I am skeptical of all conspiracy theories, but after reading documentation of Texaco/Chevron control of "large format" NiMH battery patents (found in current hybrids) and their refusal to sell to anyone unless it is for large volume contract (huge PR opportunity wasted, could help "green-wash" oil company, but...)
Govt may "demand" 10 year life before replacement, batteries improving fast these days, big near-term market. Assuming 14-yr lifecycle for car, couldn't initial battery last 7 years? Govt will cave in, here's why:
Volt is a great car in most recent configuration, but best estimates are near $39K. Hummer, Saab, Saturn, Pontiac slated for closing down. G8 and smallest Hummer slated for re-badgeing as a Chevy. UAW and Michigan will demand additional bail-outs.
China BYD worlds biggest manufacturer of Lithium batteries, building factory in Mexico for hybrid car and electric car. Things change, but current estimate is $24K for cheapest model to compete with $39K Volt. (Buffett bought lots of BYD stock)
Ford Escape hybrid sold over 100K units, doubling production now. Also introducing hybrid that looks just like 2010 Toyota Prius/Honda Insight.
Will Obama/congress allow Volt to sink because current battery only lasts 7 years under harsh use?
Govt's job is to establish standards to help consumer (and in the end this also helps companies) Battery unit format should be a package that can be swapped in to Ford/Toyota/Honda/Volt. (OSHA says one worker should not lift more than 60 lbs, so Lithium cell should be 59lb each)
When I buy a flashlight, it MUST take "C" or "D" cells, no funky new format I can't find unless special order. Printers are cheap! unbelieveable! but ink cartridges are expensive and brand-specific.
Sorry if too OT...