EV Market, 20-Year Bet

[Mary B]

EV's are not ready for cold climates yet... so pass. I have to drive to far in really cold weather to risk it. And lack of charging stations makes it worse.

Ford is coming out with(may be out) an EV conversion kit you can drop into an older car. Some even let you use the manual transmission for a wider speed range without having to run the motor to max speeds

Mach E motor https://performanceparts.ford.com/part/M-9000-MACHE

Have to get wiring harness and motor control electronics but they are starting to offer it.

[SparWeb]

Woah, 317 ft-lb.  That would do a number on the transmission if you bolted it to your grandmother's Taurus.  [heh]

If you are converting a gasoline car, then take the car's stock gasoline engine power and torque curves as the starting point to match up a suitable electric motor.
For a small sedan with a 4-cylinder engine that's going to be about 150 to 200 ft-pounds.  Best not to go past that, or you could ruin the old tranny.

This would do:
https://www.evwest.com/catalog/product_info.php?cPath=8&products_id=482&osCsid=l27a9nhdal3b4cu9mukh7srev5

Comparing electric motor specs to gas engines is deceptive.  The torque from an electric motor is at its peak at ZERO RPM and drops off as it spins up.  That leaves you doing the math and finding that "huh it doesn't have much power" and you're sort-of right, because at 4000 RPM the torque is less than half of its peak.  Compare that to a gasoline engine when it's at 4000 RPM.  Its torque is at the peak, so you calculate twice as much power.  Well, that's true enough, but for all the time you spend NOT driving like you're on a racetrack, annoying your passengers, you don't drive like that.  Even if you down-shift to get the engine to 4000 RPM before you speed up, you probably don't floor it, which is the only way to get the engine to produce rated torque.  So most of the time people drive nowhere near the edges of their car's performance envelope.

[MattM]

Could be fun to deck out a muscle car with plenty of motor to peel the sidewalls off the tires.

[Mary B]

Woah, 317 ft-lb.  That would do a number on the transmission if you bolted it to your grandmother's Taurus.  [heh]

If you are converting a gasoline car, then take the car's stock gasoline engine power and torque curves as the starting point to match up a suitable electric motor.
For a small sedan with a 4-cylinder engine that's going to be about 150 to 200 ft-pounds.  Best not to go past that, or you could ruin the old tranny.

This would do:
https://www.evwest.com/catalog/product_info.php?cPath=8&products_id=482&osCsid=l27a9nhdal3b4cu9mukh7srev5

Comparing electric motor specs to gas engines is deceptive.  The torque from an electric motor is at its peak at ZERO RPM and drops off as it spins up.  That leaves you doing the math and finding that "huh it doesn't have much power" and you're sort-of right, because at 4000 RPM the torque is less than half of its peak.  Compare that to a gasoline engine when it's at 4000 RPM.  Its torque is at the peak, so you calculate twice as much power.  Well, that's true enough, but for all the time you spend NOT driving like you're on a racetrack, annoying your passengers, you don't drive like that.  Even if you down-shift to get the engine to 4000 RPM before you speed up, you probably don't floor it, which is the only way to get the engine to produce rated torque.  So most of the time people drive nowhere near the edges of their car's performance envelope.

Note to self: Don't invite Spar for a ride LOL I DO drive like a racetrack... bad habit from my racing days! That Ford motor is for muscle car or old truck conversions. Not for the little 4 bangers!

[Bruce S]

I'm with Mary B on this one! I come from the days of Nova's with 350 or small block 400s. Olds Omega with a 455 decked with a 650 double pumper and Mopar Roadrunner with a 383 magnum driving days & Pro-stock trips down the track.
Still do in my mind's eye. 
Honestly!!! I've looked at the EVs and I'll stick with my Hybrid for the near future Replacements battery packs are actually dropping in comparable prices (don't need one yet )still got 25K+ miles worth of warranty left on my current pack.
I do have the Aptera waiting in the wings (meaning my turn isn't here yet)
The heat pump touted in the Tesla is only has good as any true heat-pump, meaning once you're down in the single digits there's no heat to siphon.

There's still hope

Bruce S

[SparWeb]

Still slow to be adopted in the US.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/12/23721484/electric-vehicles-ev-car-dealerships-united-states-sierra-club-survey

One setback in EV adoption is the continuing production problems in the global supply chain.  This is only slowly getting better.

https://www.cars.com/articles/is-the-inventory-shortage-coming-to-an-end-460943/

I'm personally back to looking for my next car, still trying to make it electric, as long as it will fit my life.  Used car prices starting to come down gives me some hope of finding a good enough deal that I can afford an EV useful enough that it can be a daily driver, even in winter.

Hyundai Ioniq comparison test-drive of EV versus Hybrid.

Yesterday I test-drove a 2019 Ioniq EV version and a 2020 hybrid version.  For the hybrid I can only say "ugh no" it's a lame automatic with a lot of "mush" in all axes.  Mushy steering, mushy braking and mushy acceleration so it's only suitable for your grandmother, or keeping a lead-footed teenager alive. 

The EV had a bit more perk, and with the paddle-shifters I had the regeneration set to braking any time I took my foot off the pedal. Regen is strong enough to slow the car to a predictable point at with only a slight creep remaining to stop with brakes.  The steering is still soft (Macpherson struts) and the tires are smallish so the handling is not really great (but I'm comparing it to my Acura sport sedan).  The EV took some corners rather well when I pushed hard enough to squeak the tires.  Doing my research I find that the EV's tires are bigger than hybrid's so that may also explain why I thought the hybrid sucked so bad.  Unfortunately I don't think the Ioniq has enough range to do a complete home-work-home circuit without a recharge part way except under perfect conditions.  If I'm regularly overriding a low-range warning just to get the last 10 km home, that's no fun.

I still plan to test a Leaf and Kia and a few hybrids before making a decision.  And watching the local Kijiji for a deal worth jumping on.
Late-model Nissan Leaf is not so offensive to my optic nerves as the original.

[SparWeb]

Oops.  I was fooled.

New prices from manufacturer's website.
Used prices from Kijiji and Car Gurus, in Alberta.

Kia Niro New: 47K+, Used, (1-2 years) 43-48K, (3-5 years) 30-35K
Kia EV6 New: 50K+, Used, (1-2 years) 65-75K

Hyundai Ioniq EV New: 49K+, Used, (1-2 years) 45-72K, (3-5 years) 22-32K
Hyundai Kona EV New: 47K+, Used, (1-2 years) - None-, (3-5 years) 37-43K

So it's still a bit too soon to say used car prices are coming down.  I was a bit deceived by a few low asking prices on the Ioniq.  Others are still flying high - many above the asking price of the new model!

(Note: Canadian prices are NOT the same as US prices. Not even USD/CAD conversion.)

[MattM]

Tesla should come with a candle holder.  3-4 candles should be enough to aphysiate you while your car comfortably autodrives you through a snow bank.  At least you won't freeze to death.

[JW]

uknow, well

 The current crop of "EV'S" is high voltage 600v ? then the lithium ion batts. This is a high voltage class of EV.

 But how a about a low voltage EV. I actually have a patent concerning the traction motor for such an application.

 My friend and I were joking about waterbase batteries with consumable electrodes. The next thing were joking about is fish living in the batteries     

[Bruce S]

SparWeb;
Both Hyundi and KIA used cars are currently a big no-no here in St Louis, way to easy to break into and hot-wire.
Been all over the news, even court proceedings.

My FORD 2018 Hybrid still averages 40mpg on the highway, with 45+ in the city(50+ if I keep my foot off the pedal).

Best of luck;
Bruce S

[bigrockcandymountain]

Could you not charge at work? That woud cut the range requirement down by half.

[SparWeb]

I might find a way to charge at work, but none of the building's parking stalls have plug-ins (not even the block-heater variety).  So it wouldn't be easy to arrange.

Bruce I wish I hadn't heard that.  But you're right - of course a natural consequence of ridiculously low supply and high demand is more theft.  Another thing to worry about if I get an EV.

[Bruce S]

SparWeb;
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but knowing is always better than finding out the hard way.
EV around here are a hands off for thieves! Way too easy to merely shut remotely and have OnStar PD send its location along with the very annoying horn going off.

Bruce S



 

[SparWeb]

My pursuit of a car to replace my old one has ended but not where I intended.  You could say I punted.

I tried several cars, aiming for hybrids and full EVs, but I couldn't take the sticker price.  As I noted a few months before, 40K+ is too much to pay for, new or used. 

Example:
I test drove a rare but nifty Honda Clarity, which is a nice plug-in hybrid with a hydrogen version not available in North America.  It drove nicely but the idiot salesman didn't bother to plug it in before our appointment so the remaining 7% battery charge was drained in 5 minutes.  Too short for me to get any perception of its EV behaviour.  Having failed to demonstrate to me the car's key selling point (50 mile battery range in a plug-in hybrid) the salesman still asked me for 42 thousand dollars.  I kinda knew it was coming but I played my part - if he was going to waste my time I was going to waste his.  This particular one was a 2018 model. Can you believe he wanted to sell me a 5-year old car for the new price?

After a few experiences like this, I threw up my hands and bought a car almost identical to the one I have, just one year younger and 250,000 km less mileage.  Paid almost nothing for it.  I now have TWO Acura TSX's, both about 15 years old.  Yeah gas powered but at least the replacement burns a little less than my older one, all due to better factory tuning of the same engine (Honda K24 4-cyl).  Both of these cars seem to run at factory spec performance and efficiency, to this day.  For now, I plan to keep the old one and offer it to my son when he (we can always hope) finishes Uni, gets a job and moves out of the house.

I will try shopping for an EV again some day when prices have come back to some reasonable level.
Someday in the future when everything is reasonable and sensible.
Whenever that happens.
Who knows.

[Mary B]

Until cold weather issues are fixed I won't even consider an EV... and the going up in flames bit...

[bigrockcandymountain]

I totally understand this thinking.  Plenty of life left in lots of older cars that sell for nothing.  There is definitley an environmental argument to be made for running older cars, doing good maintenance and keeping them going for more miles.  After all, it takes a lot of energy to build a new car and recycle an old one. 

An EV fits our mission pretty perfectly though.  Just talk some suckers in to buying them so there will ve some used ones on the market soon.

Our daily driver is a 2003 VW Passat. It gets decent mileage, is fun to drive with a 5 speed, and looks good for the age.  I paid about $2000 for it 5 years ago.  It has been very reliable.  We also have 3 kids, and they fit in the back seat ok. Better now that the oldest is not in a car seat. 

[clockmanFRA]

I totally understand this thinking.  Plenty of life left in lots of older cars that sell for nothing.  There is definitley an environmental argument to be made for running older cars, doing good maintenance and keeping them going for more miles.  After all, it takes a lot of energy to build a new car and recycle an old one. 

An EV fits our mission pretty perfectly though.  Just talk some suckers in to buying them so there will ve some used ones on the market soon.

Our daily driver is a 2003 VW Passat. It gets decent mileage, is fun to drive with a 5 speed, and looks good for the age.  I paid about $2000 for it 5 years ago.  It has been very reliable.  We also have 3 kids, and they fit in the back seat ok. Better now that the oldest is not in a car seat. 

plus 1.

[OperaHouse]

They are starting to report that depreciation on an EV is pretty high. Car prices were downright stupid with covid so I have waited. I've been wanting to get one just for my camp I live at for 5 months. It would be impossible to drive an EV from home to camp.  I'm off grid and my purpose is opposite of everyone else.  I am maxed out at 3K of panels and those are under trees.  My town has charging stations everywhere. It is far hotter than I remember and I want AC at the camp.  Problem solved, use the car battery and drive to get it recharged everyday.

[Bruce S]

They are starting to report that depreciation on an EV is pretty high. Car prices were downright stupid with covid so I have waited. I've been wanting to get one just for my camp I live at for 5 months. It would be impossible to drive an EV from home to camp.  I'm off grid and my purpose is opposite of everyone else.  I am maxed out at 3K of panels and those are under trees.  My town has charging stations everywhere. It is far hotter than I remember and I want AC at the camp.  Problem solved, use the car battery and drive to get it recharged everyday.

It might be due to the stupid prices for new cars/trucks these days, but I'm not seeing the prices for hybrids drop. I watch them kinda close. The Prius now has side markets where you can add a full 2nd battery pack and tap off it for "other uses".
My 2017 Ford Fusion Hybrid still gets 40+ on the highway with the A/C on. The prices on a replacement battery pack is now much lower  than replacing an engine.
However, I would jump all over a 60 - 70s GMC pickup with a small block V8 if people didn't want new car prices for them.

I miss your posts of your camp site!! They are truly inspiring seeing all the stuff you can do with mere planning.

[OperaHouse]

I had been working in the power shed with only a square foot of bench space, it is only 4X6 feet.  I built a garage with an upstairs shop 14 years ago, the garage anyway.  Fixing up the walls and insulating took a lot longer. Not totally done, but finally got around to installing some electric.  This 60V inverter, same as my array, provides 120 and 220V and needs no battery. Powers up and down automatically when there is enough sun.  It is finally starting to come together.  This inverter system is the ideal emergency system.  Just get two used 30V grid tie panels, cheap because nobody wants panels under 350W.  The inverter only cost me $25 new on ebay.  Its 220 50Hz, but most wall warts are universal 100-240VAC and it has 4 USB ports. No battery or CC needed. In an emergency everyone just wants to charge their cell phone. Eating is a secondary concern. Bunch of new projects coming up. Scored a couple 80V KOBAT batterie for free, only one needed to be revived. Two make a nice power pack.

[Bruce S]

Lot cleaner than my workbench!!
Is that one of those light/fan I see overhead?

Cheers
Bruce S

[Mary B]

No matter how big you build a workbench it is to small! LOL Mine is 3'x8' and is covered... no space... the 902mhz 400 watt amplifier project is taking up 4' of it...

[SparWeb]

You've got workbench magnets.  It's a pain, but all workbenches have them.
https://www.fieldlines.com/index.php/topic,150690.msg1061147.html#msg1061147

[OperaHouse]

I swept most everything into a box so I could take that picture.  Left just enough there to make it look like I actually did something. Problem is those boxes are adding up since I never seem to sort thru them again. That is not a fan, though there is a USB fan on the signal generator I just picked up at a garage sale for $1 that makes it tolerable to work.  That is an old GE LED spotlight that I got in a free bin and use for videos. There is a power lead coming out of the side that needs 30V DC supplied thru a 100 ohm resistor as it has to be a dim light source.  I want to make an angled piece of wood for it and eliminate the fixture.  Problem is I have to clean off the table saw.  Here is an un retouched photo of the power shed work bench.

[Bruce S]

Ahh that's more like it :0))
B&D drill on the floor looks familiar

[SparWeb]

It's been a while - I'll update this thread.

The statistics seem to be late.  In the USA there were approximately 10 million new vehicles sold and 1.2 million of them were EVs.  That makes about 10-12% of the new car market.  It's not clear to me if these two numbers are exactly the same meaning, because one might include commercial vehicles while the other doesn't, and the 2023 data from these sources don't seem to be complete yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production
https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2022-statistics/


It's funny that I am still seeing articles about the SAME issues as I saw 10 or more years ago.
People are still uncertain about buying EV's (range anxiety), auto-makers are still not marketing or tailoring them to their customers (one-size-fits-all), and the lack of charging stations, and limited raw material supply are all still concerns being discussed in the media.  Will that never change?

This may be a never-ending agony only in North America.  Europe is already well on its way to parity between EV and ICE sales, while in China the EV market dominates the auto market.  There, buyers are treated to varieties and options to suit their needs, in numerous sizes and configurations of vehicles.  For a country that manufactures 3x more automobiles than the USA, I'm starting to believe they will be soon producing more EV's than all the vehicles produced in the USA.

Here's a look at the challenges in the US auto industry in early 2024:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/auto-industry
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-ev-transition-explained-2659602311

[SparWeb]

Am I getting an EV yet?  Sadly, no. 
The prices are coming down a bit, thankfully. 

[Mary B]

Until they come up with an extreme cold friendly battery NOPE! And a cabin heater that works at -25f... guy I know who has one put a small propane space heater inside the cab t keep from freezing and to thaw the windows inside... his trips are all in town with it so range isn't the issue, not freezing is! He has an F150 for road trips...

[SparWeb]

Yes, I heard some funny stories about EV's not coping with last January's cold snap.

[Bruce S]

There is one group of EVs I'm not seeing in the reports, but I'm kinda brain dead from this last weekend's workout.
There's a sub-group of people purchasing the tini-EVs through Alibaba & Ali-express. There's already a couple of them here in the StL area. 2 are urban only ~max speed held to ~ 50Km/hr.
Unfortunately they are still coming with SLAs in them as the cost of getting here with Li based batteries are still $$$. We don't normally get the long-term arctic temps but this year has been "different". The biggest issue they have is like Mary B stated; freezing inside the cab is a No-Go when trying to
Our charging stations are all over town, so getting to one shouldn't be an issue. Again the issue being that unless you have one of the Apps that shows where they are ya just don't know.
All of the ones I've been around to look at, are also currently underwritten by local gov so they're not even charging $ to be used.
Here at HQ we have two, luckily we got the word out so the City's EVs and local Broadcasting stations come here to charge and say hi. They're also a good source of hi-quality pre-ground coffee beans  .

Cheers
Bruce S

 

 

[bigrockcandymountain]

I always thought i might add a webasto diesel heater for the extreme cold.  Would that make it a hybrid?

I'm seeing prices drop significantly, to the point that they compete just fine against ICE new vehicles price wise. 

None in the "under $5k canadian dollars" range yet, so i guess i remain a spectator.  There are a few every week on the salvage sales that have been crashed.  Still tempted to buy one and do a conversion on an old chassis.  Most of them are Tesla though, and i don't think Tesla is my first choice for a parts donor.  Too much complicated computer stuff.  A nissan leaf or 2 would be better from what i can tell. 

In my opinion, the charging station thing is way overblown.  95% of charging is going to happen at home.  People can't seem to get their head wrapped around that idea. 

[SparWeb]

People can't seem to get their head wrapped around that idea. 

Yes, for you and me it's obvious.  For folks who live in high-rise apartments, not so obvious.
When they add the 250$ per month for their building's limited parking spots (not all have a charger receptacle) the cost of ownership goes up and up.  Park on the open street and it's 150$ but where does the extension cord go?

[bigrockcandymountain]

You know, I actually hadn't considered people that live in apartments at all.  When I drive to a city, all I see is huge houses on tiny lots, with attached garages.  Country people tend to make a lot of comments on how city peole don't know anything about the way we live.

Turns out in this case, I'm being the ignorant one. 

I'm probably the most excited by the V2H and V2L capabilities.  Those are some great reasons for owning an ev, and offset some of the drawbacks like cold weather performance.

I have this dream of an F150 lightning, towing a post pounder.  Instead of a hideously noisy, smelly 9hp honda running the pounder, plus the truck idling all day, it would be electric off the truck battery. 

No more loading a generator either to run power tools.  Pumping wells, heat gun for thawing, branding calves with electric irons, welding.  All these jobs could be done off the truck batteries, without the need for a generator. 

I have made this speech to lots of naysayers about evs.  They mostly just look at me like a lunatic.  No worries, I get that a lot.