A Crude Awakening

[dnix71]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-665674869982904386#

This movie is a few years old, but is still a sober assessment of the world to come.

American lifestyle is going to go downhill big time unless there is a technological miracle soon.

They never mention it, but the only substitute for crude oil that worked on any scale was Nazi Germany's use of coal. Oil is a raw feed material for fertilizer, pesticides and pharmaceuticals (like growth hormones and antibiotics). Without those three you don't have cheap food staples like soy, corn and meat.

http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/86/8611cover.html

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/one-govt-mandated-new-energy-source

There are 3 times as many people in the world as when the switch from coal to oil began, in large part because of cheap food.

Without cheap oil American suburbia becomes unsustainable, and without cheap food, cities become unliveable.

[DamonHD]

My doomer-porn site of choice is theoildrum.com and in particular their 'drumbeat' daily news summary.

I'm not a doomer or I wouldn't have had kids, but I am limiting to below replacement rate (ie 2)!

Rgds

Damon

[richhagen]

Just one of many non-sustainable trends.  I can't foresee what changes lie ahead, but we cannot continue on the current course all that much further without some significant technological advancements.  Even then, there are certain limits to population growth and maintenance which would be very unlikely to be broken.  Rich

[thirteen]

When will the balance between food and starvation become an issue? The more food we create the more people we have. A different power source will be needed for us to live on our world unless we self destruct as humans. Man's best accomplishments are finding ways to kill himself.

Coal seems to be a dirty fuel and oil is nest. Greed drives our world and it is driven by fuel. Our cosumption of oil will increase in leaps and bound over the next 50 years. So will big brothers grip on our lives. Looking foward and to me it seems that being off grid will become a nessity for the common person to just live. So I thank this board for all of the advice you have given to the many who use this board for becoming an off grid person. Thank You all. My venting.

[joestue]

I'm not concerned about it, when oil gets expensive so will everything else, and we will have a nearly infinite supply of solar power by then.

As a feed stock however, at some point we will have to synthesize it from C02.

I only hope the transition happens slowly over 50 years, without the government getting involved.

[adaml]

With regard to food production, population, suburbia etc....

I think I'm correct in saying that Thomas Malthus predicted some of the above back in the 18th century - many discarded his theories out of hand.  It seems now (and then) he had a very valid point?

[willib]

Natural gas is the obvious choice of an alternative fuel.

we can run our cars with it, and our powerplants , and heat our homes with it, and it is recovered right here at home in the USA.

and we can make it ourselves.

Thats pretty sustainable, in my way of  thinking .

[ghurd]

What gets me is the obvious RE projects sitting 95% done, just waiting for generators!

For example, say the Ohio river.

It has power plants built along it to get the coal to them cheap.  The wires are there to accept the power.

Just need to dam it up?

It already is... The locks!

Looks like 50MW capability each, maybe more.  Racine is set up with 2 x 24MW Kaplans.  That's about like 25 Real Big wind turbines?  Except with more constant and predictable output.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_locks_and_dams_of_the_Ohio_River

Then the dam lakes around here too.  

Mosquito Lake, 8000 acres (not including 100+ sq miles of swamp), 27' head.

Pymatuning, 21,000 acres, 35' head.

Shenango, 11,000 acres, 68' head.

And many more smaller lakes, literally dozens withing an hour of me.

G-

[CmeBREW]

I believe it myself -- after all the hundreds of articles and videos I've seen over the last 3 years.  A lot of people and critics are talking about the Ultra-low budget documentary "Collapse".  Even though the presentation is a bit weird, everything he has to say goes in harmony with all I've read for the most part.

I watched it all on Youtube a month ago, but now the Full movie is not there anymore.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WJ0CjGOsG8&feature=rec-LGOUT-exp_r2-2r-1-HM

Ruppert has always been more of a Doomer though. The total cost of the his movie was just a carton of cigarettes.

I fear there is a bigger agenda than just peak oil(&Water&Food) and Global warming this year.

However, there is a million opinions on all these things.

Ghurd's idea makes the most sense, since we've been getting a deluge of rain here in Ohio the last 6 months.

[Ungrounded Lightning Rod]

Back in the '60s the Malthusians were telling us all that by about '85 we'd all be starving in choking pollution.  Instead overweight is the big problem, the air and water are cleaner by far than they were in the '60s, and the native population of the US was reproducing at less than replacement rate - leading to the promotion of several waves of "undocumented immigrants" to "fill the low level jobs Americans 'won't do'".

I'm not worried AT ALL about "running out of oil".  If we ever DO start to run short the price will gradually rise and drive a switch to other energy sources.  Meanwhile technology marches on.

And if P-B7 fusion works out - Polywell, Focus, Tokamak-ish, or something we haven't heard about yet. - coal, oil, wind, AND solar might become a dead issue for millenia, (except for hobbyists) while energy-driven processes take care of other issues.  (Desalination for water, plasma decomposition for toxic molecules, mass spectrometry for radioactives and heavy metals, most of the latter to recycle waste and virtually eliminate mining, ...)

[ghurd]

It sounds like you believe the state of the art scientific technologies are predestined to be doomed to obsolesce?

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."

--Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.

http://www.langston.com/Fun_People/1995/1995BKM.html

[independent]

Dams are environmentally difficult to put through where i live these days.

<rant>

If resistance heating of water/air/food became illegal we would instantly regain a huge proportion of the electrical grid back for use with things that are actually efficient (at a conservative  guess 1/3 - 1/4 of NZs electricity supply freed up (don't know about elsewhere)). Heated water / food / air (warmth) should all be provided by direct means (solar/biomass/natural gas) rather than through conversion of electricity into heat via resistance. What a waste that is. It's not that the grid is undersized it's that people are misusing it and then complaining about how expensive it is. The true cost of electricity supply might not even be being paid for (try replacing or properly repairing the grid / electrical generation & supply and see what that costs.).

</rant>

[fabricator]

I say bring it, the sooner the better, like ripping off a band-aid, I would love to see the total collapse of the petro devils here and in the mid east in my lifetime, then we could get out of there and let em kill each other to their hearts content.

[scottsAI]

Amusing at best.

Beating the mantra of ignorance.

Too bad they got funding to produce such gross miss information.

The only energy shortage we experience will be man made.

USA has reserves exceeding even the ridiculous projections for 80 years. World Total projections are in excess of 150 years.

http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves (out of date)

Fall of Mankind may be imminent, not due to the lack of cheap energy. Also man made.

Alchemy of technology is always missing in projections.

Homes use 2/3 of our energy, when the cost of energy gets high enough then it will be costly to retrofit homes with solar energy negating 2/3 of the oil use.

With solar power $1/watt + electronics, this competes with cheap oil.

http://sunelec.com/?main_page=index

With existing know oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, we are in no danger of running out of cheap energy in 500 years, before then Alchemy of technology will find us solutions to even cheaper energy.

Have fun,

Scott.

[hydrosun]

If you look at history we can see what the future might have in store. In 1970 the US oil production peaked. Since the demand for oil kept going up it was easy for OPEC to raise the prices. We started using less and found other sources, the price came down. Now North Seas oil production is declining Mexico production is declining, demand from China and India is going up. The price spiked at $4 a gallon for gasoline. Exxon and countries with oil made a killing. People who couldn't afford the price used less. Those at the bottom used none. A few years ago there was a spike in natural gas prices. Some US fertilizer manufacturers closed up, and farmers imported fertilizer at a higher cost and maybe used less.

In none of these cases did we run out of oil. But there were winners and losers and adjustments to the restrictions in supply.  

  In the future we will have to make adjustments again. The question is will it be easier to make adjustments in advance when oil is cheaper to power the transition to alternative forms of energy and more efficient use of energy? Or will we wait until the price rises and we can't afford to make the switch and end up with no energy? And will the US be out of luck competing for the oil produced elsewhere or will our military try to control it by force?

I want to take every measure I can to transition to alternative energy and efficiency now, and not wait to be squeezed. I don't see any  downside to doing that irregardless of if peak oil occurs in 2006 or 2030.

Chris

[scottsAI]

Well said!

I was excited when gas hit $4/gal.

Very close to the point for RE to become viable, replacing much of the oil demand.

Of course they knew it too, dropped the price when the demand dropped.

Market is responding quicker to the price hikes, more options today.

Carpooling was almost dead, Resurrection!

Once thing stops me from RE. $$$

Designed Net Zero Energy Home, laid off, no loans. New construction RE cost effective.

Retrofitting not.

[ghurd]

I kind of think imported oil came from where the companies could make the most profit.

A large farm near Kilgore, OH had about 40 oil wells.  "NG?" I asked, "No, oil." he answered.

The wells were producing fine, not showing signs of being empty.

Then for no stated reason, they shut them all down.

That was the very early 70's.

The oil is still here in the US, though it apparently is cheaper to buy it from the middle east employing a 4th world labor force.

About 4 months ago they took the last of the big hit&miss looking engines and above ground piping to the scrap yard.

G-

[fabricator]

I have a hard time falling for the natural gas line, they may be finding more domestic reserves, but guess what happens to the price when more and more cars and more and more power plants are hooking up to natural gas.

[independent]

In many parts of the world, Europe and the UK, $4 a gallon would be welcomed.

 In the UK as of early 2010 they are paying 123p per litre for unleaded petrol. This works out at a 1.61 pound to US dollar ratio to a nice and even $US1.98 per litre. That's US$7.50 ish per US gallon! The price has gone up with a recent a tax increase but they have been paying those kinds of prices for a long time. On top of that the cost of just owning a small van in the part of Europe i visited a few years ago was £1200 a year.

Small efficient cars are the norm and a good proportion of those are modern diesels.

[dnix71]

Electricity is easy to replace, but oil is a raw material for making stuff that electricity won't replace. The ammonia for fertilizer comes from natural gas. There is still no decent high-density substitute for liquid fuels in transportation, either.

Without cheap fertilizer and cheap fuel life becomes hard for the poor (like me).

We are back to 35 hours a week at work and people are having to live off of saved money since extended partial unemployment benefits ran out this week. Gas is back to nearly $3 a gallon (cheap by world standards), but there is no proper mass transit in south Florida. I cannot ride the bus to work without getting up very early and walking the last half-mile, even though I live and work in the same city. I work in a warehouse on my feet all day.

I would be very happy to live in a place where a car wasn't needed. Owning a private auto keeps me poor. But even buying food becomes difficult without private transportaion.

[scottsAI]

Heard some funny laws about the selling price of US oil.

Depending on the date/place of the well was drilled, sets the price.

Why sell your oil below market!

So don't sell, until the laws change.

[TomW]

In my opinion:

The worst part of this oil economy is that in the last couple centuries [less really] we have switched our solar powered food production over to oil powered food production. Sure the sun still powers the Chlorophyll process but oil provides the nutrients. Not even considering that produce that travels 3,000 miles to the store in your neighborhood.

"They" have pretty well managed to convince most of us that we just cannot do for ourselves. Be it food, thought or energy.

Plant a Garden, Ride a Bike. Turn that "stuff" off. Live like you were born to.  Or not.

Just a thought.

Tom

[fabricator]

Tom, the thing that worries me the most is, where the hell are all the kids? In my rural neighborhood there are at least 10 or 12 kids under 10 years old, during the summer, over Christmas break they are no where to be seen, back in the day (had to watch out for velociraptors) whether it be summer or winter when we were out of school we were outside doing something.

This latest generation really worries me, the "outside" is something you need to go through to get to the next house with video games.

[electrondady1]

it's tough to keep the big picture

 in our heads for any length of time.

but try to remember , the game is rigged!

the kids don't go outside because they have been told not to.

a hypnotised population is a lot easier to control

oil prices will drop like a stone if people stop buying/burning the stuff.

there is something called permaculture where you plant, edible plants once ,

and then eat off them the rest of your life!

we don't need 6 billion people.

[Bruce S]

Ahh  The oil crisis. I like these, I'm more worried about pollution/smog than shortage.

Actually what they say in the "small" print is close to being true.

Fact; there is a finite amount of dino-fuel, how much ? wellll that's up for debate.

US shuts its pumps down, so the oil is sitting there waiting for our turn to light up the pumps after everyone else is empty >>> could be.

Plus there's the gobberment reserves "which" we never really know how much there is.

When things look the bleakest they say they're going to open the reserves, then the spot prices start going down 'cause the doom-n-gloom is over...Sure...

Here's a cute little more oil to add.... after a little "test" I'm doing.

Coffee oil, yup that same stuff floating on top of your Starbucks late'.

US imports or uses about 16B(illion) lbs of coffee yearly. Now of those 16B lbs, there's those grounds. Nice stuff, worms don't really like it..but put up with it for the liquid.

Anyway here we have of the 16B lbs, ~14B spent coffee grounds, of that about is 12 - 15% oil by weight. So we have roughly 2B lbs of oil which since the oil is lighter than water and water weighs about 8lbs/gal; so lets go with easy math and say 5lbs/gal so we now have 400M gals of coffee oil this then can be directly used in DanB's listeroid or can be changed to Bio-D, but changing to Bio-D can be costly since the coffee grounds (of which has high-sulfur content and FFAs) has be to doubly checked.

So the price would be roughly double of making Bio-D for me... that takes it up over $1.82USD/per gallon oil of rough oil, this is including the spent energy to buy, stir and check the finished oil.

 Crude oil is what coming in at $71.00USD/per barrel? A barrel holds about 55gals of unprocessed crude?

My math tells me the coffee oil is cheaper even not counting the wonderful cup of plain black goodness sitting right here with me .

NOW: to be honest; I've only done about 18lbs of coffee grounds so far, but it works just fine, actually easier to process since I don't have the crap-ola to deal with from WVO, just nice dry grounds to use in soil to help keep it loosened up.

Further more coffee is and can be considered a "GREEN/ Fair Trade/ Organic" substance, since it grows and absorbs CO2

My process only get me about 5% of the oil, which makes it even higher in cost, but if the US brings in 400M gals/per year that what 8K gals of Bio-D and I know I'm not best at doing this.

Shortage? maybe.... but not an energy shortage, just different processes needed.

AND Ahhh the aroma...

JMO Cheers;

Bruce S

 

[Ronnn]

Hi Scott, Do you know what's missing in your statements about how much oil is left? The rate quantifier. It is usually and I quote, "At the current rate of consumption." The use of the phrase `current rate of consumption' is an obfuscation, a popular political tool for monied interests. I don't mean to imply that you are the obfuscator.  You didn't include it in you post.

The reason I bring this up is further explained here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

At this link there is a series of 7 or 8 minute mini vids explaining what's wrong with the current rate of consumption as a time quantifier for how much oil there is. The speaker is a professor emeritus of physics at a Colorado university. The talk is on Exponential Growth. This concept and it's associated math makes a mockery of `at the current rate of consumption'.

It explains why this is with high school math. Essentially it says if you overlay a 60 minute time line over the history of oil consumption and you place a point at the place where 50% of the worlds known oil reserves are all that's left, that point will be at 59 minutes. That is an over simplified explanation of how exponential growth works.  And we are past the 50% point IIRC.  It would be better to let the math guy explain it. The shortened time line is mostly for impact but it isn't misleading. It's just an easily understood example of how exponential growth works. I hope I've remembered that correctly.

Also on utube is Crash Course which looks at energy, economy, environment. This seems the best way to understand these subjects because they are so inter-related. I haven't seen all of crash  course yet. This guy is a scientist with an MBA so he could be anything politically but his material is gathered from respectable sources and he identifies his opinions as such. There is a 3 minute video that outlines what is in the crash course and there links to the other videos. Most are very short and to the point, and are laying out things that are easily verifiable.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Ron

[Airstream]

In those countries where the cost is astronomical it's because they tax the fuel - everyone pays the same for the energy, only the tax rates change. Amazing how such tiny countries (compared to non-east-coast US states) inflict so much pain on their citizenry...

[scottsAI]

Ronnn,

My goal is to get people thinking.

Conusmption data:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/txt/ptb1110.html

In the 70's the projection was: Earth had 30 years to tops 40 years of oil left.

We are well past those dates with century plus of oil reserves. I contend over 500yr of energy.

The projections of the 70's were based on Exponential demand, it never happened.

Demand peaked in 1979 took another 10 years for demand to exceed the prior peak.

Since 1979, today's demand is only 31.7% higher 31 years later! This includes opening up a new market in China. (85.90/65.22= 1.317)

Exponential growth keeps rearing it's ugly head.

I keep hoping the cost of oil will increase, will motivate RE. As long as there is cheap oil RE will not succeed until its cheaper than oil. BTW, that day is getting near, $1/w PV.

Earth receives Solar energy in 1 day nearly equal to all the energy the world uses in a year.

Solar will ultimately own the energy market. People like to bring up liquid fuel... :-)

I contend: Alchemy of technology is always missing in projections.

Alchemy of technology does not happen until there is need.

When it comes to money people are greedy / selfish / tiny minded. Offered a guy two choices, one cost twice, yet pay back in 9 months. He bought the cheaper! Then complained what it cost using it.

Often difficult to get people to make an investment to their benefit.

No obfuscator here, just the opposite. Clear thinking.

For me long range investments are King. Build better than Energy Star equivalent home in 1986. Enjoying the savings since. Payback less than 4 years. Only person I know with lower utility bills is my sister, she sets 60F and must use candles!

Have fun,

Scott.

[Gary D]

 Last I checked Bruce, crude barrel is 45 gallons...

[Ungrounded Lightning Rod]

Past performance, while no guarantee, is the best indicator of future performance.

Technical capabilities have been accelerating on an exponential since at least the Renaissance.  Even during the Great Depression there was improvement.  I see no reason for it go slam to a halt now.

Even at a linear extrapolation much of current technology will become obsolete shortly.  I expect the future scenario to be closer to science fiction "The Singularity" speculations than a sudden crash into stagnancy.  (Though the governments' current anti-tech "solutions" to "global warming" and other "catastrophes" have potential to drive tech underground and push things backward.)

Note, however, that "obsolete" doesn't mean "it stops working".  It just means "If you build something now there are choices so much better that, absent some special circumstance, this one typically won't be picked."  And technological improvements or economic shifts can also boost "obsolete" technologies back into competition.  We're seeing all three (special circumstances, economic shifts, and technological improvement) with R.E. - especially with wind and water power.

[ghurd]

That's what I meant! (see quote from 1899)

Imagine the cost of a standard 10'er, using the same parts with the same specs 10 years ago.

Or 25 years ago.

Even 5 years ago a 1G SD card cost what?  Too much.

Now a Two pack of 4G SD cards are almost free.

A couple years ago N40 was an extravagance. Now N42~45 is the norm.  N48 is not so bad.  Now N52 is not worth the cost.

I recall when N50 was almost the Holy Grail of "N", almost no more possible than >C^2.

Now N52 cost less per cubic inch than the old $8 each surplus #29.

What is next?

Questions about if the extra cost of N90 is worth it considering the cheap N75?

G-

[Bruce S]

Gary, thanks for the update.

Will redo my math and repost.

Cheers

Bruce S

[sbotsford]

If you have cheap energy you can make fuel.  From a viewpoint of simplicity, use without too much retrofitting, and distribution through existing pipelines, methanol is a candidate.

At present prices, there's a LOT of tarsands that are economically recoverable.

There's some very interesting work right now with solid carbon fuel cells:

Take coal -- distil to coke, uses the volatiles to make liquid fuels.  Use the coke to run solid carbon fuel cells.  Waste heat from the fuel cells provides the process energy for the liquid fuel manufacturing.  80% overall efficiency.  AND the CO2 comes off as an almost pure stream ready for sequestering.

EEStor has a prototype 'battery' (actually a capacitor) that in a 2 cubic foot block, can store about 50 KwHr of energy.  They figure mass production quantities should be bgweeen 2-3 grand.  This makes off grid FAR more practical.    To me the real killer on running a generator is they are so inefficient when not run at full load.  This would allow you to go solar/wind for most of your energy, run a generator during the slow season to charge up the battacitor.  $40/KwHr for storage is a real game changer.

Two companies I know of are working on harnessing high altitude winds -- stuff that blows at 30,000 feet or so.  Lots of engineering obstacles, the biggest being a lighter weight tether cable, but doable in principle.

Wood gasification holds promise for both power generation on a large scale, and heating on a small scale.  I would love to find a wood gassifier heater for my greenhouse.  Ideally, I want to maximize charcoal production to use as a soil amendment on my farm.  So far I've not found a DIY gassifier that is suitable.

Amorphous silicon solar is getting good enough and cheap enough that we'll start seeing it on the sides of buildings.

I'm not worried about running out of energy.  The transistion will be, shall we say, 'interesting' expecially in the U.S. with their attitudes about large cars.