I would be very interested in your findings - except I'm having an ASHP installed right now and 8 years is a bit long a time for me to wait to optimise it.

I'm building a house which is not to passivhaus standard but does exceed current UK build requirements for insulation and (i hope) air permeability. I've laid underfloor heating pipes with the ASHP in mind, but due to the fact that i have to use a registered installer (to claim the £5000 grant), i am dependent on the installers and manufacturers knowing what they are doing.
So far I'm not convinced that either of them do.

But I'm doing my own research, and i suspect that once it's commissioned I'll be getting my own spanners out and making improvements - i just have to wait for the warranty period to elapse.
I recently did some fault diagnosis on a 13yrs old GSHP in the local village hall (17th century i think, solid stone walls, but new underfloor heating and floor insulation - 13yrs ago). The heating works well despite it being poorly insulated by todays standards, and the old heat pump that is on or off (as opposed to modern variable speed inverter driven compressors). So I'm expecting your eventual findings to be positive.
I think anout 2/3rds of houses in Norway use heatpumps ( not sure what proportion are air source though), where temps regularly are down to -20°c in winter i believe, and as you say, in absolute terms that's not that cold, and it's the temperature range of the refrigerant that is the limiting factor.
Good luck with your PHD
