Will China's threat to reduce rare earth exports to U.S. impact DIY wind?

[MattM]

http://washingtonindependent.com/100834/obama-administration-says-it-will-investigate-chinas-green-tech-trade-policies

Apparently the U.S. Steelworkers union launched an 'official' protest of Chinese trade policies, which the Obama Administration accepted.  It looks like the Chinese are going to reduce the supply of rare earth magnets to the United States as a protest.  It may be temporary, it may not.  Will this cause problems for the DIY wind generator folks in the United States?  Or will they just import the rare earth element-based magnets through an alternative, indirect route and pay a little higher price until the sanctions are lifted?

[Kwazai]

I looked at this at about this time last year. My understanding at the time was that the US had ample amounts still in the ground and that the chinese had been 'dumping' them on the market, such that it was cheaper to buy chineses than to mine(?) them.
Mike

[bob g]

it was reported yesterday 10/10/2010 that the chinese have cut off exports of rare earth material

i don't know if it is export of the material or finished products such as magnets?

it might be they don't want to export the raw materials, but will continue to manufacture and export
finished magnets?  it would be a smart move on their part.

bob g

[ghurd]

i don't know if it is export of the material or finished products such as magnets?

Neos are in a Lot of very common stuff now. 
Hard drives, ipod type stuff, CD/DVD players, cameras, some high-end printers/scanners and stepper motors, toys, purses, jewlery, etc, etc, etc.
Most of it says "Made in China".
I doubt it will include finished products.

No idea what an ipod uses a neo for. 
G-

[dnix71]

I saw a report from China that said they expect to run out of certain strategic metals within 15-20 years. That was the given reason for the export ban. If there really is a shortage then everybody better look to alternatives. If things get tough governments will keep the 'good stuff' for themselves and us peons will have to settle for what's left.

The Chinese and Japanese have been in each other's face lately, too. It isn't that they don't like the US. The way the Japanese roughed them up in WW2 and earlier they probably don't want us to be their enemy, too.

[Perry1]

The embargo will NOT affect the export of finished manufactured magnets. It focuses on the raw materials prior to processing. The problem is at the root of the developing trade war between China, US, and Japan. Most attention is focused on the heavy reliance of Neo for automotive hybrid drivetrains whose consumption trumps the other uses by far. Quantities for DIY or even utility scale wind does not really start to enter the picture yet although it may as more and more PMA utility turbines are developed. There will be much bickering and posturing driven by the auto industries first.

Currently China provides 90-95% of rare earth metals for the world. They have flooded the market with cheap Neo. There are some reserves in the US still but none is currently being mined, shut down by restrictive mining environmentalists. There are a handful of companies ramping up operations to start mining. Molycorp comes to mind with their mine expansion in California (you know how they love mining there). According to the rare earth metals mining report, no REM's were mined in the US in 2010. We pulled up cheap and offshored all that.

Perry

[SparWeb]

No idea what an ipod uses a neo for. 
G-

The speaker, maybe?

Some people see this as a single-element issue.  Actually it's broader than that.  Tantalum, samarium, neodymium, radium, barium, heck even uranium, ALL the stuff on the bottom half of the periodic table have their uses, but are unhealthy for humans.  Much of it is very valuable, such commodities are mostly indistinguishable from many sources, and the quantities to transport are generally small enough that it is very easy to trade worldwide.  The situation makes it very easy for worldwide competition to go to the lowest bidder.  If China shuts down trade of Neo, or several such minerals, other sources will pop up to fill the gap, a new (still cheap) price will be settled quickly, and likely by one or two of the next-lowest-bidders.  With many countries possessing deposits of such minerals (Australia, Canada, US, Russia, Congo, South Africa, etc.) the inequalities of the world will determine who the next low-cost source will be.

It takes a very big crisis, or a thoroughly planned strategic decision for any country to refuse lowest-cost mineral supplies for their industries.  I do not envy the politicians who contemplate putting their heads on the chopping block in this way, no matter how moral it would be to do so.  They are, of course, less vulnerable in a communist country like China.  If the issue were to enter mass public consciousness in democratic countries (yeah, right) then suddenly there might be political will to prefer sources of materials that don't kill thousands of people per year, or pollute the drinking water of millions. 

But we have economists to prevent us from deluding ourselves...

[richhagen]

One analysis of this that I saw indicated that the reductions may also be aimed at forcing foreign manufacturers to build plants to build motors, capacitors, and other products that use these materials within China in order to be guaranteed a steady supply of these materials.  If the issue was just about conserving these materials, then sanctions affecting the export of finished products containing these materials would likely have also been included in the new policy. 

[fabricator]

Then again, it could all back fire on the Chi Coms, there are no doubt many places on this rock with deposits of rare earths, market forces will simply seek out these for exploitation.

[Tritium]

They will get really friendly if food shipments from the US are reduced I would suspect.

Thurmond

[Ungrounded Lightning Rod]

They will get really friendly if food shipments from the US are reduced I would suspect.

The US USED to be "the breadbasket of the world".  But that was decades ago.  We're now a net IMPORTER of food.

We've "offshored" our food production.  Further, some recent changes in water policies have turned California's Central Valley into a dust bowl (and similarly impacted some other farming areas, such as the Klamath valley in Oregon).

[Perry1]

The US USED to be "the breadbasket of the world".  But that was decades ago.  We're now a net IMPORTER of food.

That's fine with me as I am buying up imported toothpaste in order to accumulate enough lead to finish a battery project I am working on.

Perry

[Bruce S]

They will get really friendly if food shipments from the US are reduced I would suspect.

The US USED to be "the breadbasket of the world".  But that was decades ago.  We're now a net IMPORTER of food.

We've "offshored" our food production.  Further, some recent changes in water policies have turned California's Central Valley into a dust bowl (and similarly impacted some other farming areas, such as the Klamath valley in Oregon).

Hate to be the fly in the ointment but this statement is wrong.
 The USA exports more food now than we have in the past, China IS one of our largest buyers too.
We also send boat loads of rice to N. Korea, and have been for decades now, does anyone remember back when Clinton was still president? and N. Korea started threatening to come across the border? that was because he in a quiet show of force stopped the boats for just 3 days.
Plus we still export food to Vietnam, Cuba.
AND the USA is second only to the entire EU for food exports.

WE are still the bread basket of the world. Its a shame too since there are so many hungry people in our own country.

Only using the facts YMMV
Bruce S

[ghurd]

Hate to be the fly in the ointment but this statement is wrong.
 The USA exports more food now than we have in the past,
We also send boat loads of rice to N. Korea, and have been for decades now... Plus we still export food to Vietnam, Cuba.

Its a shame too since there are so many hungry people in our own country.

I wonder (with so many hungry people, a deficit out of control, etc),  How many of those countries are PAYING for the food we send?

If N. Korea goes back to eating their children, they would have less time and money to develop nuke technology?
G-

[dnix71]

http://www.physorg.com/news/2010-10-japan-rare-earth-minerals-govt.html

Japan's internal stash will last until next spring according to reports. This might get ugly. There are supposed to be 50lbs of various rare earth metals in a Prius.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE57U02B20090831

If Japan has to shut down car production for lack of material that might breaks things there. Their economy hasn't been doing that well for a long time anyway.

No rare earth metals also means no computer hard drives and nice samarium cobalt headphones and speakers.

It time for everyone else to open and reopen mines and smelters and get busy making their own.

[Bruce S]

I've read quite a bit and went even further on this and spoke with people both from China and a few research engineers located in China's major city today.
Happen to be on a call with a site not able to transmit data to us.
Luckily they only had Google loaded on the computer and removing it cleared the active-X issue .

Much of what we're hearing is kinda sorta true, BUT< China has been talking about this for much of the 2nd Q this year > and now it's headlines.
They're taking hits from everywhere about the loss of lives that continue to happen ... still...
So they're response is to internalize and see what the H^*(&^*( is going on.
I do not mind them cutting back on mining if it means saving lives, real savings not media related savings.

We ( the western world) have gotten a bit complacent about building with the wonderful magnets coming from these metals.
Maybe we forgot how much processing goes into getting to them and then processing everything.
A little extra conservation will go along way.
I personally plan on getting rich selling all the HD magnets I've been rescuing from bad HDs.

Just another view point...
Bruce S
 

[Bruce S]

Hate to be the fly in the ointment but this statement is wrong.
 The USA exports more food now than we have in the past,
We also send boat loads of rice to N. Korea, and have been for decades now... Plus we still export food to Vietnam, Cuba.

Its a shame too since there are so many hungry people in our own country.

I wonder (with so many hungry people, a deficit out of control, etc),  How many of those countries are PAYING for the food we send?

If N. Korea goes back to eating their children, they would have less time and money to develop nuke technology?
G-

G- Not sure, but the world food bank is up in arms about the costs of food coming to the banks up 50 - 90 % in costs.

The real interesting thing was when Clinton shut off the N. Korea food shipment and how quickly they responded.
I don't wish for any child to go hungry, but I do mind feeding an Army that is still pointing rifles and really big guns at us.
Besides the rare earth metals from China problem will be mute soon Vietnam has untapped stores of them and they're good buddies with Japan.

Cheers
Bruce S


 

[Ungrounded Lightning Rod]

They will get really friendly if food shipments from the US are reduced I would suspect.

The US USED to be "the breadbasket of the world".  But that was decades ago.  We're now a net IMPORTER of food.

We've "offshored" our food production.  Further, some recent changes in water policies have turned California's Central Valley into a dust bowl (and similarly impacted some other farming areas, such as the Klamath valley in Oregon).

Hate to be the fly in the ointment but this statement is wrong.
 The USA exports more food now than we have in the past, China IS one of our largest buyers too.

Your statements and mine are not contradictory.  You said we still export a lot of food.  I said we currently import more than we export, and that certain large food-growing areas of the US have recently become barren due to the fed cutting off the water (so the trend can be expected to continue and increase).

My point was not that the US is no longer exporting food to China.  It is that our ability to do that has shrunk drastically and is continuing to shrink.

If there is sufficient disruption of international trade or devaluation of the dollar you may find the US losing its ability to import food for its own people.  At that point either the remaining domestic production gets redirected to keep the hungry mobs at bay or the US has a famine while the domestic production continues to be exported (ala the Irish Potato Famine, when they were raising more than enough wheat and other crops to feed the peasants but the English laws resulted in its export, while the Irish starved and/or emigrated).

[Bruce S]

ULR;
 I know the US import lots of "stuff" lots of sugar based food items.
Most of it is demand driven now more and more as the face of the US changes.
Can you send me the link showing we import more than we export?
Pure luck for me  my wife is a Chef and knows a whole Peck if SYSCO food buyers, and with 80F weather before the storms rolled through this past Sunday I asked While we grilled Halibut and Pork tender loin, for an honest answer about this very subject and got shocked looks back at me, even they had not heard this either.
Knew of the lower than last year harvest of soybeans ( even tho still in record levels) And that the US loves Mangos!!

If you have a link I'd sure like to read it.
Thanks
Bruce S
 

[richhagen]

If Wikipedia can be trusted, then the U.S. is the third largest producer of food in the World, at least in terms of dollar value, behind China and India, however, per capita, the U.S. produces more food than either of those two countries.

This may account for why the U.S. is the largest food donor:  5 billion dollars worth in 2008 according to the United States Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs at www.state.gov.

Rich

[SparWeb]

Those still interested in the Lanthanides and Actinides, can listen to this news radio installment (1/2 hour) on the subject:

http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/2010/10/oct-2910---pt-3-rare-earth-elements.html

Plus a bunch of other articles and radio spots on the subject.