehicle!

Some economic fallout people are not looking at, new power plants too, current ones are near max load, the new coal plant near me that was half constructed was abandoned as not economically feasible with the taxes the green energy people want to tack on.

Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #174 on: April 28, 2021, 09:36:38 AM »
jlsoaz;
Nice post! Yours and Mary B's brings us back the bet the OP has up.
A main part of the reason that people just can't quickly jump to EVs or BEVs is
Pricing
The ability to "trust" that they can charge the vehicle in a timely manner (Infrastructure)
Perception


The used vehicle market is ripe with nasty polluting used oil burners and can be bought far less than a EV or hybrid. I remember the hype that went into the "cash-for-clunkers" deal. Great Idea to get all those oil burners off the road, IF it had worked.

"TRUST" is a hard one to win. As Mary B stated and I've seen when I was a field service person. There's a whole lot of GRID lines out there that should've been replaced years ago (More like decades ago). All my family that owns farms have backup systems (That I helped size) because of this very problem, and they're all in the middle states were a -20F with a 30mph wind is rare.

Perception>> When you have this shark skinned suit "politician" telling you this is "is prefect you all" while they don't adhere to it in the 1st place.
This isn't just something is only here in the USA either. 

AS I've stated before: I really like my Hybrid! I like the quietness of the electric system, I like all gadgets that are at my finger tips (Which is making it safer for the those riding with me) . I LOVE the fact that I'm spending 1/4th in fuel from even I hyper-miled in my cobalt .
When we go with a four-wheeled  EV I will reconfigure part of our solar setup as a charging station.
Years back we owned a 48Vdc scooter that was "modded" that so impressed the people at Shaw's Garden here in StL they let our daughter park in with the grounds-keeper's battery based carts . AND was their push to get charging stations installed in their parking lot(s).


Cheers
Bruce S 

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Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #175 on: April 28, 2021, 01:31:36 PM »
And power failed AGAIN last night... same span but other end... they need to replace the wires but it is a 40 mile run off a big substation(25kv drop off a 110kv main line). I noticed they do have trucks there still... one is holding the center of the span up so that span may finally be to short to splice again. I saw a span they had replaced, the steel carrier core was rusted through! Just the copper wrap holding it up. Copper stretches... especially as windy as it is here, 18mph average, 20-30 is common and we call it a breeze, start getting to 40 it is a windy day! 12mph right now, gusts to 16...  pretty calm day for here

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMNECHOT2/graph/2021-04-28/2021-04-28/daily

Usually online, unless the computer loses power or it crashes. I need to get an Arduino or some other micro to run the weather station server. Weather station is a Davis Vantage View Pro with aspirated temperature sensor mounted way to close to the west wall of my house. It was a mid winter quick install... need to move it this summer. Wind sensor is 27 feet above ground on the side of one of my ham radio towers. Where the temp sensor sits right now is 4' above a concrete tower base and about 5' from the house wall so this summer temps won't be accurate.

SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #176 on: April 29, 2021, 12:24:16 AM »
Vantage Pro is pretty good - most components are replaceable as they break (and they will).  I think I have done half a dozen repairs since I put mine up in 2012.  Since a Wx station is a bunch of sensitive sensors out in the worst of the elements, I can forgive some breakdowns.  I'd like to know if the cheaper ones are even more likely to break down.  Would I have given up by now...

I see your data dropped out from your first outage from the 20th to the 23rd.  Do you find that your datalink needs a lot of hands-on to get it rebooted?  I often have to power it down (batteries out, unplug, count to 30, stand on one foot) to get it to start up properly after some outages.

Do you see the "galloping" wires syndrome on the power lines out there?
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it. Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.
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clockmanFRA

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #177 on: April 29, 2021, 03:31:16 AM »
Nice chat from the US Presedent early hours of this morning.

Seems he has been reading this topic and wants to install a better electricity infrastructure to support all those electric cars and he says he is going to install loads of EV charging stations.

At least your top officialdom in the USA are now talking about a future.   Here in Europe, well that has a long way to go.

Recently a Paris university did a project on 'what if all planes flying out of Paris CDG airport were electric'?  It turns out that France would need to install another 16 Nuclear Power electric generating just to give enough for one day.

In the UK from start to operating, big power stations need about 10 years planning and constructing.

All those EV's being charged at night, i doubt very much that any Countries infrastructure and generating capacity will be able to cope when every one is forced to have electric transport. ?     
Everything is possible, just give me time.

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Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #178 on: April 29, 2021, 09:48:27 AM »
Nice chat from the US Presedent early hours of this morning.

Seems he has been reading this topic and wants to install a better electricity infrastructure to support all those electric cars and he says he is going to install loads of EV charging stations.


SOooo the link I sent finally made it's way up the chain!? good.

IF they don't do anything but replace the aged wire, then that'll go a long way to being able to support the coming loads. Otherwise they'll need to go read some of Asimov's Analog Science letters/stories and put SAT's in GEO_orbit and start beaming Microwaves down the power stations too.  ;D

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Bruce S
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Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #179 on: April 29, 2021, 01:45:43 PM »
Vantage Pro is pretty good - most components are replaceable as they break (and they will).  I think I have done half a dozen repairs since I put mine up in 2012.  Since a Wx station is a bunch of sensitive sensors out in the worst of the elements, I can forgive some breakdowns.  I'd like to know if the cheaper ones are even more likely to break down.  Would I have given up by now...

I see your data dropped out from your first outage from the 20th to the 23rd.  Do you find that your datalink needs a lot of hands-on to get it rebooted?  I often have to power it down (batteries out, unplug, count to 30, stand on one foot) to get it to start up properly after some outages.

Do you see the "galloping" wires syndrome on the power lines out there?

The drop out is the old PC the weather station is on, I also use it at the test bench and if I push the video to hard it shuts down with no errors logged. Gotta love old computer hardware with weird failure modes.. it reboots fine and runs fine after a shutdown.

The wires here are spaced to stop the galloping wire thing, only see it during heavy ice events when the ice lets loose on one span and it sends a wave down the line. Can actually see the pole tops move when that happens. And it flings the ice off as the wave moves. Can go 6-8 spans before losing to much energy.

Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #180 on: April 29, 2021, 01:49:32 PM »
Heinlein's book "Friday". They have shipstones powering everything, a form of power generation/storage that lasts for many many years... that is what we need. A breakthrough in battery storage to sock away power when it is available and release it when the grid needs it. Current battery tech is not up to the task.

Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #181 on: April 30, 2021, 08:56:22 AM »
Heinlein's book "Friday". They have shipstones powering everything, a form of power generation/storage that lasts for many many years... that is what we need. A breakthrough in battery storage to sock away power when it is available and release it when the grid needs it. Current battery tech is not up to the task.
That's the other BOOK!! I knew I'd read it somewhere else besides the original Buck Rodgers in the 25th Century and Asimov's Analog Science mags!!

Thanks for the book reference!

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Bruce S 
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SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #182 on: May 22, 2021, 12:20:15 AM »
Apologies in advance for the hyped language.  It's just marketing for now. 
That's all it's going to be until the product hits the road.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/05/f-150-lightning-fords-first-electric-truck/618932/
No one believes the theory except the one who developed it. Everyone believes the experiment except the one who ran it.
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Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #183 on: May 24, 2021, 10:04:26 AM »
Pretty good write-up.
I've never been one to purchase a new vehicle or product line.

One item I'd like to see more detailed info about will be charging and whether or not they will attempt to implement wireless charging.
Fleet users will have to contend with these new trucks having charging cables lying about and some in-a-hurry "person" driving off without unplugging first.
Similar to that "person" who jumps in starts the truck and slams it into drive, without even 30seconds of warm-up.

I do like the pricing  :D.

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Bruce S
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Simen

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #184 on: May 26, 2021, 06:10:08 AM »
Bruce; no electric cars (that i know of) engages the power to the motor while there is a charge-cable attached... Not even my old Citroën Saxo electique from 1999... :)

Though, i've done it with my camper, with 'shore-power' connected... :o
I will accept the rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. - (R. A. Heinlein)

Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #185 on: May 26, 2021, 08:57:41 AM »
Simen;
 I've seen a few Apparatuses that "forgot" to disengage the shore power before heading out on a run.

Makes for a bad start to the day :-/

Good to know they locked that "Oops" out!!

Thanks
Bruce S

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tanner0441

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #186 on: May 26, 2021, 02:58:46 PM »
Hi

I read on AOL the other night that Mercedes have brought out a fully electric model 250 to 270 miles range that can charge to 80% of charge in 20 mins. how do they to that?  100Kw charging station.... Dont need many of those in a rural location where the grid has been in place since the 50s or 60s.

Won't need to clear the snow of the foot path the underground cables will be warm enough to stop it settling.

Brian

jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #187 on: June 19, 2021, 05:32:54 PM »
I have lost track of whether anyone has posted a number for 2020, number of passenger EVs sold on earth, as a percent of all passenger vehicles.  The number I am seeing in a couple of spots for 2020 for passenger EVs is 3.1 million.  This is one example though one has to dig for the actual number.

https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

I disclose some relation.

I'm not sure, offhand, as to the total number of passenger vehicles sold on Earth.  Usually this link has a credible number, so I"ll take it for now, to calculate percentage:

https://www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/

according to that link, in 2020, there were 53,598,846 passenger vehicle sales, and 24,372,388 commercial vehicle sales in 2020, for a total of 77,971,234.

3.1m passenger EV divided by 53,598,846 all passenger vehicle sales = approximately 5.7%.  Maybe someone else has seen a different number.

This may seem high, but I think part of the story for 2020 was that (particularly in Europe?) overall new vehicle sales struggled but new EV sales weathered the storm better.


Bruce S

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #188 on: June 21, 2021, 09:02:46 AM »
Some of the cool stuff coming out on the EV market are single person (Single seater) EV with a long range distance exceeding 100 miles. Others are 3-wheeled so drivers in the USA need a motorcycle license.

The prices are still a bit to high for the smaller space, but still on track for today's vehicle prices.


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Bruce S

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Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #189 on: June 21, 2021, 01:00:03 PM »
Now an enclosed 3 wheeler with enough cargo capacity to do one of my 2 week town runs... that I might consider. Keep the SUV for winter use...

jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #190 on: June 26, 2021, 05:06:01 PM »
Now an enclosed 3 wheeler with enough cargo capacity to do one of my 2 week town runs... that I might consider. Keep the SUV for winter use...

There are some interesting things going on in this area.  I have never been in any of these, but just to take a few minutes to summarize my thoughts:

- Regarding the three-wheelers EVs, these two seem to come up a fair amount, in part because they are both public listed companies in the US:
https://www.arcimoto.com/
https://electrameccanica.com
Both of these are from the US Pacific Northwest/Canada Pacific Southwest area, though I don't know if that ensures they can handle your climate.  Top speeds if I recall are in the 80 mph range, so they are not just low speed machines.

- There's a four-wheeler single-seater, also in the US Pacific Northwest, also decent highway speeds, that was invented 15 or 20 or 30 years ago or so, and the purpose was interestingly not to create an EV, but to address traffic congestion issues.  Somehow though it has missed out on the US public listing and investment in EVs boom, and as far as I know is not doing too much to make vehicles, and if you did want one I'm guessing it would be expensive.  Still, I have always liked what little I know of their proposed product.  They are here:
http://www.commutercars.com/

There are a couple more I know of that I'm not big fans of, for reasons of safety or other concerns. 

clockmanFRA

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #191 on: June 27, 2021, 05:30:13 AM »
Very interesting jlsoaz.

http://www.commutercars.com/

Especially this design structure.



My feelings about electric car are at present extremely negative.

The only commercial big manufacture that gets close to being sort of okay is the Nissan Leaf.

Most car manufacturers are still using petrol and diesel engine technologies basic car design for the main structure.  It’s obvious why, because its just a swap out and put an electric motor in and add a battery somewhere. Basically, this way of manufacturing, in my opinion, it’s a poor design.
 
I remember talking with some Mechanical Engineers, all senior types getting ready for retirement, Electric cars came up in the discussion, and all of them said, “the problem is Les, that all commercial manufacturers just use ready standard software design programs, and from this they just tweak the design each time, and we doubt very much if any of the big boys actually have engineers that could design from scratch a true electric vehicle. “
 
However, in the last few years independent electric car manufacturers are arising.  And this design has made me look at the whole concept of the electric car.

This particular concept is not the standard monocoque design, but it’s thought out, with a strong steel frame structure, with a light skin, and very importantly all the weight is very low so it is very stable.
 
Yea, yea its no manhood symbol and not pretty like a Ferrari, but hell, its easy to repair and service, keeps you warm and dry, and it can go.  It also uses minimal materials so it ticks that box.   But the batteries are standard commercially obtainable and  are very expensive, but that can be sorted.

Any way it’s interesting with clever design.  I suspect the big boys will try and crush development, and stick their big feet in the EU approval system. But heck it’s a start. 
Everything is possible, just give me time.

OzInverter man. Normandy France.
http://www.bryanhorology.com/renewable-energy-creation.php

3 Hugh P's 3.7m Wind T's (12 years) .. 5kW PV on 3 Trackers, (8 yrs) .. 9kW PV AC coupled to OzInverter MINI Grid, back charging AC Coupling to 48v 1300ah battery

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #192 on: June 27, 2021, 05:52:19 AM »

« Last Edit: June 27, 2021, 06:04:04 AM by Scruff »

Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #193 on: June 27, 2021, 02:26:14 PM »
Now an enclosed 3 wheeler with enough cargo capacity to do one of my 2 week town runs... that I might consider. Keep the SUV for winter use...

There are some interesting things going on in this area.  I have never been in any of these, but just to take a few minutes to summarize my thoughts:

- Regarding the three-wheelers EVs, these two seem to come up a fair amount, in part because they are both public listed companies in the US:
https://www.arcimoto.com/
https://electrameccanica.com
Both of these are from the US Pacific Northwest/Canada Pacific Southwest area, though I don't know if that ensures they can handle your climate.  Top speeds if I recall are in the 80 mph range, so they are not just low speed machines.

- There's a four-wheeler single-seater, also in the US Pacific Northwest, also decent highway speeds, that was invented 15 or 20 or 30 years ago or so, and the purpose was interestingly not to create an EV, but to address traffic congestion issues.  Somehow though it has missed out on the US public listing and investment in EVs boom, and as far as I know is not doing too much to make vehicles, and if you did want one I'm guessing it would be expensive.  Still, I have always liked what little I know of their proposed product.  They are here:
http://www.commutercars.com/

There are a couple more I know of that I'm not big fans of, for reasons of safety or other concerns.

Interesting, looks like neither is actually delivering vehicles yet... that Delivery one form Arcimoto would fit the bill if it had doors...

jlsoaz

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #194 on: November 10, 2021, 10:29:14 AM »
So who thinks EV's are serious contenders for transportation in the future?  Who thinks they're a fad?

Here's my wager:
400 bucks says EV's will make up 20% of the world auto production in 20 years

I am willing to take up George on his bet, if we can agree on the winning criteria.  20 years is a pretty safe time frame - enough time for several car model generations to come and go, perhaps a few manufacturer names to come and go too...  If a market for EV's is going to establish itself, then in 20 years it should be reaching maturity.  If it's a flop, then in 20 years it will still just be nibbling at the margins.  So I agree that's a good time frame to judge success/failure. 
[...]

here is some of the latest on the EV market numbers:

https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-headed-for-five-and-a-half-million-in-2021-as-automakers-target-40-million-per-year-by-2030/
Electric Vehicle Sales Headed For Five And A Half Million In 2021 As Automakers Target 40 Million Per Year By 2030
November 10, 2021



40 million per year, in the present market of ~80m-100m roadgoing vehicles per year (depending on whether commercial are counted) is well beyond the 20% of the bet. 

Neither the bet terms (note: I did not bet anyone) nor this headline clarify if PHEVs are counted.

My wild-guessing;
I'm thinking if PHEVs are counted, then the bet terms will be satisfied within about 6 years of the bet (by the end of 2024).  If PHEVs are not counted, then still, wild-guessing, I think 20% of new vehicle sales will be a mark the world hits overall sooner than 2030, if not well before.  (Technically the bet is to December 28, 2037).

Separate, but related: Australia belatedly partly coming around:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/09/what-is-the-morrison-governments-electric-vehicles-policy-and-will-it-actually-drive-take-up
What is the Morrison government’s electric cars policy – and will it actually drive take-up?
Scott Morrison says it’s about ‘choices, not mandates’, so what’s in and what’s left out of the Coalition’s EV and future fuels strategy?
    Sarah Martin: In a galling pivot, Scott Morrison hopes he can peek under the bonnet of an EV and be accepted as a convert
    What is the Morrison government’s electric cars policy – and will it actually drive take-up?
Royce Kurmelovs
Tue 9 Nov 2021 08.58 GMT



Mary B

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #195 on: November 10, 2021, 01:07:29 PM »
Still a massive lack of charging stations outside metro areas/interstate corridors and I don't see that changing much in 9 years...

bigrockcandymountain

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #196 on: November 10, 2021, 08:24:44 PM »
Here i see charging stations everywhere you would need them and no electric cars. 

I can't really explain why, but i love the idea of an electric retrofit in some old car. I really like the simplicity of an electric motor and batteries.  I think if you could retrofit a decent old chassis for say $10 000, even if it didn't have a long range, people might do it for a commuter car.  I would definitely do it.  I'm usually pretty out of touch with the main population though. 

I did some quick research, and electric cars are getting from 14kwh/100km to 30kwh/100km.  I'm starting to think that with a bit bigger solar array and bit higher output turbine, we may have the power for it.  We do maybe 200km a week so 4 to 8 kwh per day.  That doesn't sound so bad to me. 

I like a stick shift.  I wonder if an electric motor would pair well with a 5 speed. 

SparWeb

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Re: EV Market, 20-Year Bet
« Reply #197 on: November 10, 2021, 09:21:28 PM »
The charging stations I see are all associated with services like malls and fuel stations that want to add a little + to the service they offer.  I am seeing more and more Teslas on the road, and now I also notice Ioniqs and that boxy Kia thing.  Not many Leafs, still, but the Leaf never got over the bad reputation in cold climate.  If these aren't common where you live, Mary, no surprise you aren't seeing the charging stations, either.  Which we all know is a chicken-and-egg kind of problem.

Quote
  I wonder if an electric motor would pair well with a 5 speed.

Probably not.  The gears in a ICE car are necessary because the torque curve (NOT the power curve) is a peak.  The torque curve of an electric motor (the kind for traction service) is pretty flat through a wide range.  So many EV's don't need to mechanically change gears because the motor has an effective range of operation between 0-10,000 RPM which allows a single gear reduction to drive it at all speeds.  There are many tricks to modify this so that the motor doesn't get hot and blow up running at high speed for a long time.

When I go EV, I know I will say goodbye to my 6-speed stick forever.  One sad part to an overall good experience, I hope.

A few years ago, I spent a lot of time on this form (shhh... don't tell the Fieldlines people): https://www.diyelectriccar.com/forums/
There are lots and lots of custom-built EV's from conventional cars.  Early 2000's Honda Civic is very popular as a starting point.

Another thing growing in popularity is conversion of Classic american autos to electric.  They don't drive far, hard to get engine parts. When it's on show many owners just close the hood and say "yeah it still runs".

How would you like an electric Mustang?  http://www.evalbum.com/733
Or do you have more refined taste? http://www.evalbum.com/3287

Last thing to add.  I try not to get too excited about this.  But I can't stop thinking about it...  You see, there's a little crack developing in the engine block of my Acura TSX.  It's just small now and the mechanic barely noticed it last year.  It isn't leaking, but if it ever lets go...  Gee aw shucks I'll have this nice car with a blown motor.  Darn.  Then what will I do???
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